Democratic Party Presidential Candidates for 2020

[Katheryne Helendale]

For a great many of us, beating Trump is everything. It doesn’t matter a candidate’s policies or personality if he can’t beat Trump.

The worst person who has ever run for president, including George Wallace, would be better than Trump.

True. However, by focusing solely on just who can beat Trump, you could actually end up with someone worse than, or at least as bad as Trump, particularly in the areas of diplomacy and competence.

 

[Porsupah Ree]

For a great many of us, beating Trump is everything. It doesn’t matter a candidate’s policies or personality if he can’t beat Trump.

Nobody here's disputing that. My point is that when it comes to polling day, there are always several percent of people who waver on whether or not to actually do so, and that simply being Not Trump isn't what will fire them up.

 

[Pamela]

Unfortunately there really aren't any other data sources readily available. I'm just saying raw poll data cannot be treated as gospel. That's too dangerous, especially today. There's a lot to consider when parsing poll data.

I am not treating polls like gospel, even when designed scientifically. But as you agree, it is all we have in the way of data about people plan to vote. No crystal balls.

 

[Pamela]

simply being Not Trump isn't what will fire them up.

It looks to me that Not Trump is primarily what accounted for the surge of Dem voters in the mid terms.

 

[Pamela]

I think it is easy to conflate “who I think would make the best President” — based on what you value most — and “who the best data suggests has the best chance of beating Trump” in what will be very tight race. You can vote based on one or the other criteria, and sometimes those can converge.

 

[Clara D.]

I want trump gone, so it's "who I think the maximum number of people will think is the best president."

Polls are all well and good, but to be honest it's too early for them to be especially meaningful, so I'm going more on "what kind of history do they have that the R's and/or their fellow D's will use against them."

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

I ignore polls and mostly look at their records. Because '16 showed that polls are pretty much meaningless.

 

[Cristalle]

Polls are there to manufacture consent. Don't vote based on what other people think. Who is going to move the country forward? Who is going to benefit the country most? That is more important than what any people think.

 

[Free]

Polls are there to manufacture consent.

Well look at you, being all Anarchy-ist. DOWN WITH THE OLIGARCHY!

 

[Brenda Archer]

Polls of “likely voters” are skewed toward old white people, who of course are going to prefer old white men. Not enough of them vote Dem to secure the election.

The Dem candidate has to get out the vote with every other demographic in order to win, while not alienating moderate white women.

Biden can’t do this, but Harris definitely could.

Media sexism and media conservatism are strongly arrayed against any female candidate. For either Harris or Warren to survive, they will need to do an end run around this somehow.

 

[Grandma Bates]

Most Democrats will have no problem voting for any Democrat nominated. But look at the pie graph I posted. If the nominee does not get a significant majority of the independents and third party voters, it’s all over.

I have no idea who will have the best chance against Trump, just that right now it would be Biden.

The person who came closest to beating Trump in the last cycle was a woman. A woman with a substantial history of negative attention and who neglected important parts of her base. All of the bland white men who went up against him went down in flames. Biden & Buttigieg will not rally the base, will not signify change with respect to policies that will help people, and they will not inspire a new generation. Trump knows exactly how to attack and manipulate men of their ilk.

Edit to Add: Biden still has to answer for pushing legislation that directly led to the imprisonment of a generation of African American men. Until he addresses that the only way I can support him is in a direct race against someone like Trump or Pence.

 

[Pamela]

Ok, I am just in the Beat Trump at All Costs party over here. <waves> I have my favorite candidates but ridding ourselves of the Plague is job one for me. I am a bit surprised Its not for anyone else in the thread.

 

[Pamela]

Biden & Buttigieg will not rally the base

I think the base is super rallied. They would vote for anyone against Trump.

But the Dem Base is at present smaller than the Trump Base. If that does not change a lot, Independents will be choosing the next President.

ETA Not that Hugh Hewitt is any Oracle but he makes some sobering points this morning re how easily Trump could win.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/04/27/election-isnt-going-be-close/?utm_term=.e671e74218da

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

I ignore polls and mostly look at their records. Because '16 showed that polls are pretty much meaningless.

