The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

[Innula Zenovka]

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[Innula Zenovka]

This is an interesting thread on why the author thinks Amnesty got things so wrong in the Ukraine report -- essentially, a failure to understand the relationship between the Ukrainian citizens and the armed forces.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

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[Bartholomew Gallacher]

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Personally I don't believe such predictions any longer, until they do really happen. It sounds good, I would like to see that, not going to happen. The reason why is simple: our media is full of reports about Ukraine gaining ground, fighting battles and such. In Russia it's the same, just the other way around. Also how Ukraine is fighting shows clearly where its military lacks of necessary weapons.

Fact is that Ukraine was able to give the Russian army a bloody nose, and prevent occupation of the capital and other major cities, so performed much better than anybody would have thought in the beginning. But it's also a fact, that despite all "Russian army will be defeated" (in x days/weeks) and how retarded that Russian convoy was with its lack of logistics so far the Russians still were able to occupy about 1/6 of the Ukraine's area, and hold it until today. Also the Ukrainians often don't read the manual coming with the new weaponry, e.g. firing a howitzer 150x a day which was build for 100 shots a day, and then facing much accelerated wear&tear due to that high usage.

My opinion is at the moment, that unless another nation with a capable army will join Ukraine as ally on the battlefield in order to fight back or somebody will surprisingly replace Putin and then turn that thing around, that we've got at the moment a war of attrition which can take a very long time.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Personally I don't believe such predictions any longer, until they do really happen. It sounds good, I would like to see that, not going to happen. The reason why is simple: our media is full of reports about Ukraine gaining ground, fighting battles and such. In Russia it's the same, just the other way around. Also how Ukraine is fighting shows clearly where its military lacks of necessary weapons.

Fact is that Ukraine was able to give the Russian army a bloody nose, and prevent occupation of the capital and other major cities, so performed much better than anybody would have thought in the beginning. But it's also a fact, that despite all "Russian army will be defeated" (in x days/weeks) and how retarded that Russian convoy was with its lack of logistics so far the Russians still were able to occupy about 1/6 of the Ukraine's area, and hold it until today. Also the Ukrainians often don't read the manual coming with the new weaponry, e.g. firing a howitzer 150x a day which was build for 100 shots a day, and then facing much accelerated wear&tear due to that high usage.

My opinion is at the moment, that unless another nation with a capable army will join Ukraine as ally on the battlefield in order to fight back or somebody will surprisingly replace Putin and then turn that thing around, that we've got at the moment a war of attrition which can take a very long time.

We'll just have to see what happens, I guess.

I remember, though, back in May this guy was saying that, given the rate at which the Russians were running through men and equipment, they'd be in trouble by late August


and the UK's head of Foreign Intelligence was saying something very similar a couple of weeks ago

Russia about to run out of steam in Ukraine - MI6 chief

In a rare public appearance, the UK secret intelligence service chief says Ukraine could hit back.

www.bbc.co.uk

We'll find out soon enough whether he's correct.

 

[Sid]

The bombing of the two railroad bridges behind the front line by the Ukrainians is very costly for the Russian army.
They need the railroads badly for the transport of supplies and new troops.
I can see them collapse.
Remember that Russia only has an economy of the size of for instance Italy. This war is very costly for them, a lot of equipment is old trash and for a lot of their weapon systems they need parts produced in the west, but sanctions.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Remember that Russia only has an economy of the size of for instance Italy. This war is very costly for them, a lot of equipment is old shit and for a lot of their weapon systems they need parts produced in the west, but sanctions.

Some arguments to that:

1. The Russian army is getting paid in rubles only. This here is the currency exchange rate from Ruble to Euro; after the war there was a backlash, but it's actually quite stable now and more worth than before. In 2021 it was around 0,012, now it's around 0,016. (Diagram by Google).

So stability of currency is not an issue for Russia, it's more that they were kicked out of SWIFT. So as long as Russia can pay its soldiers, fighting can go on.

2. Russia is the 2nd biggest weapon producer on the planet. It's right, that one important question is how many of their weapon system are dependant on Western suppliers. Again something I would not count on too much of it, because it was always Russias military doctrine to manufacture as much as possible on their own. It's probably the more modern the weapon system, the more dependant on Western supplies... unless China is able to fill some of these gaps. Who knows.

Also Russia has a domestic industry to produce chips and other semiconductor stuff. While this is considered to be no match for the global market, and kind of backward (they've reached 28nm processing as new height), some of them might be still more than good enough to power weapons.

