The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

[Arkady Arkright]

Erdogan always says no first because he wants to get bribed.

Isn't that the de-facto definition of 'Politician' ?

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Meanwhile Poland said it will help Finland and Sweden militarily, if they should be attacked during the NATO accession process.

Poland says it will help Sweden, Finland if they're attacked before NATO accession

Poland will assist Sweden and Finland, should they be attacked before obtaining NATO membership, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

 

[WolfEyes]

Just a Freudian slip, nothing to see here.

 

[Sid]

Meanwhile Poland said it will help Finland and Sweden militarily, if they should be attacked during the NATO accession process.

Poland says it will help Sweden, Finland if they're attacked before NATO accession

Poland will assist Sweden and Finland, should they be attacked before obtaining NATO membership, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

As I wrote before it is mostly theoretically.
If Finland, Sweden or another EU country that isn't a NATO member like Austria, would come under attack. the EU countries will not sit back and watch how things unfold with their arms crossed.
And the EU membering countries being a large chunck of the NATO... The US, Brittain and the others will have to follow soon then. Otherwise NATO makes no longer sense.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

As I wrote before it is mostly theoretically.
If Finland, Sweden or another EU country that isn't a NATO member like Austria, would come under attack. the EU countries will not sit back and watch how things unfold with their arms crossed.
And the EU membering countries being a large chunck of the NATO... The US, Brittain and the others will have to follow soon then. Otherwise NATO makes no longer sense.

This is why I said it seemed to me that all EU countries were in NATO, since there is a lot of overlap.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Well for Sweden/Finland the thing is they also want to be allied with the UK and USA. Both are not in the EU. By the way Austria already declared it will stay neutral.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Well for Sweden/Finland the thing is they also want to be allied with the UK and USA. Both are not in the EU. By the way Austria already declared it will stay neutral.

British foreign policy is far more positive towards Scandinavia and the Baltic Republics than it is towards the EU. We'll cooperate enthusiastically with anything that keeps the Russian northern fleet bottled up.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

Well for Sweden/Finland the thing is they also want to be allied with the UK and USA. Both are not in the EU. By the way Austria already declared it will stay neutral.

Yes, but.... Let's say Russia decided to attack Finland - then Poland gets involved because they gave their word to defend Finland if they are attacked during the process. What happens next? One, Poland is part of NATO, iirc - they are also part of the EU. In addition, do you think that [regardless of NATO] that Norway would stand by if Finland is attacked? Denmark? IIRC, they are both in NATO.

And even if Poland didn't help Finland or Sweden because they weren't trying to join NATO, I still think Norway and Denmark would still help, even if no other members of the EU helped.

I'm using logic here, not treaty terms and political terms like 'neutral' or 'treaty' I'm talking practical affects of attacking an EU country, even if said country is not a part of NATO.

 

[Sid]

The other EU countries simply can't lean back and watch what happens if another EU member is under attack.
EU countries are all sovereign states, sure, but they are so heavily connected with eachother that ignoring an attack is totally impossible.
And when the EU actively starts to mingle in the hostilities, it will slide into a full blown WW within days, most likely a nuclear one.
As I understand it, a lot of Russian military doctrines are based on nuclear warfare.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

The other EU countries simply can't lean back and watch what happens if another EU member is under attack.
EU countries are all sovereign states, sure, but they are so heavily connected with eachother that ignoring an attack is totally impossible.
And when the EU actively starts to mingle in the hostilities, it will slide into a full blown WW within days, most likely a nuclear one.
As I understand it, a lot of Russian military doctrines are based on nuclear warfare.

Yup, I still say we're in WWIII, most of us just don't see it yet, because it hasn't yet spread past Ukraine - but if they -had- fallen in a few days, I doubt Russia would have stopped - they would have gone for Moldova, or any other non-EU countries, before, eventually going after Poland.

I believe the translated quote is 'All countries were Russian is spoken are really Russia.'

Point being, they also have said 'Ukraine isn't a real country,' and now, 'Finland isn't a real country.' To me, that's a statement of intent. Let's just hope it doesn't get to that, I'd like to be wrong, you don't even know.

But I wasn't wrong about what's going on in the US either, even with defeating the former guy - but at least the US is still in NATO, so long as we can hold back the fascists here.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

We are by no means in WWIII yet. What are having is a regional conflict like in Korea back then, which has the potential to turn into WWIII, but this has not happened so far yet.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Thread: how many of Russia's stored tanks are actually usable?

