2020 Democratic Primary

[Eunoli]

I don't know if you saw this, which I think I posted above:

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

According to fivethirtyeight, Bernie Sanders' chances of winning the Democratic nomination are now about half what they are of your picking a named card at random from a shuffled pack.

While I pretty much agree with those odds and think his odds of winning in the general would be not great either - I feel a little obligated to remind everyone that fivethirtyeight thought Hilary would win.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

While I pretty much agree with those odds and think his odds of winning in the general would be not great either - I feel a little obligated to remind everyone that fivethirtyeight thought Hilary would win.

And she did win the popular vote by about the margin he said she probably (but by no means certainly) would.

FiveThirtyEight give the odds they've calculated of particular events occurring, based on the data to hand.

As I recall, a few weeks before the election, some sports team had, very unexpectedly, won a particular grudge match against a side that were expected to beat them.

I forget what the sport was or what the odds were, but I do recall Nate Silver warning at the time that that the odds he'd given on the underdogs in that contest winning against their traditional nemesis (for the first time in ten years or so) were worse than the ones they were giving Trump at the time (something like a 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 chance, IIRC).

There's a huge difference between those odds and 1 in 100, and FiveThirtyEight don't normally get things that spectacularly wrong.

 

[Salome]

While I pretty much agree with those odds and think his odds of winning in the general would be not great either - I feel a little obligated to remind everyone that fivethirtyeight thought Hilary would win.

Actually, while I take issue with a lot of Nate’s stuff from time to time, 538 was pretty much the only outlet insisting that while Hillary was likely to win, there was still some noise in the data to indicate there was a not insignificant chance of Trump winning.

That said, it doesn’t really apply here. Unlike the general because of staggered primaries, we know that the actual votes are matching the polling fairly closely.

Personally, I’m fine with the primary going on. It’s only gong to get worse for Bernie from here. But I suspect he may just want to be able to wag his finger and masturbate his ire for another debate to protect his brand and then he’ll bow out before getting completely humiliated by the rejection of voters. After that he’ll cry about the establishment being against him and play martyr. Again.

 

[Brenda Archer]

Bernie's been the most energetic candidate out of the entire field, and look at how he performed BEFORE he had a heart attack.

And “heart attack” covers a range of issues. My cardiologist thinks I may have had a heart attack and neither I nor my doctors knew that’s what it was, which is not actually all that unusual, especially for women.

Sanders had stents. It’s done with a heart catheter, which I have had (for a heart ablation) and I was driving as soon as the meds wore off. He’s not on death’s door, and if he’s able to keep up with campaigning he’s not doing all that bad.

Same for Biden. Campaigning is physical.

I wouldn’t place any bets on anybody for a few weeks. I especially wonder what would happen if Trump or Pence get the “flu.”

Bernie Sanders Had Two Stents Put In. Is It Serious? | Live Science

 

[Cristalle]

I don't know if you saw this, which I think I posted above:

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

According to fivethirtyeight, Bernie Sanders' chances of winning the Democratic nomination are now about half what they are of your picking a named card at random from a shuffled pack.

Given the gravity of the impending public health crisis the US is facing in a matter of four or five weeks' time, do contesting the remaining primaries really matter so much?

Nobody was saying to shut things down when the polls favored Bernie and it looked like he might sweep California and Texas. The race is still very volatile.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Nobody was saying to shut things down when the polls favored Bernie and it looked like he might sweep California and Texas. The race is still very volatile.

FiveThirtyEight now give him a less than 1% chance of winning a majority of delegates -- his chances, it seems, are now no more realistic than those of Tulsi Gabbard.

What makes you think their assessment is so wildly out that he is, in fact, still in the race with a decent chance of winning?

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

As for Biden and what's happening to him: he's a shadow of the man he was. There is no way he'd put together the kind of performance against Trump that he did as VP against Paul Ryan. He has lost his polish.

In my opinion Biden has not entered the race to replace Trump, but only to prevent Sanders. A competitive democratic candidate needs the charisma of Clinton and Obama in order to win, which Biden clearly has not. Your mileage may vary.

 

[Eunoli]

In my opinion Biden has not entered the race to replace Trump, but only to prevent Sanders. A competitive democratic candidate needs the charisma of Clinton and Obama in order to win, which Biden clearly has not. Your mileage may vary.

I think this is a pretty unreasonable argument. Biden entered the race when Sanders wasn't the frontrunner or even seriously being considered as the eventual nominee by most pollsters. He's been virulently anti-Trump from day one. Trump has attacked him and his family constantly to the point he got impeached over it. Biden is pretty clearly in this to beat Trump in my opinion.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

While I pretty much agree with those odds and think his odds of winning in the general would be not great either - I feel a little obligated to remind everyone that fivethirtyeight thought Hilary would win.

In the days leading up to the election, they gave her a 60% chance of wining, and put her up by 2% of the popular vote. People suck at reading statistics.

 

[Cristalle]

FiveThirtyEight now give him a less than 1% chance of winning a majority of delegates -- his chances, it seems, are now no more realistic than those of Tulsi Gabbard.