But if nothing else goes, manufacturing thousands of new AK47s probably will not take much parts to begin with.

3. Russia sits on vasts amount of oil. So running out of oil is not an issue for the Russian army. Also many ressources, which you else need to run an army, are in available in the country. Not all of them, but many.

4. Yeah sanctions, well... they for sure have an impact. Which is clearly visible, when for example car manufacturers no longer can put ABS or ESP in their new cars in Russia. But overall the more important question is: who really in Russia does suffer due to these sanctions, which parts of the society?

It will not have a big impact on the rich and elites, if any. Middle class yes, quite much, but lower middle class to poor again not so much. We should not forget that during the good old times of the USSR many families traditionally had their own little dacha, where they were used to plant their own crops and raise animals to survive. The productivity of these small plots were in total so significant, that in some terms they've dwarved the back then state owned farms. And big parts of the Russian population still depend heavily on this old system to survive, with the help of friends.

So my believe is that the sanctions mostly hits the middle class in Russia; but the poorer and really poor not so much, because they've always doing stuff their own way, and just will continue like that because they still are so poor that they never could afford to buy Western good to begin with.

5. While outdated and whatnot, Russia still sits on tons of old stuff. Stuff, which they can still use to kill people.

6. I'm pretty sure that Putin will only too gladly use also that war to get rid of parts of the Russian economy which did not support him in the past.

7. Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg who for sure has good access to intelligence reports, stated mid of June that while nobody can ever tell how long a war will last surely that this war could last for years, and will most likely end at the negotiations table. (Ukraine war could last for years, warns Nato chief). I'm pretty sure he had good reason for that assumption.

So it's for me a mixed bag. Again, what will come we are going to see. But I'm still pretty skeptical that this conflict will be over soon, which is sad. The major point will be if Ukraine will be able to launch a succesful large-scale counter-offensive operation, or not.

Also Ukraine is dependent now 9 billion US$ every month on Western aid money due to its crippled economy, which is another problem if the West will not increase help payments. (Subscribe to read | Financial Times)

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

My opinion is at the moment, that unless another nation with a capable army will join Ukraine as ally on the battlefield in order to fight back or somebody will surprisingly replace Putin and then turn that thing around, that we've got at the moment a war of attrition which can take a very long time.

I think it's more likely that Putin could be suddenly replaced by someone who wants nothing to do with this war and makes propaganda excuses to back out... From what I understand, most of the Oligarchs didn't seem to be on board with this war but Putin couldn't be reasoned with.

So it's for me a mixed bag. Again, what will come we are going to see. But I'm still pretty skeptical that this conflict will be over soon, which is sad. The major point will be if Ukraine will be able to launch a succesful large-scale counter-offensive operation, or not.

I mostly agree that it sounds likely this war will be dragged out and devastating for both Ukraine and Russia. I think Ukraine is likely to "prevail" in the sense they won't be conquered but they will be devastated for generations. Nobody is really going to "win" this war.

 

[Sid]

I think Ukraine is likely to "prevail" in the sense they won't be conquered but they will be devastated for generations.

The moment the war is over, Ukraine needs a sort of Marshall plan from the west.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Some arguments to that:

1. The Russian army is getting paid in rubles only. This here is the currency exchange rate from Ruble to Euro; after the war there was a backlash, but it's actually quite stable now and more worth than before. In 2021 it was around 0,012, now it's around 0,016. (Diagram by Google).

So stability of currency is not an issue for Russia, it's more that they were kicked out of SWIFT. So as long as Russia can pay its soldiers, fighting can go on.

2. Russia is the 2nd biggest weapon producer on the planet. It's right, that one important question is how many of their weapon system are dependant on Western suppliers. Again something I would not count on too much of it, because it was always Russias military doctrine to manufacture as much as possible on their own. It's probably the more modern the weapon system, the more dependant on Western supplies... unless China is able to fill some of these gaps. Who knows.

Also Russia has a domestic industry to produce chips and other semiconductor stuff. While this is considered to be no match for the global market, and kind of backward (they've reached 28nm processing as new height), some of them might be still more than good enough to power weapons.

