Brexit.

[Free]

*Essence eyerolls a post*

I have to say I've never seen the point of the "disagree" or "eye roll" buttons unless they're followed up with an explanation of why the poster disagrees.

Free:

 

[Innula Zenovka]

*Essence eyerolls a post*



Free:

That went right over my head, I fear.

(Cue eyerolls, disgrees, bacons, Rupauls and the whole circus)

 

[Free]

That went right over my head, I fear.

Ibidish.

We're all in it together.

 

[Tirellia]

I have to say I've never seen the point of the "disagree" or "eye roll" buttons unless they're followed up with an explanation of why the poster disagrees.

Reaction buttons save us from actual human interaction.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Ariane]

A referendum is problematic in its way. Mostly because of the question that will appear on it.
Will it be a 2 way question like last time or 3 way maybe even more

May's Deal/Remain
No Deal/Remain
May's Deal/No Deal
May's Deal/No Deal/Remain
Remain++ (adopt euro, join schengen)/Remain/EEA/May's Deal/No deal. ...

I can't help feeling that the only way to come to anything like a fair result would be lots of options with a preference voting system. Which should end up showing what people are prepared to live with rather than trying to split a complex set of options into a binary choice.

The only way there can be a meaningful referendum is if the results are binding, meaning that Parliament must agree ahead of time that the results will be what happens. These choices must also be agreeable to EU, which means any speculative choices beyond remain and May's deal cannot go on the ballot.

There is no way a second referendum will happen without a remain option. If putting "No Deal" as a third option on the ballot gets the referendum the go ahead, MPs favoring remain should say OK, because there is a 0% chance of it winning. Either it will split the leave vote and Remain wins by default, or they will make it a two question referendum: Remain or leave, if leave May's Deal or No Deal. The Remainers will overwhelmingly pick May's deal as a second option.

The biggest problem with a second referendum is that the UK economy will continue to be destroyed systematically as long as the debate continues, but without a second referendum, the brexiteers will whine and bitch and moan and complain for decades to come.

 

[Tigger]

Agree, another referendum with a speculative outcome doesn't move us anywhere

 

[Tigger]

Farmers were very pro brexit prior to them discovering that its not actually possible to farm Brexit Unicorns.

 

[Sid]

Macron gives Johnson until end of week to overhaul Brexit plan

French president’s insistence that UK should give way raises chances of talks imploding

www.theguardian.com

I think it is time to sell my stocks over the next week and use that money to pay of my mortgage a bit early.
We are heading straight to a no deal Brexit IMHO.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Macron gives Johnson until end of week to overhaul Brexit plan

French president’s insistence that UK should give way raises chances of talks imploding

www.theguardian.com

I think it is time to sell my stocks over the next week and use that money to pay of my mortgage a bit early.
We are heading straight to a no deal Brexit IMHO.

Why so?

All the commentary on legal Twitter from constitutional lawyers suggests that the Benn Act, which requires the PM to ask for an extension if Parliament has not approved a deal by October 19 nor agreed to leave without a deal, is watertight and that, as a result of assurances already given to the courts, Johnson will find himself in contempt of court if he doesn't comply.

Furthermore, it's quite possible, depending on how a case goes tomorrow in Scotland (and possibly in the Supreme Court shortly after that), a senior member of the Scottish judiciary will be given legal authority to send the A50 request on Johnson's behalf if he refuses to comply.

There's no particular reason I can see for the EU 27 to throw the Republic of Ireland under a bus and play havoc with the economies of most of the EU's members in the west of Europe by refusing an extension, since the extension will shortly be followed by a General Election which everyone hopes will produce a Parliament able to agree on something, and I really can't see France vetoing it simply because President Macron is impatient and frustrated with the UK.

Nor do I place much credence in rumours that Poland or Hungary might be persuaded to veto it -- I don't see they would want to act other than in concert with the rest of the Visegrad Group or that they would want to upset their neighbours in Germany and Austria by blocking an extension.

 

[Soen Eber]

Naive question since I'm not closely following this: Could Ireland make a killing by being the middleman between the EU and Britain?

 

[detrius]

Naive question since I'm not closely following this: Could Ireland make a killing by being the middleman between the EU and Britain?

No.

