2020 U.S. Presidential elections

detrius

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My husband was just telling me about a friend who has a lot of land on the texas border he has been batttling the feds over. They are pouring concrete as we speak. But many of these ranchers etc. whose land is being confiscated still plan to remain Trump cultists. Trump could toss their children into the Rio Grande and they would remain loyal.
Well, then just go to those who aren't fine with having their property taken away and put them in ads that run 24/7. Let them tell everyone how Trump uses the federal government to drive them off their land.
 

Sid

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Well, then just go to those who aren't fine with having their property taken away and put them in ads that run 24/7. Let them tell everyone how Trump uses the federal government to drive them off their land.
If a government wants to build a new highway, they have to buy the land and sometimes courts can force you to sell if anything else has failed, if they judge national interest is more important than the individual interest.
Do the others care? Nope they are happy the road will be finally build.
So the Republican wall believers don't give s*** about the farmers who see their land 'stolen'.
 

Casey Pelous

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Well, then just go to those who aren't fine with having their property taken away and put them in ads that run 24/7. Let them tell everyone how Trump uses the federal government to drive them off their land.
I don't think you understand. In their minds, it is unfortunate that those folks are being driven off their land, but, by golly, at least it is for a racist cause.
 

Salome

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Some 2016 deja vu for you


Don't believe it. The race is a whole lot closer than this. A LOT closer.
No, it’s not.

The only reason we’re sweating this election at all is because of what we may not know about vote tampering and suppression efforts. There is nothing else that indicates this race is close.

Comparing it to 2016 is faulty for many reasons, but the main ones are:

1) Pollsters in 2016 did not separate the white vote by education. That has been corrected to make the polls we have today more accurate.

2) In 2016, many crucial state polls did not echo national polls. This wasn‘t weighted appropriately by pollsters. Right now state polls are mirroring national trends.

3) Following Comey’s announcement, the 2016 polls showed tightening indicating a swing toward Trump. Nothing indicates such a swing now.

4) There were more undecided voters in 2016 which allowed for more more uncertainty than we have right now.

5) Inds and NPAs broke 10+ points in favor of Trump in 2016. Currently all indications are that the reverse is true in this election.

6) Clinton’s lead was never as strong or stable as Biden’s at any point.

If you want to argue that there‘s always a chance that there’s some unknown factor out there we can’t foresee, that’s one thing (and that’s why 538 has a very bear-ish 10% possibility for a Trump win compared to other pollsters). But comparing poll forcasts between 2016 and right now with just a vague insistence the race is closer has no evidentiary basis.
 

Sid

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Chickens - eggs - hedge.......
Let's wait and see. 1 day and a bunch of hours and minutes from now, we should be wiser about the results

The (for America) huge turn up so far, makes polls less reliable IMHO.
Where is the surplus that normally can't be bothered to vote, actually voting for?
Who knows, it might all be MAGAs who fear to loose their god to the democratic devil.
It can be mainly Dems as well, who want to kick Trumpty Dumpty out of the office.
Or.... the polling stations can be terribly empty tomorrow, because everybody who cares already has cast their votes.

We simply don't know for sure.
 

Dakota Tebaldi

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No, it’s not.

The only reason we’re sweating this election at all is because of what we may not know about vote tampering and suppression efforts.
Unless you've been living in a cave or something, we actually know a whole lot about suppression efforts. This isn't some kind of back-room skullduggery that's been going on; voter suppression efforts are rampant, public, and have strong vocal political backing. The only unknown is how effective they will be in the end; but there is no reasonably denying that their effect ABSOLUTELY makes the race a whole lot closer than "Biden has a 90% chance of winning" implies. Biden might have a 90% of winning if everyone who wanted to vote for him, and by law has a right to, was actually able to cast a vote and have it counted. We already know for a fact that is not the reality of the situation, so "90%" is just grossly misleading.
 
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Salome

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This isn't some kind of back-room skullduggery that's been going on; voter suppression efforts are rampant, public, and have strong vocal political backing.
And with the exception of Alabama and one or two other cases, we’ve won and overturned those efforts. So what, exactly, are you referring to and in which states?

but there is no reasonably denying that their effect ABSOLUTELY makes the race a whole lot closer than "Biden has a 90% chance of winning" implies.
Based on what?

Biden might have a 90% of winning if everyone who wanted to vote for him, and by law has a right to, was actually able to cast a vote and have it counted. We already know for a fact that is not the reality of the situation, so "90%" is just grossly misleading.
Actually the only thing grossly misleading is the notion that you have any insight that experts don’t.
 

Sid

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I've learned the lesson in 2016.
I went to sleep that night, we are six hours ahead of the US east coast, nothing to worry about.
Clinton had it in her pocket. I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the Wednesday early news.
Yeah right.
I ain't gonna take an early night tomorrow. Keep my fingers crossed.
46 Joe Biden is not a given in my book. No matter what the forecasters predict.
 
