The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

The UK's Ministry of Defence found out, that days in winter are colder and shorter. Wow!

 

[Chalice Yao]

The UK's Ministry of Defence found out, that days in winter are colder and shorter. Wow!

I fixed it for them.

Spoiler

 

[Chin Rey]

I don't know what to make of this, I really don't know what to make of this:

​

Apparently, and I do say apparently, Ukrainian troops have already crossed the Dnieper river meeting little or no resistance on its eastern bank. If that is true, it's pretty much game over for Russia.

 

[Caete]

Well I know SpinLaunch has a lot of U.S. military interest. I figure in a few years they'll be able to effectively swarm LOE satelites over hot spots in a matter of hours so it wouldn't surprise me if they're vested in StarLink as well. And that Musk pretty much shut up after making a huge fuss about losing money over the Ukraine war probably points to him not being able to "play" the military to cover his costs like he espected (and that he continues to be quiet) indicates to me that they've got leverage on him.

My guess is as he's a new comer and not (yet) an entrenched part of the military-industrial complex means he can't quietly profit in the way the big boys like McDonald Douglas, Lockheed and General Dynamics can through regulatory lock-in. He throws hissy fits at Twitter instead when he's out of "big boy" pants.

Spinlaunch has major issues. Currently they are only hitting 1000 mph or 450 meters per second. Impressive but to reach low earth orbit, they need to be hitting around 9500 meters per second. Then there's the question of not just the amount of power they would need to hit that speed, the stress on the equipment, but also the rotational forces on the payloads. Currently once tossed, their payload delivery vehicle just gets some massive rotational speeds, think how a bullet spins once fired from a gun. Problem is that unless each vehicle is perfectly balanced and nothing shifts during the whirling phase, once hurled it will spin out of balance and end up in someone's backyard. The recovery system is ride out to the crash site, drive the scoop digger to it, dig it out of the ground.

Watch some of their videos, the equipment is already rusting. They do a lot of editing to not directly show how bad it is inside the launcher but you can catch glimpses of it in the corners of the shots.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Thread

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

 

[Zaida Gearbox]

Welcome to World War III

 

[Veritable Quandry]

I can think of a lot of things NATO can do at this point short of a military response. An increase in sanctions, including sanctions on countries trading with Russia, can be effective. Increasing military aid to Ukraine including new classes of weapons can also work. Extending NATOS's missile interception over parts of Ukraine (say a 50-mile buffer on common borders) can be a proportionate response. There are options that can send a clear message without escalating the conflict, leaving the ball in Russia's court.

Right now, NATO is meeting to discuss Article 4 responses (mutual aid and cooperation) not Article 5 (mutual defense).

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Putin has issued a new ukas (Russian for decree) this Monday: Russian citizens who also have a foreign citizenship or a residence permit of another country can be drafted into the Russian army, as follows from President Vladimir Putin’s decree issued on Monday. The decree amends some provisions concerning military service regulations.

Russians with dual citizenship can be drafted into army — Putin’s decree

The decree states that conscription is applicable also to those Russian citizens "who have the citizenship of another country or a residence permit or other document confirming the right to permanent residence in the territory of a foreign state"

tass.com

This means that in theory now Steven Seagal, Gerard Depardieu and Edward Snowden could be drafted in the Russian Army.

 

[Cate Foulsbane]

I'm wondering if it was an accident. Maybe Ukraine firing at Russian missiles knocked some into Polish territory? Or that Russian missiles were off-course? Either way, it's possible truth will be hidden and event used as an excuse to go after Russia. I don't wish for war, but I do wish something or someone could stop Putin's war on Ukraine.

 

[Cate Foulsbane]

I can think of a lot of things NATO can do at this point short of a military response. An increase in sanctions, including sanctions on countries trading with Russia, can be effective. Increasing military aid to Ukraine including new classes of weapons can also work. Extending NATOS's missile interception over parts of Ukraine (say a 50-mile buffer on common borders) can be a proportionate response. There are options that can send a clear message without escalating the conflict, leaving the ball in Russia's court.

Right now, NATO is meeting to discuss Article 4 responses (mutual aid and cooperation) not Article 5 (mutual defense).

I thought Ukraine requested admittance to NATO and NATO was going to say yes. What happened with that or was I mistaken about all of it?

 

[Veritable Quandry]

It would be very difficult during the ongoing war. Because of the mutual defense clause it would amount to a declaration of war against Russia. And it would require a unanimous vote. Turkey is trying to to maintain some relationship with Russia and would not support it.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

I thought Ukraine requested admittance to NATO and NATO was going to say yes. What happened with that or was I mistaken about all of it?

