Kamilah Hauptmann
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You left your teeth in the cup.
The US-Iran War Has Begun
- Thread starter Katheryne Helendale
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Bartholomew Gallacher
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President Trump could lose a pivotal “race against time” with Iran over who runs out of key missile stocks first, a former deputy head of the US military has warned.
Admiral Sandy Winnefeld told The Times that victory in the war would come down to whether the regime could keep up its barrage on American bases and its allies in the region longer than the US’s missile defence batteries could shoot them down.
The US could run out of interceptor stocks in “a matter of days”, according to Winnefeld, a former vice-chairman of the joint chiefs of staff.
The highly decorated officer and former naval aviator, who helped on the film Top Gun, aired specific criticisms of the campaign while saying he did not oppose the mission overall.
Winnefeld told The Times’s The General & The Journalist podcast: “It’s the sophisticated air defence munitions that I would be worrying about right now — the Patriots, the AMRAAM missiles that are out there.
“Do we have enough of those in a race against Iran’s inventory of Shahed drones and ballistic missiles? Who runs out first? It’s a race against time.
“There is also an economic disparity between shooting down a $20,000 Shahed drone with a $4 million missile. You start to run out very quickly and you’ll run out of those Patriots probably before Iran runs out of Shaheds.”
It has emerged that General Dan Caine, the head of the US military and chairman of the joint chiefs, privately warned Trump about serious shortages in interceptor stocks just before the strikes started, which significantly increased the risk to American personnel.
America’s stockpiles have already been greatly depleted by protecting Israel during last year’s 12-day war with Iran and in sales to Ukraine.
In response to an American media report about dwindling stocks, Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday night to insist the US had “unlimited mid to upper tier weaponry” and that a “Wall Street Journal story was wrong, and a disgrace”.
He added: “The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better.”
www.thetimes.com
Admiral Sandy Winnefeld told The Times that victory in the war would come down to whether the regime could keep up its barrage on American bases and its allies in the region longer than the US’s missile defence batteries could shoot them down.
The US could run out of interceptor stocks in “a matter of days”, according to Winnefeld, a former vice-chairman of the joint chiefs of staff.
The highly decorated officer and former naval aviator, who helped on the film Top Gun, aired specific criticisms of the campaign while saying he did not oppose the mission overall.
Winnefeld told The Times’s The General & The Journalist podcast: “It’s the sophisticated air defence munitions that I would be worrying about right now — the Patriots, the AMRAAM missiles that are out there.
“Do we have enough of those in a race against Iran’s inventory of Shahed drones and ballistic missiles? Who runs out first? It’s a race against time.
“There is also an economic disparity between shooting down a $20,000 Shahed drone with a $4 million missile. You start to run out very quickly and you’ll run out of those Patriots probably before Iran runs out of Shaheds.”
It has emerged that General Dan Caine, the head of the US military and chairman of the joint chiefs, privately warned Trump about serious shortages in interceptor stocks just before the strikes started, which significantly increased the risk to American personnel.
America’s stockpiles have already been greatly depleted by protecting Israel during last year’s 12-day war with Iran and in sales to Ukraine.
In response to an American media report about dwindling stocks, Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday night to insist the US had “unlimited mid to upper tier weaponry” and that a “Wall Street Journal story was wrong, and a disgrace”.
He added: “The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better.”
US could run out of key missiles within days, warns ex-adviser
Admiral Sandy Winnefeld, who was vice-chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, is the most senior figure yet to speak out critically about the war with Iran
www.thetimes.com
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Anyone who wants Britain to join the war in Iran needs their head examined
They don't know what they want to achieve, why they're doing it or what the consequences might be. They are lost in the void.
iandunt.substack.com
Bartholomew Gallacher
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Even a large-scale military assault against the Islamic Republic of Iran would be unlikely to oust the regime and its armed forces, The Washington Post reported on Saturday, citing a classified National Intelligence Council report.
The Post noted, however, that the National Intelligence Council report was completed a week before the war broke out last Saturday.
The publication of the report comes days after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that the US had “only just begun” to dismantle the Iranian regime’s capabilities.
US President Donald Trump told NBC News the following day that the US wanted to ensure a new future of governance for Iran by going in to “clean out everything.”