What makes you think their assessment is so wildly out that he is, in fact, still in the race with a decent chance of winning?

It’s not necessarily wrong under today's conditions. But conditions could change. The numbers didn't flip for no reason.

 

[Aeon Jiminy]

Besides speaking, I'm breaking so many rules right now. I'm linking to the wrong place and talking about the wrong person who everyone wants to squash and throw out with the garbage.

This is absolutely necessary for our countries health and well-being right now. We don't have time to initiate some social plan beyond giving people the resources to take care of themselves. If this is coming from Putin, thank you Mr. Putin.:
To combat coronavirus, Tulsi Gabbard calls for universal basic income

 

[Cristalle]

 

[Cristiano]

Rep. Karen Bass, Chairwoman Of Congressional Black Caucus, Endorses Joe Biden

The endorsement by Democratic Rep. Karen Bass of California is the latest testament of a growing coalescence of support for Biden’s White House bid.

www.huffpost.com

 

[Jolene Benoir]

Besides speaking, I'm breaking so many rules right now. I'm linking to the wrong place and talking about the wrong person who everyone wants to squash and throw out with the garbage.

This is absolutely necessary for our countries health and well-being right now. We don't have time to initiate some social plan beyond giving people the resources to take care of themselves. If this is coming from Putin, thank you Mr. Putin.:
To combat coronavirus, Tulsi Gabbard calls for universal basic income

That's nice. You, other 3rd party voters, Trump voters, and abstainers gave us this man. We have what we have and what she says means fuck all in a scenario where you have given the power to such a man. I'm sure he will get right on that. We will be lucky if such a man doesn't use the pandemic as an excuse to remain in power.

Trump reportedly rejected aggressive coronavirus testing in hopes it would help his re-election

My understanding is [Trump] did not push to do aggressive additional testing in recent weeks, and that's partly because more testing might have led to more cases being discovered of coronavirus outbreak, and the president had made clear — the lower the numbers on coronavirus, the better for the president, the better for his potential re-election this fall."

 

[Cristalle]

Democratic primaries in flux over coronavirus concerns

Georgia election officials announced on Saturday plans to postpone the state's presidential primary.

www.axios.com

 

[Cristiano]

 

[Brenda Archer]

This article starts out with too much both-sides-ism (which gets called out in the comments), but its basic premise is solid.

We are not dealing with yesterday’s conservative Republicans and no Dem candidate could possibly fix it. We need massive turnout, and hope it’s enough to fix voting machine and coronavirus problems. One of the comments also correctly points out that the current center-right party is the Democrats.

Evernote link:
Moderate Republicans Can Save America - The Atlantic

But the president’s defeat would likely only deepen the despair that fueled his rise, confirming his supporters’ fear that the demographic tide has turned against them. That fear is the single greatest threat facing American democracy, the force that is already battering down precedents, leveling norms, and demolishing guardrails. When a group that has traditionally exercised power comes to believe that its eclipse is inevitable, and that the destruction of all it holds dear will follow, it will fight to preserve what it has—whatever the cost.

...

Where the center-right flourishes, it can defend the interests of its adherents, starving more radical movements of support. In Germany, where center-right parties faltered, “not their strength, but rather their weakness” became the driving force behind democracy’s collapse.

 

[Katheryne Helendale]

This is absolutely necessary for our countries health and well-being right now. We don't have time to initiate some social plan beyond giving people the resources to take care of themselves. If this is coming from Putin, thank you Mr. Putin.:
To combat coronavirus, Tulsi Gabbard calls for universal basic income

Here's my biggest concern about UBI: How do you find it? Especially with Trump talking about more tax cuts and the stock markets and their nauseating rollercoaster ride?

 

[Aeon Jiminy]

That's nice. You, other 3rd party voters, Trump voters, and abstainers gave us this man. We have what we have and what she says means fuck all in a scenario where you have given the power to such a man. We will be lucky if such a man doesn't use the pandemic as an excuse to remain in power.

Trump reportedly rejected aggressive coronavirus testing in hopes it would help his re-election

I was just advocating for a solution. Sue me. Only fighting Trump right now is as productive as shooting yourself in the foot and then gunning down everyone around you. We have to appeal to Local, State, and Federal systems for today. Right now. Solutions. I'll take it from any leadership and any voice.

Did you ever stop to think what could be accomplished, right now, by funneling resources down to the individual and putting it into the communities?
It beats filling up a enema bag with blame and flinging it all over the place. It beats blowing up the Middle East.

I don't have guaranteed income coming every month, neither do many of my neighbors.

 

[Aeon Jiminy]

Here's my biggest concern about UBI: How do you find it? Especially with Trump talking about more tax cuts and the stock markets and their nauseating rollercoaster ride?

This is really a good question. I'm not an economist. I would suggest going to the money tree that we get our unlimited military spending from and start harvesting. I would put it on the same credit card we put the trillions of unaccounted Pentagon spending on or the same place we found the money to bail out Wall Street.

About every dime of Emergency UBI would go back into the economy and the rest, that wasn't donated, could be taxed back.