As I understand it, Ukraine will be able to apply -once- Russia stops invading them, but yeah, in the middle of a war, the rest of Nato might as well attack.

I'm wondering if it was an accident. Maybe Ukraine firing at Russian missiles knocked some into Polish territory? Or that Russian missiles were off-course? Either way, it's possible truth will be hidden and event used as an excuse to go after Russia. I don't wish for war, but I do wish something or someone could stop Putin's war on Ukraine.

I'd be more inclined that it was an 'accident', because again, Putin has made it plain he wants to reclaim every part of Tsarist Russia, as a start, to reclaiming every other place that he feels is really Russia, like anywhere in the world that has people speaking Russian, and when i say this, they have made noises towards reclaiming Alaska.

And parts of Poland were part of Imperial Russia, I know, because my Polish great-grandfather came over on a German ship from Lodz - in Russland.

Not to mention Poland is one of the main places giving direct aid to Ukraine in terms of refugees and such - and when you are trying to kill off a people and culture..... yeah.

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But it could be an accident, I just wouldn't be suggesting that if anyone is hiding the truth its the west, to hide the truth to justify war. Its more likely, imo, that if the truth is hidden, it would be to continue to keep on as we are, without out and out war.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Free]

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

As I understand it, Ukraine will be able to apply -once- Russia stops invading them, but yeah, in the middle of a war, the rest of Nato might as well attack.

Yes, correct - due to NATO regulations no country which is at war at time of joining can join. This is an article which Putin exploited several times, to keep Georgia and other states which wanted to enter NATO out of it, by crippling their territory and keeping them in a constant conflict.

Having said that, once the war is over it is already clear that Ukraine wants to join. I mean, they've already finished all the required paperwork and sent it to Brussels. More importantly, the Ukraine already has clearly demonstrated that it is able to work with NATO standards, has a modern and capable army, and also clearly oriented towards the West.

So once the war is over, there will be much less excuses for not accepting Ukraine into the NATO. The biggest showstopper is and will be though the possible reaction of Russia, if that should ever happen. I mean even if the Russian army performs like a joke, one thing is also quite clear: all supporters of Ukraine are despite that still very observant and careful not to anger Russia too much right now on their own.

Anyway, the path of Ukraine is clear - the country has been pushed towards the west by Putin, it sees itself now clearly as part of it and there will be no turning back on that.

Coming back to the missiles, which impacted Poland:
* Poland's president Duda officially told, that there is no evidence that these missiles were an intentional attack, or launched by Russia.
* General NATO secretary Stoltenberg thinks that the incident was most likely caused by an Ukrainian air defence system to defend Ukraine's territory. He also stated that this incident is not the Ukraine's fault.
* Also US president Joe Biden is of the same opinion like Duda.
* Volodymyr Zelenskiy is convinced that the missile is not Ukrainian, and wants to take part in a joint study of the incident with Poland.
* Russias defence ministry stated that they have not targeted any locations near the Ukraine-Polish border that day.

So in short: Russia and the rest of the Western world do all agree that this was not a Russian attack/missile. What a strange case of all major war parties having the same opinion about an incident.

Russia-Ukraine war: Zelenskiy dismisses Nato’s suggestion missile that hit Poland was Ukrainian – as it happened

Poland’s president and Nato both say missile likely an accident by Ukrainian forces – but Kyiv says ‘it was not our rocket’

www.theguardian.com

 

[Sid]

So in short: Russia and the rest of the Western world do all agree that this was not a Russian attack/missile. What a strange case of all major war parties having the same opinion about an incident.

I think it is not that strange. Nobody wants to escalate the situation, if possible.
My guess, there is a lot of silent diplomacy going on, to get both sides in one room again to negotiate and no side wants to disturb that process.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

In my simple opinion there might be some behind the curtain communication now and then, but probably not much.

Negotiations are off the charts right now, because:

1. Ukraine has the rightful stance, that they want to get all of their conquered territory back including Crimea, plus that they will only enter negotiations with Putin's successor, while
2. Russia stated officially that they only will enter negotiations if Ukraine accepts that the conquered territories are now and forever Russian.

So there is no starting ground for serious negotiations right now. All involved sides are at the moment prisoners of the logic of war.

 

[Soen Eber]

If there are negotiations they're a) not directly between Russia and Ukraine, b) going through third & fourth party cutouts such as the Swiss or India, and c) secret & plausibly deniable. Who are the cutouts? look at who is still doing business with Russia whom no one in the west has a problem with, or perhaps the Vatican or retired politicians/civil servants who have a well known and agreeable personal reputation.