I don't think that's true at all. When Comey announced they were reopening the investigation into HRC a few days before the election, the polls were showing Trump gaining on her at a frightening pace. The final result was that Trump had a 1 in 3 chance of winning and was gaining momentum. And remember that Clinton won the popular vote easily.

The polls are "right" 90% of the time and when they are "wrong" they usually showed it would be very close. I think that's a far cry from meaningless unless you can beat 90% accuracy.

It is true that the polls right now are meaningless, but that's because it's too early. Not because polls were refuted in the last election.

 

[Pamela]

Don't vote based on what other people think.

Unless your objective is just to beat Trump. That is something we will do together or not at all.

 

[Pamela]

I don't think that's true at all. When Comey announced they were reopening the investigation into HRC a few days before the election, the polls were showing Trump gaining on her at a frightening pace. The final result was that Trump had a 1 in 3 chance of winning and was gaining momentum. And remember that Clinton won the popular vote easily.

The polls are "right" 90% of the time and when they are "wrong" they usually showed it would be very close. I think that's a far cry from meaningless unless you can beat 90% accuracy.

It is true that the polls right now are meaningless, but that's because it's too early. Not because polls were refuted in the last election.

Another Good vs Perfect thing. Polls may not be perfect but I have yet to hear of any data source that is more accurate.

 

[Anya Ristow]

You know I'm the biggest Bernie fan girl, right?

I don't think he can beat Trump.
I don't think Biden can beat Trump.

I think either of them could have beaten Trump in 2016. Easily. But then, this happened...

Russiagate. It was a win everything or lose everything strategy. It failed. Cue The Price Is Right loser music. It did nothing but strengthen Trump. We're doomed.

In the next year and a half they're going to investigate the investigators. Y'all are going to call it a vast rightwing conspiracy, and I know some of you are still on the Russiagate train. Doesn't matter. Investigating the investigators should be bearing fruit by the time of the general election, even if it's just conservative press headlines. It's payback time, and there are clips of even Bernie riding the Russiagate train. Frankly, I think he threw his supporters under the bus when he let them be smeared as agents of Putin. Some of them are now Trump supporters.

Russiagate. It's going to bite every Democrat in the ass.

It's going to bite them in the ass from the left, too. None of the candidates who are corporate-friendly, have a conservative voting record, or are being pushed by the corporate media, are going to get enough support from the left. They've been called Putin puppets and Russian bots for two years and have had their concerns dismissed as purity poinies, and they're hoppin' mad. If you still think 2016 was about Russia and purity ponies, you're not going to like 2020.

 

[Sid]

it is as simple as teaching a kid how much one plus one is in Kindergarden.
Want to get rid of Trump?
Vote the Dem nominee in 2020,
no matter who he/she is,
no matter what the polls say,
no matter where you live,
no matter who is your personal favorite.
If there are large numbers who want to see Trumptydumpty fall of his wall, but still think that they can vote on a third party candidate or stay home and don't need to vote at all, then Amreica deserves a second term from the orange baboon. Sorry to say so. Then no lesson is learned from the last elections.

 

[Pamela]

it is as simple as teaching a kid how much one plus one is in Kindergarden.
Want to get rid of Trump?
Vote the Dem nominee in 2020,
no matter who he/she is,
no matter what the polls say,
no matter where you live,
no matter who is your personal favorite.
If there are large numbers who want to see Trumptydumpty fall of his wall, but still think that they can vote on a third party candidate or stay home and don't need to vote at all, then Amreica deserves a second term from the orange baboon. Sorry to say so. Then no lesson is learned from the last elections.

The Dems will Likely vote for the Dem nominee, but their base alone at this point could not elect anyone. To beat Trump we need to find out who among the Dems Independents like best and vote for him/her.

 

[Sid]

Someone who wants to get rid of TrumptyDumpty and votes for an independent candidate next elections, should see a brain doctor asp if you ask me. A vote for an independent candidate is a vote in favor of the Baboon. Liberal/ lefty independent wannabee presidents should know that as well and simply not run 2020 and save their campaign money for 2024 or later.

Dem candidates who find out that they are not the ace in the pack during the primaries, should trow in their towel quickly as well, to avoid a nasty campaign until the convention.