The Great Doomsday Election: how stressed are you?

[Noodles]

I'm far more worried than I should be. Even a win for Harris will most likely not change that WW3 is on the brink to start soon.
The Orange Baboon at the wheel would speed up things most likely, but still..

Actually the one thing that Trump might do is avert that.

By handing Russia Ukraine on a silver platter.

 

[Noodles]

Yeah I'm stressed, but also feeling like I may as well be in a foreign country too. California is, I'm sure, locked down. It'll go blue with or without me.

Yeah, Illinois here in general seems about rhe same level of "overalnsane and safe" as California, but that hasn't stopped me from getting increasingly frustrated at all the stupid idiots in the country everywhere else.

Personally, I have very little doubt that the entire GOP is going to get absolutely rolled across the board.

My fear now is how the violent terrorist MAGA cult will react. Whats more annoying is, when they have to roll out the National Guard in defense, that will just feul the brainwashed dillusion these idiots have that "ThE LeFt iS oPpreSsInG Us."

Which will just spur them into more violence.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

Actually the one thing that Trump might do is paudonavert that.

By handing Russia Ukraine on a silver platter.

Right. I'm worried about WWIII either way. Just surrendering to Putin isn't really an acceptable solution.

Trump is also more likely to escalate the conflicts in the Middle East which Biden/Harris are trying to deescalate.

 

[Sid]

Actually the one thing that Trump might do is paudonavert that.

By handing Russia Ukraine on a silver platter.

I don't think that the EU and the UK will let him do so.
Prognoses are, that only 2 major Western European forces be it the combination France+UK, Germany + France, UK+Germany are already more than enough to bring Russia down if needed, when only using conventional weapons on two sides.

When the big ones are used, it is the end of the world anyhow, with or without the help of the USA.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Actually the one thing that Trump might do is paudonavert that.

By handing Russia Ukraine on a silver platter.

If he does that, how long do you think it will be before Putin pushes things a bit further by, for example, invading one of the Baltic Republics, now NATO members but formerly Soviet republics after their annexation by the USSR under the Nazi-Soviet pact, and attempting to occupy a narrow stretch along the border, on the argument that, NATO commitments notwithstanding, Trump isn't going to be interested in a direct military confrontation with Russia over a few hundred square kilometres in a country neither he nor most of his supporters could find on the map?

At this point, the whole NATO alliance is in question, assuming Trump hasn't pulled out before then.

 

[Monica Dream]

Which will just spur them into more violence.

Civil war is inevitable at this point, or an extended period of terrorism like Ireland's The Troubles.

 

[Noodles]

If he does that, how long do you think it will be before Putin pushes things a bit further by, for example, invading one of the Baltic Republics, now NATO members but formerly Soviet republics after their annexation by the USSR under the Nazi-Soviet pact, and attempting to occupy a narrow stretch along the border, on the argument that, NATO commitments notwithstanding, Trump isn't going to be interested in a direct military confrontation with Russia over a few hundred square kilometres in a country neither he nor most of his supporters could find on the map?

At this point, the whole NATO alliance is in question, assuming Trump hasn't pulled out before then.

Hard to say, but I think Putin doesn't want a direct conflict with NATO. Right now he has a very strong, propaganda fueled illusion of a direct conflict eith NATO. But its more or less purely between Russia and a heavily supported Non NATO Ukraine.

Now, if Trump rolls in, and says, "The US is leaving NATO", that would become much more of a concern for sure.

 

[Noodles]

Civil war is inevitable at this point, or an extended period of terrorism like Ireland's The Troubles.

It'll probably be the terrorism thing. You can't really split the country like with the first Civil War very easily.

I actually really fear for poor Harris and Walz, because these idiots will probably be gunning for them daily.

 

[Monica Dream]

It'll probably be the terrorism thing. You can't really split the country like with the first Civil War very easily.

Nope, you're right. It's ideological and cultural not geographical.

 

[Scylla Rhiadra]

I think MAGA is old, increasingly unsure of itself, and knows it's on the way out -- which is precisely why it is so ferocious. They really are yesterday's news ("yesterday" being the 1840s), and like most communities that see themselves fading into impotence and irrelevance, they are putting up a desperate last ditch stand. That doesn't mean they can't win this election, but it does mean, I believe, that even if they do, it will be a Pyrrhic victory. There's a much younger, more progressive demographic that is really beginning to make itself heard.

At least, this is what I am telling myself. Please don't disabuse me.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

Civil war is inevitable at this point, or an extended period of terrorism like Ireland's The Troubles.