1. The language barrier is irrelevant since everyone speaks English.
2. There's no land connection between Ireland and the rest of the EU (Great Britain has the Channel Tunnel). So if you want to use Ireland to facilitate trade between the UK and the EU, then you'd have to put everything on a boat (probably in Rotterdam), ship it around Great Britain, unload everything, drive to Northern Ireland, put it on a boat again and ship it to Great Britain... and vice versa. You'd be better off if you just waited the two or three days it'll take to process your lorry in Dover and Calais.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

Transport would most likely eat up any profit to be had by smuggling goods to avoid tariffs and regulations, except for a few easily portable luxury goods.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Naive question since I'm not closely following this: Could Ireland make a killing by being the middleman between the EU and Britain?

I am working in the logistics industry - UK based company by the way - and I therefore can tell you definitely: no. Our Brexit strategy is to move all incoming traffic which was imported directly into the UK but where the majority of destinations are in the EU to EU based ports&airports.

Customers do care about transit times - the shorter, the better. Chinese Amazon competitor Alibaba for example is erecting its first European hub in Liege, Belgium. Estimated size over 380.000 square meters which is gigantic.

Why Liege you might ask? Because the customs authority there is rumoured to be very lazy and not asking too many questions, that's why. Chinese companies are notoriously known for always underdeclaring customs values - e.g. a flagship smartphone with around 80US$ while in reality its more like 800 - at large scales and wandering around from one airport to the other.

One of the EU's fears though was/is that the UK might become an importer for Chinese goods at large - let's say Belfast, all going through the soft border to IE and then by ship to the EU. So if there would be no boded between IE and NIE, it would be on the ports between NIE and to the UK.

What in reality though is going to prevent this mostly: transit times. People want to get their stuff as quick as possible.

BTW: Boris Johnson is now also contaminating Snapchat withs his presence...

 

[Da5id Weatherwax]

...Though politeness can, of course, create its own misunderstandings
...

During the years I lived in the USA I found that "Brit politeness" was understood to varying degrees by folks in different parts of the country. East coasters just didn't get it. West coasters almost did. Southerners really understood the nasty kind of "Brit Politeness" - we simply have more ways to say "Bless your heart" that's all. In the upper midwest, though, while all the nuances didn't come across they noticed and firmly understood when the politeness got particularly correct and frosty that this is the usual predicate to a Brit hauling off and breaking somebodies nose or jaw.

 

[Essence Lumin]

During the years I lived in the USA I found that "Brit politeness" was understood to varying degrees by folks in different parts of the country. East coasters just didn't get it. West coasters almost did. Southerners really understood the nasty kind of "Brit Politeness" - we simply have more ways to say "Bless your heart" that's all. In the upper midwest, though, while all the nuances didn't come across they noticed and firmly understood when the politeness got particularly correct and frosty that this is the usual predicate to a Brit hauling off and breaking somebodies nose or jaw.

This reminds me of the way people in the US react to Monty Python. For me, it is some of the funniest material ever. Many people don't think so though. Decades ago I talked with some woman from England who was surprised I thought it was so funny because it was so British.

I did programming for a living. For some reason many programmers seem to like Monty Python a lot. Go figure.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

 

[Kara Spengler]

He is such an arrogant prick. The EU should nicely tell him to fuck himself and let the UK flounder.

I would LOVE for the EU to say 'oh, we heard you were having a quibble over there and are going to request an extension anyway so here is a 100 year extension'.

A nice long extension and anyone in the current debates to do brexit will be long dead by the time it comes around again.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Well yes from an outside view this idea has its charms. From an inside view most Brits are just fed up with their politicians talking and want to get finally redeemed from this living nightmare once and for all.

 

[Sid]

Well yes from an outside view this idea has its charms. From an inside view most Brits are just fed up with their politicians talking and want to get finally redeemed from this living nightmare once and for all.

And by now not only the Brits.
What a political fiasco.
What on earth should there be a new extension?
New general elections will most likely result in an even more divided Parliament.

The best way out, given the British political situation at the moment, would be IMHO:
A no deal Brexit on October 31. That followed by a long (maybe even 5 ,10, or 20 years long) transition period.
In that time a smooth Brexit could be negotiated step by step. And implemented step by step as far as possible.
And when all negotiating is done, when solid new agreements are in place, the transition period will end.

They could refer to it as The Nagy Solution.