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Jolene Benoir

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Yeah, this time around I am not allowing myself any hope. I am incredibly frightened, something which I was not in 2016. In 2016, I was dubious that he could win. In 2016, I thought a whole lot more of my fellow electorate. In 2016, I knew what kind of man he is, but thought there wasn't really a way that America would put such a man in office. I was angry about his Russian fuckery, and fearful of what he may do if he was elected, but I didn't believe that was going to happen.

This time? We've seen how he rules, and brothers and sisters, it is terrifying. It's 10x that now. There's a reason he isn't even pretending to lay out a plan for his next four years, and that reason is because it is so fucking awful that he dare not tell the voters before election day.

I see the masses of people at his nazi rallies. I see them everywhere, from social media to out and about in the public to their blocking highways and I see numbers; numbers that might make this much closer than we expect. If that happens and Biden is still the winner I fully expect him to steal it.

Yeah, I don't dare hope.
 

Dakota Tebaldi

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And with the exception of Alabama and one or two other cases, we’ve won and overturned those efforts. So what, exactly, are you referring to and in which states?
"Only one or two other cases"...right, like, Texas for instance successfully restricting early-voting drop boxes to one per county? Yeah that might be "just one case"; but do you seriously want to act like that "one case" hasn't successfully repressed at least tens, and conceivably hundreds, of thousands of votes all by itself?

And that's just the pre-show. We already know that the Main Event is scheduled for after Election Day proper, as far as court challenges go.

Actually the only thing grossly misleading is the notion that you have any insight that experts don’t.
My only insight is that they were spectacularly wrong four years ago, and that all by itself is enough to stunt my confidence that this time around they definitely have it all figured out because Reasons.

I'll happily go around spiking the football about a landslide when the votes are actually in and the election gets called. Until then, this is still the fight of our lives against an opponent that stands a good chance of beating us, especially if breathy exclamations about "90% chance!" results in voter complacency on Election Day like it did four years ago.
 

Beebo Brink

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Actually the only thing grossly misleading is the notion that you have any insight that experts don’t.
Salome, you know as well as anyone that we're all suffering from 2016-inspired PTSD. No amount of logic can quell the intense anxiety that I'm feeling right now, and I can't bring myself to berate anyone who is steeped in fearful pessimism. Yes, those fears may well be unfounded, but that doesn't make them feel any less awful right now while we wait.

Four years ago I listened when various posters on this forum, people of unquestioned knowledge and political insight, assured us that Clinton would win. I know why things went awry and they ended up proven wrong, so I don't blame anyone for a missed prediction, but the shock waves are still reverberating. I can't think my way out of it. I'm just going to white-knuckle it through Tuesday (and probably a few more days beyond that).
 
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detrius

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I don't think you understand. In their minds, it is unfortunate that those folks are being driven off their land, but, by golly, at least it is for a racist cause.
Oh, I understand.

What I'm getting at is that you need to nail the Republicans' corrupt asses to their "big government iz gud" talk now or that's what they'll fall back to if Biden wins.

It's also an attack angle they're not accustomed to, so it'll confuse them.
 
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Sovereignty

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Banana republic.
Can put men on the moon.
Can't count votes efficiently, yeah right.
Say what you will about them, at least the Soviets counted votes efficiently.

ETA: maybe a sarcasm flag is needed
 
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detrius

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Salome, you know as well as anyone that we're all suffering from 2016-inspired PTSD. No amount of logic can quell the intense anxiety that I'm feeling right now, and I can't bring myself to berate anyone who is steeped in fearful pessimism. Yes, those fears may well be ungrounded, but that doesn't make them feel any less awful right now while we wait.

Four years ago I listened when various posters on this forum, people of unquestioned knowledge and political insight, assured us that Clinton would win. I know why things went awry and they ended up proven wrong, so I don't blame anyone for a missed prediction, but the shock waves are still reverberating. I can't think my way out of it, and I'm just going to white-knuckle it through Tuesday (and probably a few more days beyond that).
I'm probably going to call in sick on Wednesday, and I'm not even American.
 

Beebo Brink

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I'm probably going to call in sick on Wednesday, and I'm not even American.
I requested CTO (vacation hours) for Wednesday weeks ago. I know that I'm going to be absolutely wasted because I'll be following election results all night long. We've laid in a stock of popcorn and dip, essential comfort foods, and if I could drink, I'd have laid in substantial quantities of alcohol, too. Unfortunately, I'm going to have to get through this stone-cold sober.
 

Sovereignty

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Salome, you know as well as anyone that we're all suffering from 2016-inspired PTSD. No amount of logic can quell the intense anxiety that I'm feeling right now, and I can't bring myself to berate anyone who is steeped in fearful pessimism. Yes, those fears may well be unfounded, but that doesn't make them feel any less awful right now while we wait.

Four years ago I listened when various posters on this forum, people of unquestioned knowledge and political insight, assured us that Clinton would win. I know why things went awry and they ended up proven wrong, so I don't blame anyone for a missed prediction, but the shock waves are still reverberating. I can't think my way out of it. I'm just going to white-knuckle it through Tuesday (and probably a few more days beyond that).
Even if the voting yields a Biden win, there still is anxiety about the horseshit that follows.