2020 Democratic Primary

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Jolene getting comically underestimated. Again.

 

[Salome]

I think this is a pretty unreasonable argument. Biden entered the race when Sanders wasn't the frontrunner or even seriously being considered as the eventual nominee by most pollsters. He's been virulently anti-Trump from day one. Trump has attacked him and his family constantly to the point he got impeached over it. Biden is pretty clearly in this to beat Trump in my opinion.

Biden has been attacking Trump and running like an actual presidential candidate while Bernie has been attacking Democrats and acting like a chaos agent. Voters notice these things. That’s why Biden’s numbers are up across the board with pretty much every demographic except the most inexperienced voters.

That’s why the other chaos agents are now grasping at straws like pretending he’d cut social security and crying dementia and “cognitive declice” while propping up an old man that just had a heart attack. That’s why they think things could flip while they cook up conspiracy nonsense and miracle scenarios. They don’t understand this is a rejection of the attack on the only party trying to preserve our Republic while the orange tyrant gets away with more and more.

 

[Salome]

Here's my biggest concern about UBI: How do you find it? Especially with Trump talking about more tax cuts and the stock markets and their nauseating rollercoaster ride?

UBI is a good, solid idea when it’s well thought out, and gets a bad rap because idiots like Yang act like it’s cut and dry while ignoring all the nuanced ways it would have to be rolled out. I’d like to see us roll out a version of tiered UBI weighted to income that doesn’t undermine disability. Tax-wise UBI systems are much more stabilizing to the economy (the money actually goes to people and local businesses instead of CEO’s and stock buy-backs). But we’re never going to pass a flat UBI in this country. A tiered roll out would give us time to change the public perception, as happened with healthcare.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

From an article on fivethityeight, they looked at what it would take for Sanders to get a majority of delegates. He would need to win every remaining primary with an average of 12%. Biden leads national polls by about 20%. So he needs to flip about a third of primary votes (over half of Biden's share of supporters) in order to win without losing any of his supporters.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

UBI is a good, solid idea when it’s well thought out, and gets a bad rap because idiots like Yang act like it’s cut and dry while ignoring all the nuanced ways it would have to be rolled out. I’d like to see us roll out a version of tiered UBI weighted to income that doesn’t undermine disability. Tax-wise UBI systems are much more stabilizing to the economy (the money actually goes to people and local businesses instead of CEO’s and stock buy-backs). But we’re never going to pass a flat UBI in this country. A tiered roll out would give us time to change the public perception, as happened with healthcare.

A temporary UBI during the outbreak would be better than a payroll tax cut (only helps people currently working in the private sector) or unemployment extensions (only helps people who lose their jobs over the next few months). But Republicans are blocking even those more timid measures.

 

[Salome]

lulz

 

[Innula Zenovka]

It’s not necessarily wrong under today's conditions. But conditions could change. The numbers didn't flip for no reason.

Which particular conditions do you think may probably change in a way that could now flip the numbers sufficiently dramatically to give Sanders a realistic chance of the nomination, short of Biden being incapacitated in some way?

 

[Salome]

When you‘ve got to keep your grift going, even even in the midst of a pandemic.

 

[Salome]

...short of Biden being incapacitated in some way?

Welcome to why ”progressive” Bernie people have embraced the Russia-fed dementia propaganda.

 

[Cristalle]

Which particular conditions do you think may probably change in a way that could now flip the numbers sufficiently dramatically to give Sanders a realistic chance of the nomination, short of Biden being incapacitated in some way?

If Biden craters during the debate, or people start to heed the implications of the growing #NeverBiden push. Biden is a weak candidate. There is a reason why 20+ people didn't step out of the way and ran to begin with.

 

[Eunoli]

If Biden craters during the debate, or people start to heed the implications of the growing #NeverBiden push. Biden is a weak candidate. There is a reason why 20+ people didn't step out of the way and ran to begin with.

