The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

Chin Rey

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I wasn't aware planes that look like fighter jets were used to transport passengers.

I'm 99.99% certain this is not footage of the crash that killed Prigozhin.
The pictures of the tailfin remains are definitely of an Embraer with the same color scheme as Prigozhin's and there is no report of any other plane fitting the description that has ever crashed.

As for the burning wreck footage, Denis Davydov, one of the most prolific YT vloggers on the Ukrainian conflict, worked as a pilot for Ukrainian Airlines International before the war so he should know what he's talking about here. He posted a fairly detailed analysis of the video and is satisfied that it is indeed an Embraer.

Analysis of the wreckage starts around 1:00

 

Sid

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Cindy Claveau

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But will there still be a Wagner Group in a few days?
The brains and the money behind the group are gone in one strike.
No they're not. They moved to Africa.
 

Chin Rey

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But will there still be a Wagner Group in a few days?
The brains and the money behind the group are gone in one strike.
In a few days? Yes, I think so. In a few weeks? Probably not. It depends on whether the surviving leaders can take control over the group's African revenue stream and find a safe haven away from both Russian and western/Ukrainian control.

My best guess is that they will try to make a final stand since they want revenge have nothing to loose anymore.
 
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Soen Eber

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Wait, their plane was leased from Brazil and the lease wasn't forcibly terminated by the Brazilian company after the coup attempt?
 

Dakota Tebaldi

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Wait, their plane was leased from Brazil and the lease wasn't forcibly terminated by the Brazilian company after the coup attempt?
I mean....are they going to send someone into Russia to repo the plane though?
 

WolfEyes

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There are passenger jets that look simliar to modern jet fighters. If I was flying over Russia right now, I would not want to ride in an old prop plane.

EDIT: I Googled the plane Prigozhin was in. An Embraer Praetor.

That's not even close to what I saw in that video. It's also not a very good quality video.

Looked a lot more like this to me:



 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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In a few days? Yes, I think so. In a few weeks? Probably not. It depends on whether the surviving leaders can take control over the group's African revenue stream and find a safe haven away from both Russian and western/Ukrainian control.

My best guess is that they will try to make a final stand since they want revenge have nothing to loose anymore.
Well after the putsch has ended through Putin and Prigoshin loving each other again, Putin held a speech in television adressed at Wagner soldiers: if you're going back to Russia and want to still work for that group, you have to apply for the Russian army. Otherwise its either you leaving Wagner, or you going to Belarus - if you don't do anything of that, it's gulag time for you.

So yeah, Wagner's demise began already there.
 
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WolfEyes

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We saw different things, then.
Doesn't surprise me. My distance vision is far better than close up but it doesn't really help with poor vid quality. Not that I would expect someone else to have done better on the "spur of the moment".

I'm just suspicious of when the vid was shot because so many have turned out to not be what it has been claimed to be and were filmed on a different day. Filming a fighter jet falling from the sky isn't an everyday event and someone just happened to catch it? Not impossible but it all seems like a setup to me. Not just the plane crashing but the vid as well. A little too convenient.
 

Cindy Claveau

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Doesn't surprise me. My distance vision is far better than close up but it doesn't really help with poor vid quality. Not that I would expect someone else to have done better on the "spur of the moment".

I'm just suspicious of when the vid was shot because so many have turned out to not be what it has been claimed to be and were filmed on a different day. Filming a fighter jet falling from the sky isn't an everyday event and someone just happened to catch it? Not impossible but it all seems like a setup to me. Not just the plane crashing but the vid as well. A little too convenient.
I don't care about the video quality so much. But logically, there's far more reason to think Putin ordered the wet work on Prigozhin (Past history). Several intel agencies (including US & British) are pointing the finger at Putie.

So, the make & model of the plane in the video is really irrelevant. They now claim to have identified Prigozhin's remains retrieved from the wreckage. Witnesses say they heard an explosion, looked up and saw it was falling with only one wing still attached.

Time will reveal the story more fully.
 

WolfEyes

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I don't care about the video quality so much. But logically, there's far more reason to think Putin ordered the wet work on Prigozhin (Past history). Several intel agencies (including US & British) are pointing the finger at Putie.

So, the make & model of the plane in the video is really irrelevant. They now claim to have identified Prigozhin's remains retrieved from the wreckage. Witnesses say they heard an explosion, looked up and saw it was falling with only one wing still attached.

Time will reveal the story more fully.
There was never any question in my mind that Putin ordered the hit. I knew that was coming the moment Prigozhin gave up and turned back.

According to the article I quoted to start with (forgot who posted said article), there were 2 explosions and 2 vapor trails. 🤷‍♀️

That's what I'm thinking. :giggle:
 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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The Kremlin has now a big problem, namely: how should Progishon be buried? Like a national hero, or like a traitor? And also: where should he be buried?
 

WolfEyes

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Bomb likely the cause of Wagner leader Prigozhin's plane explosion: US officials (msn.com)

The explosion that downed a plane carrying Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and nine others in Russia was likely caused by a bomb, two U.S. officials told ABC News on Friday.

A senior U.S. official said the preliminary belief is that the private jet was downed by an explosion on board, potentially caused by a well-placed bomb. Another U.S official said the United States believes that a bomb was very likely the cause of the explosion.

The Kremlin vehemently denied having any involvement in the mysterious plane crash on Wednesday that presumably killed Prigozhin as well as Wagner Group co-founder Dmitry Utkin.
[...]
There was no indication a surface-to-air missile was the cause of the crash, according to the U.S. Department of Defense.
ETA:
"If confirmed, no one should be surprised," Watson said. "The disastrous war in Ukraine led to a private army marching on Moscow, and now -- it would seem -- to this."
 

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A mid air collision with Santa's sledge on one of his test drives is maybe a possibility too.
We will get certainty to rule that option out upcoming Christmas.

🎅 Only 121 days left before we know if my theory holds.
Santa only flies on one night of the year. You know that!
 
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Chin Rey

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For those who don't follow the Ukrainian summer offensive too closely, it has now entered a new stage. The Ukrainian troops have finally made their way through the minefields and have entered those long Russian trenches east of Robotyne. Those trenches run more or less unbroken for almost 40 km east to west up to 10-15 km behind the most forward Russian positions and if The Ukrainians can capture those, they may well liberate more than 400 km2 og territory in one big swoop and if they're really, really lucky, they may also isolate and effectively surround several thousand Russian troops.
Some reports suggest that the Russian army has made the mistake of engaging far too many troops in the battle. That may sound a bit strange at first but a trench is rather narrow. When both sides are in the same tench, too many soldiers only get in the way of each other.

The offensive started with the western strategy of rapid maneuver warfare but as we know, that didn't work too well against defense lines as solid as the Russian ones, especially since they don't have air supremacy. They already knew of course that the eastern style brute force strategy wouldn't work so they came up with a brand new one, called "strecth, starve and strike" instead and it seems to be working very well. You start with the old Russian/Soviet style, attacking everywhere to force your enemy to spread out their troops. But then, rather than keep on pushing, you launch a massive attack against the supply lines to one sector of the front. FInally, when that sector is sufficiently starved of resources, you strike. It's actually a variant of the good old method of finding and exploiting the enemy's weak spot except rather than find the spot, you create it.