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

So I have a question for all the europeans here.

You keep saying that Ukraine's values don't match the EU's, but...

Seems to me that the far-right party only getting 4% of the vote last election is a LOT better than France's most recent election, and Spain's far-right party is also far more involved with their government. And of course, there is also Hungary.

So, would France have been kicked from the EU if Le Pen had -won-, it was close.

What about if Germany had a far right government get into power?

Seems to me that 'Ukraine has a fascism/nazi problem is just some very good Russian propaganda, but then I don't like in Europe [instead I get to see fellow American progressives falling for it [had someone friend me on FB and it was [prog-prog-prog-pro-russian prop-prog-prog- R. prop] so I dropped them.]].

So what happens? IIRC, Poland started that slide, Hungary dove off the deep end, France, Spain, Greece.... so, what happens if Putin/Fascists succeed in the EU to take over government in an EU country.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

So I have a question for all the europeans here.

You keep saying that Ukraine's values don't match the EU's, but...

We're not saying thet Ukraine's values don't match the EU, what we're saying is that they still do lack many of the requirements of joining the EU, meaning e.g. democracy not being developed far enough, judiciary system lacks independence, corruption too high etc. The EU forms an economic block, where free travel, work and other stuff happens. Many countries also have the some currency.

So in order to join that block that country needs to reach certain standards. In terms of Hungary and Poland the EU has mechanisms in place to initiate trials and don't pay subsidies. In case of Hungary such are on the way right now.

Here's basically the laundry list given by the European Parliament back in 2021 about Ukraine joining EU, which gives you a pretty good idea where Ukraine lacks in that regard. Not much has changed since then.

What will happen when France or Germany, two of the main powers of the EU after the UK left, will go that way? That's the start of its end then.

Texts adopted - EU Association Agreement with Ukraine - Thursday, 11 February 2021

www.europarl.europa.eu

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

We're not saying thet Ukraine's values don't match the EU, what we're saying is that they still do lack many of the requirements of joining the EU, meaning e.g. democracy not being developed far enough, judiciary system lacks independence, corruption too high etc. The EU forms an economic block, where free travel, work and other stuff happens. Many countries also have the some currency.

So in order to join that block that country needs to reach certain standards. In terms of Hungary and Poland the EU has mechanisms in place to initiate trials and don't pay subsidies. In case of Hungary such are on the way right now.

Here's basically the laundry list given by the European Parliament back in 2021 about Ukraine joining EU, which gives you a pretty good idea where Ukraine lacks in that regard. Not much has changed since then.

What will happen when France or Germany, two of the main powers of the EU after the UK left, will go that way? That's the start of its end then.

Texts adopted - EU Association Agreement with Ukraine - Thursday, 11 February 2021

www.europarl.europa.eu

I know Sid, at least, has questioned whether they share the same values, a few times in this long thread. I get that they need to meet requirements, that's the same for any club, on any scale, really.

Also, its kinda hard to fix peacetime problems when there is an invasion going on.

And I'd be surprised if Poland didn't go 'Oh shit, we've been going down the same path that led to us being invaded in WWII, we better take a step or six back.' But then I'm only part ethnically Polish, and so maybe I'm just hoping that it turns that bus around.

Basically, half of my heritage is from Eastern Europe, so I've cousins over there - add in that I've also apparently have German and English cousins [latter was a surprise - much like the Polish was] and I'm really worried about the whole situation, in general.

 

[Soen Eber]

I think the Poles are more focused on gleefully rectifying their more recent history with the Russians than any possibility of going down the long path of reliving WW II history.

 

[Sid]

I know Sid, at least, has questioned whether they share the same values, a few times in this long thread. I get that they need to meet requirements, that's the same for any club, on any scale, really.

Also, its kinda hard to fix peacetime problems when there is an invasion going on.

The way a country looks at and thinks about democracy, economics, emancipation, education, human rights and justice has everything to do with values IMHO.
These views don't need to be exact copies from each other between all countries, but there has to be a more or less leveled playing field on the issues before it is possible to join an open community of sovereign countries. Remember that the EU has no central government with decisive power.
That is only workable if vast majorities can come relatively easily to agreements. A lot of things even need unanimous agreement to get passed.
So there has to be a good match between all countries before a new country can enter. Laws and fundamental viewpoints have to be synchronized first, just like the economic playing field. It is all very complicated and will take far more than a decade to achieve for Ukraine, if it ever will happen.
Being a fellow European country is simply not enough to become an EU member. One has to fit in, on various levels.