I don't think either side is nearly organized enough for a civil war. But domestic terrorism will get worse.. absolutely.

 

[Soen Eber]

I was thinking this morning that if Trump wins, there's no way Poland is going to stand by and watch Ukraine get totally steamrolled; the fear and hatred is that deep, and they're going to need to keep Ukraine as a buffer state. They might have to leave NATO so Western European members don't get implicated in these actions, and push their own troops to establish a safe line to keep part of Ukraine intact as a buffer state. I could also see them basing F-16's there to create a cordon sanitaire, with tactic support from the Baltic states and Finland (at least in the way of supplies) since they'll be on the hot seat if Russia is free to act against them absent the Ukrainians keeping them busy.

It could get ugly, but Poland and the Baltic would be facing an existentialist crisis and feel themselves as being forced into doing so if Trump wins and withdraws American support from NATO, even if he doesn't force a total break in relations.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I don't think either side is nearly organized enough for a civil war. But domestic terrorism will get worse.. absolutely.

"Civil War" can describe a wide variety of civil conflicts, I think. Something that worries me is what happens if Trump ends up appointed as president, despite the outcome of the election, as a result of legal and procedural shenanigans in various state courts and legislatures, the Supreme Court and Congress.

Trump then tries to mobilise parts of the National Guard to round up suspected undocumented immigrants in Los Angeles. The Governor of California and the Mayor of Los Angeles refuse to cooperate. The governors of Texas and Florida are only too pleased to allow Trump to mobilise their national guards to carry out the arrests and haul them off to camps.

What happens next, if the Governor and Mayor order their National Guard and the LA police to protect California residents from what they consider unlawful arrest and detention?

 

[Casey Pelous]

...all while trying not to eat everything in the fridge.

Wait. You're saying that like it's something not to do?

Well, crap.

The prophylactic dosages of tequila are okay, though, right?

 

[Soen Eber]

"Civil War" can describe a wide variety of civil conflicts, I think. Something that worries me is what happens if Trump ends up appointed as president, despite the outcome of the election, as a result of legal and procedural shenanigans in various state courts and legislatures, the Supreme Court and Congress.

Trump then tries to mobilise parts of the National Guard to round up suspected undocumented immigrants in Los Angeles. The Governor of California and the Mayor of Los Angeles refuse to cooperate. The governors of Texas and Florida are only too pleased to allow Trump to mobilise their national guards to carry out the arrests and haul them off to camps.

What happens next, if the Governor and Mayor order their National Guard and the LA police to protect California residents from what they consider unlawful arrest and detention?

I think we've already seen this strategy in his first term: cut off all federal funds. I doubt there's enough will for the Trump forces to actually start an organized military campaign.

 

[Soen Eber]

Wait. You're saying that like it's something not to do?

Well, crap.

The prophylactic dosages of tequila are okay, though, right?

I'm stocked on ice cream.

 

[Katheryne Helendale]

I'm stocked on ice cream.

Mmm, ice cream topped with chocolate liqueur! And cherries!

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

How to Think About Politics Without Wanting to Kill Yourself

“For the most part, it is wrong to think of elections as contests between “good” and “bad” candidates. With few exceptions, it is more accurate to divide most politicians into two broad categories: Enemies, and Cowards. The enemies are those politicians who are legitimately opposed to your policy goals. The cowards are those politicians who may agree with your policy goals, but will sell you out if they must in order to protect their own interests. Embrace the idea that we are simply pushing to elect the cowards, rather than the enemies. Why? Because the true work of political action is not to identify idealized superheroes to run for office. It is, instead, to create the conditions in the world that make it safe for the cowards to vote the right way.”

“Under this framework, you can set aside the tedious feelings of disappointment that come with holding moral views while also supporting any politician. Will your favorite candidate do something bad? Almost certainly. After all, they are cowards. The onus is on us to give the cowards a soft path to the moral choice. The education necessary to equip citizens with the facts; the persuasion necessary to move public opinion to the right place; the organizing necessary to mobilize people to fight for the right thing. These things are the substance of “politics.” Elections can be seen as just another organizing task, one in an endless procession of efforts necessary to arrange the chess pieces of power in a way that will, eventually, produce the righteous outcome.”

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Friendly reminder Americans outnumber Canadians 10 to 1 and your emotional support Canadian is getting dog-piled right now.

 

[Free]

Some highly reliable polling data:

Dan Chaon (@danchaon.bsky.social)

What we know so far:

bsky.app