There is a reason why so many of them are endorsing Biden now.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

If Biden craters during the debate, or people start to heed the implications of the growing #NeverBiden push. Biden is a weak candidate. There is a reason why 20+ people didn't step out of the way and ran to begin with.

Writing on March 11, Nate Silver concluded his analysis with the observation that,

Sanders needs something like a 20-point surge within the next week just to remain competitive for the nomination, and even then it would still be an uphill battle for him. And he needs it at a time when Biden potentially stands to gain more ground because of his strong results last night; states such as Michigan could potentially give Biden a further bounce in the polls. Thus, even a strong debate on Sunday for Sanders might not be enough and just merely offset further momentum Biden gained from Tuesday.

The model does not account for any possibility that Biden drops out. (It assumes that candidates will not drop out so long as they remain either the delegate leader or the leader in national polls.) Actuarially speaking, there is some small chance that Biden could have to leave the race because of a scandal, a health problem, and so on; we don’t try to estimate this possibility. And I don’t mean to keep dwelling on these possibilities. But we’re at the point now where if Biden were to lose the nomination, it would likely require something highly out of the ordinary to happen.

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Salome]

There is a reason why so many of them are endorsing Biden now.

Our responsible leaders recognize that winning the presidency is only one goal. We have to put as much time and effort as possible into down ballot efforts to win local and state battles and make advances in Congress. Something Bernie didn’t give a shit about last time and doesn’t give a shit about now because he manipulates the system to keep his own seat safe, so he has no problem sucking away time and resources that could be actually helping defeat Trump.

 

[Cristalle]

There is a reason why so many of them are endorsing Biden now.

Yeah, they'll be fine if Trump wins again. The party insiders and their allies in the pundit class makes bank off of Trump, leading the Resistance Theatre. They don't need Medicare for All, don't see advocacy for the Green New Deal as being important. They'll be dead soon after the planet passes its tipping point. California will start looking like Australia every year, but not my state, so what? Biden makes them comfortable.

MLK was wrong, it wasn't just the white moderates.

 

[Salome]

Writing on March 11, Nate Silver concluded his analysis with the observation that,

I love how you patiently try and pretend like you’re engaging with people who acknowledge reality.

 

[Eunoli]

Yeah, they'll be fine if Trump wins again. The party insiders and their allies in the pundit class makes bank off of Trump, leading the Resistance Theatre. They don't need Medicare for All, don't see advocacy for the Green New Deal as being important. They'll be dead soon after the planet passes its tipping point. California will start looking like Australia every year, but not my state, so what? Biden makes them comfortable.

MLK was wrong, it wasn't just the white moderates.

It does no one any good for /either/ side to be declaring that the other side thinks that Trump winning is ok. Neither side does. The majority of people voting for Biden specifically state that their reason for supporting him is because above all else they want Trump out.

It would be a lot more constructive if instead of demonizing each other, we looked at what the voters are saying and why they are saying it without the insults.

 

[Cristalle]

It does no one any good for /either/ side to be declaring that the other side thinks that Trump winning is ok. Neither side does. The majority of people voting for Biden specifically state that their reason for supporting him is because above all else they want Trump out.

It would be a lot more constructive if instead of demonizing each other, we looked at what the voters are saying and why they are saying it without the insults.

That seems to go only one way.

 

[Cristalle]

Writing on March 11, Nate Silver concluded his analysis with the observation that,

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

fivethirtyeight.com

Yes, he is not necessarily wrong. The same thing could have been written about Biden and it happened.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Yes, he is not necessarily wrong. The same thing could have been written about Biden and it happened.

Yes, something like that happened after all the other candidates started withdrawing and their supporters switched to Biden.

That can't happen again -- there's only Tulsi Gabbard left to pull out, and her supporters are insufficient to give Sanders any sort of significant boost.

 

[Cristalle]

That's not the only thing that can happen. Either way, we just have to let the results play out.