The fact that Ukraine is under siege at the moment is the worst thinkable argument to speed up the process.
A rushed EU membership will not end the hostilities from Russia, it will only escalate things into a WWIII.
Does that mean that the EU approves of what is happening in Ukraine? I don't think so.
But what is the gain, when the EU and Russia get involved in a full blown war, escalating into a (most likely nuclear) WWIII within days or weeks?

I think that if Russia only had conventional weapons, this invasion already would be history. Joined German and French armies alone could end that invasion swiftly IMHO. Certainly when assisted by some other EU countries.
But the man in Moscow has the special buttons and codes that can end the world as we know it within hours. That complicates things enormously.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

The way a country looks at and thinks about democracy, economics, emancipation, education, human rights and justice has everything to do with values IMHO.
These views don't need to be exact copies from each other between all countries, but there has to be a more or less leveled playing field on the issues before it is possible to join an open community of sovereign countries. Remember that the EU has no central government with decisive power.
That is only workable if vast majorities can come relatively easily to agreements. A lot of things even need unanimous agreement to get passed.
So there has to be a good match between all countries before a new country can enter. Laws and fundamental viewpoints have to be synchronized first, just like the economic playing field. It is all very complicated and will take far more than a decade to achieve for Ukraine, if it ever will happen.
Being a fellow European country is simply not enough to become an EU member. One has to fit in, on various levels.

The fact that Ukraine is under siege at the moment is the worst thinkable argument to speed up the process.
A rushed EU membership will not end the hostilities from Russia, it will only escalate things into a WWIII.
Does that mean that the EU approves of what is happening in Ukraine? I don't think so.
But what is the gain, when the EU and Russia get involved in a full blown war, escalating into a (most likely nuclear) WWIII within days or weeks?

I think that if Russia only had conventional weapons, this invasion already would be history. Joined German and French armies alone could end that invasion swiftly IMHO. Certainly when assisted by some other EU countries.
But the man in Moscow has the special buttons and codes that can end the world as we know it within hours. That complicates things enormously.

I wasn't asking about rushing it. I was saying that mentioning that nothing has changed in.... a year [assuming middle of '21], when there has been an invasion and lead ups to an invasion for more than that time. I also am skeptical that Russia's nukes are any more effective than their other military hardware - because I feel if they were, Putin would have already tried to launch them.

Its bullying and posturing, and I get no one wants to risk it, and I'm not advocating it, because I don't wanna risk it either - while I live in the US, and my parents were both citizens, I was born and spent half of my first 10 years on this planet in Europe - I'm still homesick 45 years later.

But I still think he's bluffing.

And also the original question is, when the far-right, the world wide organization of trying to overthrow democracies have more of a foothold in major players in the EU [like France, for example], and are 99.9% likely to be behind Brexit, have less of a foothold in Ukraine, where the people have been working hard to become a proper democracy and are in fact dying for that dream, aren't 'good' enough to be in the EU.

Also, you can learn a lot about cultures learning their language - the words they consider to be important to learn. One of the first words I learned was 'Демократія' [someone remind me to figure out how to install a Ukrainian keyboard setting on my computer].

Just food for thought - also, that has not been a word to show up in my Czech language lessons I did for a year before I realized I can read names and place names in roman characters, but I couldn't the ones in Cyrillic, nor in my Russian lessons that lasted a week before I realized I wasn't clicking with it [probably because of my rage at Putin, and besides more Ukrainian cousins than Russian ones]. That and the language nerd in me learned that its A: closer to Slovak and B: also an older language than Russian.

TL;DR I didn't say rush it, was just asking how little far right influence does a country need to be considered 'democratic enough' when its far lower than most actual EU countries, and also language shows a lot about what a culture values - and one of my first Ukrainian words learned [but not the other two slavic languages, including that of a EU member] was Демократія [Democratia].

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

And also the original question is, when the far-right, the world wide organization of trying to overthrow democracies have more of a foothold in major players in the EU [like France, for example], and are 99.9% likely to be behind Brexit, have less of a foothold in Ukraine, where the people have been working hard to become a proper democracy and are in fact dying for that dream, aren't 'good' enough to be in the EU.

These efforts doesn't matter if that people's government does the opposite. And Ukraine has two big problems here: the oligarchs, and their influence on the government. And the government doing things which are good for the oligarchs and decelerating the integration process.