According to The Post, the report outlined succession scenarios for Iran’s leadership, either amid limited strikes on senior officials or as part of a larger campaign. People familiar with the report told The Washington Post that, in either case, Iran’s military and political echelon would respond to the killing of now former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by enacting pre-arranged protocols in order to retain power, and that the odds that Iranian opposition could seize control of the country were “unlikely.”
The National Intelligence Council is comprised of senior analysts and national security policy experts who, according to the body, serve as a “bridge between the intelligence and policy communities.”
The Post, however, noted that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, under which the National Intelligence Council serves, declined to comment and that the council’s report did not seem to consider alternative scenarios, including the deployment of US troops into Iran or the launch of a rebellion within the country by the Kurds in Iran.
www.jpost.com
The Post noted, however, that the National Intelligence Council report was completed a week before the war broke out last Saturday.
The publication of the report comes days after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that the US had “only just begun” to dismantle the Iranian regime’s capabilities.
US President Donald Trump told NBC News the following day that the US wanted to ensure a new future of governance for Iran by going in to “clean out everything.”
According to The Post, the report outlined succession scenarios for Iran’s leadership, either amid limited strikes on senior officials or as part of a larger campaign. People familiar with the report told The Washington Post that, in either case, Iran’s military and political echelon would respond to the killing of now former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by enacting pre-arranged protocols in order to retain power, and that the odds that Iranian opposition could seize control of the country were “unlikely.”
The National Intelligence Council is comprised of senior analysts and national security policy experts who, according to the body, serve as a “bridge between the intelligence and policy communities.”
The Post, however, noted that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, under which the National Intelligence Council serves, declined to comment and that the council’s report did not seem to consider alternative scenarios, including the deployment of US troops into Iran or the launch of a rebellion within the country by the Kurds in Iran.
US intelligence doubts Iran regime will fall | The Jerusalem Post
The National Intelligence Council report was completed a week before the start of the war, which broke out last Saturday.
www.jpost.com
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Iran’s future will be determined by Iranians, not Trump, officials say
Ghalibaf says Iran's fate will not be decided by 'Epstein's gang' as Trump pushes for role in choosing supreme leader.
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Kevin M. Kruse (@kevinmkruse.bsky.social)
I think it's great that the president put on his most solemnly branded baseball cap to receive the returning coffins of soldiers killed in the unnecessary war he launched to distract from his failing presidency and pedophilia scandal. Look at that gold-like letting. Classy as shit.
bsky.app
I'm sure some are tired of hearing this refrain, but imagine if Obama had worn a baseball cap to a reception of fallen soldiers.
Bartholomew Gallacher
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Israel is again shitting on IPL:
“Iran’s Assembly of Experts, which has not convened for decades, will soon gather in the city of Qom. We want to tell you that the hand of the State of Israel will continue to pursue every successor and every person who seeks to appoint a successor,” warns the military. “We warn all those who intend to participate in the successor selection meeting that we will not hesitate to target you either.”
“Iran’s Assembly of Experts, which has not convened for decades, will soon gather in the city of Qom. We want to tell you that the hand of the State of Israel will continue to pursue every successor and every person who seeks to appoint a successor,” warns the military. “We warn all those who intend to participate in the successor selection meeting that we will not hesitate to target you either.”
Bartholomew Gallacher
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Iran knows what Americans do hate, and is just threatening to do that:
Iran has threatened to attack oil facilities in neighbouring countries after Israel struck at least five energy sites in and around Tehran, smothering the city in black smoke and escalating fears that the conflict will result in significant disruption to the world economy.
“If you can tolerate oil at more than $200 per barrel, continue this game,” said a spokesperson for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) on Sunday.
The US sought to calm markets as oil prices surge by pledging not to target Iran’s energy infrastructure.
The attacks on oil sites in Iran have been done by the IDF. So we got most likely the first real tensions between America and Israel here.
Iran has threatened to attack oil facilities in neighbouring countries after Israel struck at least five energy sites in and around Tehran, smothering the city in black smoke and escalating fears that the conflict will result in significant disruption to the world economy.
“If you can tolerate oil at more than $200 per barrel, continue this game,” said a spokesperson for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) on Sunday.
The US sought to calm markets as oil prices surge by pledging not to target Iran’s energy infrastructure.