But if nothing else goes, manufacturing thousands of new AK47s probably will not take much parts to begin with.
tern aid money due to its crippled economy, which is another problem if the West will not increase help payments. (Subscribe to read | Financial Times)

I think though, that Russia's big problem is getting their troops and equipment where they are needed and when they're needed, and keeping them supplied when they get there, because the Ukrainians keep on blowing up their supply routes and depots.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

I mostly agree that it sounds likely this war will be dragged out and devastating for both Ukraine and Russia. I think Ukraine is likely to "prevail" in the sense they won't be conquered but they will be devastated for generations. Nobody is really going to "win" this war.

In my opinion it will be already "good enough" for Russia at the moment if they can hold their annexion of Crimea, and are able after their fake referendums to officially declare the area of Luhansk and Donetzk as new parts of Russia.

I do agree that most of Russian elites didn't support Putins deeds, he run over them and surprised them. For further information I just refer to my previous posts about the Valdai club's internal discussion paper of January 2022, which in detail describes different scenarios and how that favorable the Russian analyst valued each. War with Ukraine had the worst value and outcome.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

War with Ukraine had the worst value and outcome.

Yeah. As I said earlier in this thread, my hope is that this sends a message to dictators and wannabe conquerors that the cost/benefit outcome of war is a lot less attractive than it was in ancient times.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Tighter export controls on electronics could hamper Russia's war effort - report

Russian weapons could be permanently degraded by tougher export controls in the West, a think tank says.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Tighter export controls on electronics could hamper Russia's war effort - report

Russian weapons could be permanently degraded by tougher export controls in the West, a think tank says.

www.bbc.co.uk

Well on the other hand we've got also this now:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

China's exports to Russia have reached pre-war levels again. They have increased greatly.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

The editorial office of TV format "Fake News" of Dozhd TV (TV RAIN), one of the view rea independent Russian TV stations, is now in exile in Georgie. Before their exile they exposed Russian propaganda to their people on TV. Now they are explaining it from their exile on Youtube in cooperation with German/French TV station Arte.tv.

The video's main audio language is English, even the Russian host Marsha Burzonova speaks English, and when Russian audio is played there are German and English subtitles. So if you ever wanted to know how inner Russian propaganda works, here's now your chance!

The order of videos is (Link to the playlist with all videos):

1. Russian propaganda for beginners
2. How the war is being portraied in Russia
3. The Russian lie about NATO

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Well on the other hand we've got also this now:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

China's exports to Russia have reached pre-war levels again. They have increased greatly.

The BBC piece was about the difficulties Russian armaments manufacturers are having sourcing specific micro-electronics components, manufactured in the US and elsewhere, used in Russian armaments and military equipment.

The Bloomberg piece is about exports from China in general, and specifically cars.

Not the same thing, I think.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Fake Western experts in Russian TV.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Thread

 

[Chin Rey]

Some arguments to that:

1. The Russian army is getting paid in rubles only. This here is the currency exchange rate from Ruble to Euro; after the war there was a backlash, but it's actually quite stable now and more worth than before. In 2021 it was around 0,012, now it's around 0,016. (Diagram by Google).

That ruble exchange rate doesn't really mean much since there's no real ruble trading going on on the international valuta market. Gaprombank is the only financial institution that deals with rubles at all so if you need some, you buy the exact amount from them at the price they charge and then you use it to pay your Russian supplier.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

It's puking time: Steven Seagal is right now in Donbass filming a documentary about the war. And the TASS has a hardon for him:

DONETSK, August 9. /TASS/. US actor Steven Seagal is filming a documentary about the developments in Donbass, Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), said om Tuesday after a meeting with Seagal.
"Steven Seagal is filing a documentary about the war in Donbass. Today he spoke with prisoners of war in the Yelenovka detention center. Some of its inmates have been recently killed as a result of a targeted missile strike by Ukrainian troops," Pushilin wrote on his Telegram channel.
According to Pushilin, "Steven noted that 98% of those who speak about the conflict in the mass media have never been here, that is why the world doesn’t know the truth." "He (Seagal - TASS) wants to change the attitude to this war," the DPR’s leader noted, adding that this is not an easy task and wished the actor every success.
The press service of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) said earlier that Seagal had visited Donbass together with the party’s leader Leonid Slutsky, who is also chairman of the international committee of the Russian Statep Duma (lower parliament house).

Steven Seagal filming documentary about war in Donbass — DPR head

According to Denis Pushilin, "Steven noted that 98% of those who speak about the conflict in the mass media have never been here, that is why the world doesn’t know the truth"

tass.com