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Innula Zenovka

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'The human fingerprint is everywhere': Met Office's alarming warning on climate

The data highlights how a young generation has grown up in a climate unprecedented in a millennium. Future projections suggest that by mid-century a 60-year-old Briton is likely to be living in a climate 1.2C warmer than when they were born.

Scientists at the Hadley Centre, which has been on the global frontline of climate monitoring, research and modelling since it opened in 1990, said early theories about fossil-fuel disruption have been proven by subsequent facts.

“The climate now is completely different from what we had 30 years ago. It is completely outside the bounds of possibility in natural variation,” said Peter Stott, a professor and expert on climate attribution science at the centre.
 
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Beebo Brink

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Tanker crosses Russian Arctic route without icebreaker assistance
Ice maps by the Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute show that there are open waters in the southernmost parts of the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea. There is now only one-year old ice along the whole route contrary to last year when a belt of multi-year old ice covered parts of the East Siberian Sea.

Ice layers on the Northern Sea Route have shrunk dramatically over a number of years and in September 2019 the ice sheet was at its second smallest level ever.
 

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Innula Zenovka

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The coronavirus pandemic is probably the last nail in the coffin of our failure to deal with climate change. Countries will be focused on reviving their economies, no matter what the cost. The emergencies of today always take precedence over the emergencies of tomorrow.
Depends on the economic effects of the pandemic, I guess -- I don't think manufacturers outside particular industries can feeling very optimistic right now about their prospects for the coming years.

Everyone seems to think manufacturing output overall is taking a long dive -- that's what recessions and depressions are about, aren't they?
 

danielravennest

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Depends on the economic effects of the pandemic, I guess -- I don't think manufacturers outside particular industries can feeling very optimistic right now about their prospects for the coming years.

Everyone seems to think manufacturing output overall is taking a long dive -- that's what recessions and depressions are about, aren't they?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of how much money has changed hands in the economy. When it decreases, that is called a recession/depression. For the US, manufacturing is only 11% of GDP, while real estate and professional/business services are each larger than that. A lot of our manufactured goods are made elsewhere these days.

GDP doesn't capture all activity in the economy. If my neighbor gives me a ride to the airport, or I mow my yard, those are not counted. If I call Uber or a landscaper for those tasks, it is, because money changed hands.

There are currently 20.5 million people in the US getting unemployment benefits, vs the typical 2 million. To the extent those people have less money to spend, GDP will go down. To the extent the people not working did something useful - learn a new skill, or made home improvements, human or physical capital may have gone up.
 

Innula Zenovka

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of how much money has changed hands in the economy. When it decreases, that is called a recession/depression. For the US, manufacturing is only 11% of GDP, while real estate and professional/business services are each larger than that. A lot of our manufactured goods are made elsewhere these days.

GDP doesn't capture all activity in the economy. If my neighbor gives me a ride to the airport, or I mow my yard, those are not counted. If I call Uber or a landscaper for those tasks, it is, because money changed hands.

There are currently 20.5 million people in the US getting unemployment benefits, vs the typical 2 million. To the extent those people have less money to spend, GDP will go down. To the extent the people not working did something useful - learn a new skill, or made home improvements, human or physical capital may have gone up.
Yes, but real estate and professional/business services don't directly affect greenhouse gas emissions, so I'm not sure GDP is a particularly useful measure for this kind of discussion.
 
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More on the Arctic heatwave.

 

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Beebo Brink

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Will Big Business Finally Reckon with the Climate Crisis?

The future climate will not resemble the relatively stable climate of the past ten thousand years, which accounts for the full span of human civilization. “Investing in an environment where tomorrow doesn’t look like today is very tricky,” Pinner, the McKinsey partner, who was also on the panel, said. The global economy relies on endless layers of systems that were built within the stable climate of the past. All these physical climate impacts and thresholds—lethal heat waves preventing outdoor labor and destroying harvests, floods imperilling infrastructure and shutting down electric grids—will not just affect G.D.P. or decrease economic activity slightly, Pinner said. “Our sense is: no, actually, it’s an impact on the factors of production that drive G.D.P. And, therefore, it’s more structural.” He went on, “It’s actually an attack on wealth.”
 
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