The attacks on oil sites in Iran have been done by the IDF. So we got most likely the first real tensions between America and Israel here.
Bartholomew Gallacher
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Planet Labs, a private company offering commercial imaging to anybody willing to pay, is placing a hold on releasing imagery of some parts of the Middle East.
“In response to the conflict in the Middle East, Planet is implementing temporary restrictions on data access within specific areas of the affected region,” Planet said in a statement emailed to Ars. “Effective immediately, all new imagery collected over the Gulf States, Iraq, Kuwait, and adjacent conflict zones will be subject to a mandatory 96-hour delay before it is made available in our archive.”
Imagery over Iran will remain available as soon as it is acquired, the company said. “This change applies to all users except authorized government users who maintain immediate access for mission-critical operations.”
In the last few days, Planet’s satellite imagery showed the aftermath of Iranian missile and drone strikes on US and allied bases in the region, including damage to the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and to a $1 billion US-built early warning radar in Qatar used for tracking incoming projectiles. Planet said it wants to prevent “adversarial actors” from using its data for “Battle Damage Assessment (BDA)” purposes. In other words, the company doesn’t want to help Iran’s military know where it succeeded and where it failed.
The decision is “rooted in our commitment to ensuring the safety of US, allied, and NATO-partner personnel and civilians on the ground,” Planet said. “As the conflict evolves, the area impacted may change.”
Planet did not say whether the US government requested it pause the release of Middle East imagery. In any event, there are other sources of commercial overhead satellite imagery that do not share the same ties with the Pentagon.
Since Iran is getting his satellite imagery and remote sensing now by Russia this is mainly a stunt to keep the public in the dark for a certain time period.
arstechnica.com
“In response to the conflict in the Middle East, Planet is implementing temporary restrictions on data access within specific areas of the affected region,” Planet said in a statement emailed to Ars. “Effective immediately, all new imagery collected over the Gulf States, Iraq, Kuwait, and adjacent conflict zones will be subject to a mandatory 96-hour delay before it is made available in our archive.”
Imagery over Iran will remain available as soon as it is acquired, the company said. “This change applies to all users except authorized government users who maintain immediate access for mission-critical operations.”
In the last few days, Planet’s satellite imagery showed the aftermath of Iranian missile and drone strikes on US and allied bases in the region, including damage to the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and to a $1 billion US-built early warning radar in Qatar used for tracking incoming projectiles. Planet said it wants to prevent “adversarial actors” from using its data for “Battle Damage Assessment (BDA)” purposes. In other words, the company doesn’t want to help Iran’s military know where it succeeded and where it failed.
The decision is “rooted in our commitment to ensuring the safety of US, allied, and NATO-partner personnel and civilians on the ground,” Planet said. “As the conflict evolves, the area impacted may change.”
Planet did not say whether the US government requested it pause the release of Middle East imagery. In any event, there are other sources of commercial overhead satellite imagery that do not share the same ties with the Pentagon.
Since Iran is getting his satellite imagery and remote sensing now by Russia this is mainly a stunt to keep the public in the dark for a certain time period.
Satellite firm pauses imagery after revealing Iran's attacks on US bases
Planet wants to prevent "adversarial actors" from using images for "Battle Damage Assessment" purposes.
arstechnica.com
Bartholomew Gallacher
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The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) will host a free webinar via Zoom on Monday, 9th of March, about what's going on in Iran and the region.
A record will be published within 48 hours after the webinar ended.
Chairman is going to be Sir John Chipman with Dr. Hasan Alhasan, Emile Hokayem and Retired Air Marshal Martin 'Sammy' Sampson as speakers.
This webinar will examine the military dimensions of the war and how to think about the respective strategies of the warring sides; the political effects of the war; the regional fallout both in the Gulf region and in the Levant; and the prospects for further escalation or a diplomatic off-ramp.
So if interested this might be a good source of information not so much biased by the usual slop in journalism.
A record will be published within 48 hours after the webinar ended.
Chairman is going to be Sir John Chipman with Dr. Hasan Alhasan, Emile Hokayem and Retired Air Marshal Martin 'Sammy' Sampson as speakers.
This webinar will examine the military dimensions of the war and how to think about the respective strategies of the warring sides; the political effects of the war; the regional fallout both in the Gulf region and in the Levant; and the prospects for further escalation or a diplomatic off-ramp.
