The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

[Innula Zenovka]

Thread -- Russian conscripts and their families complaining how they have been tricked/pressured into signing contracts allowing them to be deployed in Ukraine, and the conditions in which they have to fight when they get there.

 

[Tirellia]

It's puking time: Steven Seagal is right now in Donbass filming a documentary about the war. And the TASS has a hardon for him:

That fat head is a sniper's dream.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Andriy Yermak, head of the office of Ukraine's president, said in an interview with Interfax Ukraine that Ukraine wants to make every effort to end the activer phase of war before winter comes.

As a reason why he mentioned that Russia might attack Ukrainian heating and energy infrastructure, which they have already done on several locations.

https://poland.postsen.com/world/61735/Ukraine-Andrij-Jermak-Ukrainians-want-to-end-the-active-phase-of-the-war-before-winter.html

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

My spouse, who has a degree in IA with a focus on the USSR [he graduated and then the wall fell, so he got a masters in management], says with as much as Putin's people are threatening to use nukes? they don't have working nukes. Which well, makes sense. Its the kitten crabbing to look bigger, or the small dog barking non-stop at a 'threat' from someone.

Its bluster and bravado.

 

[Sheera Khan]

My spouse, who has a degree in IA with a focus on the USSR [he graduated and then the wall fell, so he got a masters in management], says with as much as Putin's people are threatening to use nukes? they don't have working nukes. Which well, makes sense. Its the kitten crabbing to look bigger, or the small dog barking non-stop at a 'threat' from someone.

Its bluster and bravado.

But would you like to test your hypothesis in a real world scenario?

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

But would you like to test your hypothesis in a real world scenario?

So, a part of me understands that its a gamble. But a part of me is very aligned to justice, loathes bullying, and have cousins being affected by this directly [I don't know them, I just know I've cousins in both countries - yay dna testing]. At what point does it become to late to do anything at all? And at what point do we admit that allowing countries to just do what they want because omg, they have nukes, is a very bad policy [and I mean the US too....]

We should have done something when Yeltsin invaded Chechnya, we should have done something when Putin [I think he was in charge by then] invaded Georgia, or Crimea, or.... We should do something now. Right now I feel like the whole world has become Chamberlain, or else another fascist state.

 

[Sid]

The war is still in early stages.
So far the tactics of the west work. Keep out directly and deliver to the Ukraine what is possible.
Why risking escalation into a nuclear war at this moment?
If NATO would move in, it wouldn't be over in a jiffy either.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

The war is still in early stages.
So far the tactics of the west work. Keep out directly and deliver to the Ukraine what is possible.
Why risking escalation into a nuclear war at this moment?
If NATO would move in, it wouldn't be over in a jiffy either.

One, I think if Putin had working nukes, he'd have used them. He's cornered and pretty obviously not in the best health, and corned beings are dangerous.

Two, by not doing something sooner, we've basically said 'we won't stop you.' and so Putin has had time to infiltrate how many countries? I don't even know. But I do know that in all likelihood, Brexit wouldn't have happened, Twitler wouldn't have been elected, Le Pen wouldn't have happened.... Sure, no way of knowing for sure, short of looking in on a different time line, and since we don't know if there are different timelines, and even if they exist, no way of giving them a peek.

Three, I feel like, if NATO or a UN peacekeeping mission were to take part, its unlikely that the war would take that long. I mean, if Ukraine with just equipment help is doing a number on Russia's forces, I don't think that they would pose a problem for the full military might of the west and allies, especially since it seems like there is a Russian resistance to this whole mess. Also, it might send a message to China that maybe trying to snap up Taiwan would be better held off.

Four, I can be wrong on things, I'm well aware of it, but most times, if I am wrong, its because I didn't trust my gut. Also, even if I was in one of the Eastern EU countries, I'd still feel that standing up to bullies is important. And the thing is, when I have in the past, they are the ones who backed down. Because that's what bullies are; cowards hiding their fear behind aggression.

And again, we should have done something in the late 1900s couldn't resist when RF started invading former soviet states.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Four, I can be wrong on things, I'm well aware of it, but most times, if I am wrong, its because I didn't trust my gut. Also, even if I was in one of the Eastern EU countries, I'd still feel that standing up to bullies is important. And the thing is, when I have in the past, they are the ones who backed down. Because that's what bullies are; cowards hiding their fear behind aggression.

Well the difference between bullies on the school yard and this war is, that

a) at school there are teachers, parents and other people who can lend you a helping hand,
b) no bully ever had access to nuclear warheads.

Aside that Russia has stopped being a bully at the moment when they've started their invasion; they are not a bully any longer, but the enemy which is something totally different. And then again an enemy with nuclear warheads.

 

[Sid]

One, I think if Putin had working nukes, he'd have used them. He's cornered and pretty obviously not in the best health, and corned beings are dangerous.

This would only lead to a Dirty Harry situation: "You've Gotta' Ask Yourself A Question. 'Do I Feel Lucky?' Well, Do Ya...PUNK?".

Yes, not all his nukes will be in working order, but if only 5 or 10% is, that still means 30 to 60 missiles ready to fly.
That would potentially mean 30 to 60 big cities wiped out in the Northern Americas and Western Europe, and if we are able to intercept them all it still would mean a massive air pollution world wide and in the end millions of radiation deaths.
And if they start to shoot those missiles, we have to shoot some back within minutes, that would mean the end of the large Russian cities and a ton more pollution added to the world's atmosphere.

It is really something we have to try to avoid IMHO.

Three, I feel like, if NATO or a UN peacekeeping mission were to take part, its unlikely that the war would take that long. I mean, if Ukraine with just equipment help is doing a number on Russia's forces, I don't think that they would pose a problem for the full military might of the west and allies, especially since it seems like there is a Russian resistance to this whole mess. Also, it might send a message to China that maybe trying to snap up Taiwan would be better held off.

Peacekeeping missions are only set in place by the UN. Russia and maybe even China would veto such a proposal of a NATO peacekeeping mission.
So NATO being directly involved in the Russia - Ukraine war, would just be a full blown war, nothing less. With al the consequences that come with it.
And since no NATO territory is under attack, there is no mandate to be directly involved.

 

[Chalice Yao]

This would only lead to a Dirty Harry situation: "You've Gotta' Ask Yourself A Question. 'Do I Feel Lucky?' Well, Do Ya...PUNK?".
Yes, not all his nukes will not be in working order, but if only 5 or 10% is, that still means 30 to 60 missiles ready to fly.

If we go by estimates, 10% would be in the ballpark of 500(!) warheads ready to fly. Russia officially has the second largest nuclear arsenal in the world, right after the US.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[detrius]

Yeah, that guy is probably dead by now, or on the run from those nazis.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Well the Russians always had some special approach to certain areas. Like for example have a look at this near perfect van, the UAZ Buchanka. This thing is in production almost unchanged since 1958, so you can still get brand new ones today.

It has from road to underside of the car 50 cms. It's built after the premise "Russians will do everything so that they don't have to build roads."

It's a four wheeled car, engine sits in the middle of the drivers cabin with service hatch there on top, so that you can add brake fluid to the engine while driving and do other fancy maintenance stuff. Basically it's an unkillable brick of a vehicle. Probably there are some of these things even used in their dirty war with Ukraine.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

They should try offroading in it some time. I've been on worse roads in Arkansas than what they were making a big deal of here.

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

They should try offroading in it some time. I've been on worse roads in Arkansas than what they were making a big deal of here.

Quit making fun of the interstates there.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

 

[Free]

When the war gets to Cincinnati.



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[Innula Zenovka]