So if interested this might be a good source of information not so much biased by the usual slop in journalism.
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Bartholomew Gallacher
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Once the threat is gone enough people will come back.
I do agree that though that the government of Dubai fears about its image, because there's a very well orchestrated pro Dubai propaganda wave over all social media, Facebook, Tiktok, you name it. Often with the same soundtrack and footage, all telling the people that "Dubai is safe." When a government launches such a campaign you know there's something fishy.
This dude has a nice compilation of the propaganda stuff flooding the net right now.
I do agree that though that the government of Dubai fears about its image, because there's a very well orchestrated pro Dubai propaganda wave over all social media, Facebook, Tiktok, you name it. Often with the same soundtrack and footage, all telling the people that "Dubai is safe." When a government launches such a campaign you know there's something fishy.
This dude has a nice compilation of the propaganda stuff flooding the net right now.
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He is stating the obvious, isn't he. A person who wants to go to Dubai for work or vacation as long as the war is going on should see a doctor IMHO. Just like I will not visit the USA as long as...
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G7 to take 'necessary measures' to support energy supplies
Finance ministers and the IEA discussed options for stabilising oil prices which surpassed $100.
www.bbc.co.uk
Bartholomew Gallacher
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Syrian kurds are warning Iranian kurds from siding with the USA, stating the obvious: "The US will abandon you."
www.jpost.com
Syria’s Kurds warn Iran’s Kurds against invasion | The Jerusalem Post
Syrian Kurds caution Iranian counterparts against partnering with the US, citing past betrayals and fears of abandonment in the fight against Iran.
www.jpost.com
Bartholomew Gallacher
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Bernie stating the obvious...
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I'm sorry, but I have a real problem with this kind of populist approach. The problem isn't that the right-wing extremist Netanyahu government is determining US policy, and Donald Trump would, however he behaved in other contexts, if it wasn't for Netanyahu, behave perfectly reasonably and rationally in the Middle East.
It's that US policy, foreign, military and domestic, is being determined by the whims of a man who was elected by a narrow majority of the popular vote in 2024 by an electorate who were prepared to ignore his glaring character flaws, his multiple felony convictions and his previous attempt at insurrection, and that the US Congress and Senate are not currently prepared to use their constitutional powers to restrain him.
It's reasonable for a European parliamentarian to say, as they have been doing, that their country's foreign and military policy should be determined by their government's assessments of the national interest, not by instructions from the US, and to decline to support this illegal war, but I really don't think the US's relationship with Israel is in any way similar to NATO countries' relationship with the US.
If we in Europe can stand up to the US, then Donald Trump could not only stand up to, but also restrain, Benjamin Netanyahu, if he chose to (as, indeed, he did at various points while trying to impose a ceasefire in Gaza), and Congress, were they so minded, could restrain Trump.
We can't blame Israel for the bad choices of US voters and legislators.
As Shakespeare's Cassius tells his friend Brutus in Julius Caesar, "The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, / But in ourselves, that we are underlings"
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That isn't what he was saying, speaking of obvious. His point was that the illusion Dubai built as a safe, carefree tax haven for the rich and beautiful has been shattered permanently. It will have a difficult time coming back from that, especially now that it looks like the entire Middle East is being bombed. This will have long term geopolitical consequences.
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There is a lot of blame to go around, certainly. We are watching in horror in the US as our democratic institutions and guardrails have mostly fallen, and nothing is being done to rein Trump's worst impulses in. That said, Netanyahu has wanted to attack Iran for decades. He finally found a US administration dumb enough to do it with sheer flattery of our brain dead leader. Trump did not win the 2024 election, he was installed again with the help of Elon. Unfortunately for us all, we are being dragged along for the ride. We would, however, not be attacking Iran right now even with Trump had it not been for Netanyahu. It served zero interests for the US, but everything for Netantyahu and his corrupt government.
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People will come back after the war is over. No doubt about that.
It happened with other places after other wars too.
Egypt for instance had a huge dip in tourism when there were internal fights going on. Now tourism is booming there again. Although this war will certainly have impact there as well again too.
When the world starts to clash one is nowhere perfectly safe. Not even in the USA. Not even if you belong to the top 10 of the richest people in the world.