Brexit.

[Kara Spengler]

I have to say I've never seen the point of the "disagree" or "eye roll" buttons unless they're followed up with an explanation of why the poster disagrees.

In most cases, anyone following this thread knows whether any of the regulars in the thread are likely to agree or disagree with particular points, after all, and I take the view that, if someone happens to be interested in the fact I disagree with something, they're probably more interested in why I disagree with the point than in the simple fact I do, possibly because they think they may find particular facts or lines of argument that I advance might be useful when the contentious point appears elsewhere.

So if I see a post that makes me roll my eyes, I tend either simply to ignore it or respond to it, as politely as I can.

Though politeness can, of course, create its own misunderstandings

By the same token, I do not see much of a point to agree (or most reactions) if only one point is made. Obviously if there is a theme to the points it helps, but if there are several unrelated responses (like multi-quote or whatever) a single response to the entire thing will not do.

 

[Kara Spengler]

*Essence eyerolls a post*



Free:

Which is why a lot of my posts are of the format "yes, ..." or "no, ...". A simple thumbs up or thumbs down does not always convey your reaction, especially when there are multiple points and/or you have something to add.

 

[Kara Spengler]

The only way there can be a meaningful referendum is if the results are binding, meaning that Parliament must agree ahead of time that the results will be what happens. These choices must also be agreeable to EU, which means any speculative choices beyond remain and May's deal cannot go on the ballot.

There is no way a second referendum will happen without a remain option. If putting "No Deal" as a third option on the ballot gets the referendum the go ahead, MPs favoring remain should say OK, because there is a 0% chance of it winning. Either it will split the leave vote and Remain wins by default, or they will make it a two question referendum: Remain or leave, if leave May's Deal or No Deal. The Remainers will overwhelmingly pick May's deal as a second option.

The biggest problem with a second referendum is that the UK economy will continue to be destroyed systematically as long as the debate continues, but without a second referendum, the brexiteers will whine and bitch and moan and complain for decades to come.

That is the big problem not enough people are focusing on. Most articles talk about what will happen as of the current proposed leave date for the time of the article. Rarely do they focus on the economic damage already happening (and which will still happen even if A50 is pulled back) because companies like stability.

 

[Kara Spengler]

Macron gives Johnson until end of week to overhaul Brexit plan

French president’s insistence that UK should give way raises chances of talks imploding

www.theguardian.com

I think it is time to sell my stocks over the next week and use that money to pay of my mortgage a bit early.
We are heading straight to a no deal Brexit IMHO.

You should certainly talk to a broker, especially if you are nearing retirement. However if whatever you are invested in does not hold a majority of their assets in the UK you are probably good wrt brexit damage. There is a risk of a wider recession right now though so it might be prudent to talk to a broker anyway.

 

[Kara Spengler]

During the years I lived in the USA I found that "Brit politeness" was understood to varying degrees by folks in different parts of the country. East coasters just didn't get it. West coasters almost did. Southerners really understood the nasty kind of "Brit Politeness" - we simply have more ways to say "Bless your heart" that's all. In the upper midwest, though, while all the nuances didn't come across they noticed and firmly understood when the politeness got particularly correct and frosty that this is the usual predicate to a Brit hauling off and breaking somebodies nose or jaw.

Yes, different cultures and countries have completely different norms! Just look at donnie with the Finnish President last week. I am not talking about donnie completely missing some comments, I meant him not realizing that Finns tend to be reserved and will probably come in with a zinger later. Actually there are some jokes about this, like 2 friends that never say anything to each other over the course of years until one does then a few years later the other complaining about the first talking so much. You can also see this with different cultures having different standards for optimum distance to be from someone you are chatting with (which leads to people migrating across the room at diplomatic events ... one person wants to get nearer and the other further away). Even within a country you have this, the norms I am used to from new england are different than someone from the southern US and we would BOTH be perplexed by someone from the west coast.

 

[Kara Spengler]

This reminds me of the way people in the US react to Monty Python. For me, it is some of the funniest material ever. Many people don't think so though. Decades ago I talked with some woman from England who was surprised I thought it was so funny because it was so British.

I did programming for a living. For some reason many programmers seem to like Monty Python a lot. Go figure.

Python!!!!

I grew up on 70s britcoms and other BBC imports. It is why I can naturally put on a few brit accents and confuse people from the UK when I tell them I have never been there.

 

[Sid]

You should certainly talk to a broker, especially if you are nearing retirement. However if whatever you are invested in does not hold a majority of their assets in the UK you are probably good wrt brexit damage. There is a risk of a wider recession right now though so it might be prudent to talk to a broker anyway.

I think the stock markets can easily collapse world wide because of a no deal Brexit.
And the last days I get the impression that more and more EU leaders are not really keen on yet another extension only to give the British parliament the chance to play their political games, without heading in any direction.
So yes. I'l get out of the stock market this week, for sure. Better safe than sorry.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Boris Johnson has surrendered to the Surrender Act

7th October 2019 The publication today of the judgment in the Scottish case against prime minister Boris Johnson is significant. On the face of it, the decision was a defeat for the petitioners. Th…

davidallengreen.com

Tl;dr:

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Revealed: the EU's point-by-point rejection of Johnson's Brexit plan

Exclusive: Leaked papers obtained by the Guardian show extent of fundamental objections Brussels has raised

www.theguardian.com

 

[Tigger]

Revealed: the EU's point-by-point rejection of Johnson's Brexit plan

Exclusive: Leaked papers obtained by the Guardian show extent of fundamental objections Brussels has raised

www.theguardian.com

I was just about to post the same thing. Johnson has of course been publicly claiming not to have been informed of the EU's objections to his plan. He really is showing himself to have a Trumpian connection to the truth.

 

[Kara Spengler]

A question, is a letter from bojo even needed at this point?

Maybe in the olden days it would not have reached everyone by now what another principality was up to but those days are long past. I assume the actual letter is just a formality? What if the EU just up and offered an extension to the UK because they thought it would need one?

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

I grew up on Monty Python, British literature [children and adult], and other british programming. I can't quite mimic accents, except when singing [or repeating something I've heard, but I can genenrally -place them-, which impressed a prof in college when I asked him what part of London he was from. I use british slang, have had papers knocked down for using british spellings, and online quizzes say I'm 100% british [though i was surprised to be told that I've a small but locatable amount of English and Scottish DNA]. I also have been told I don't have a sense of humour, because my sensibilities are for puns, dry wit and clever digs, not fart jokes.

 

[Kara Spengler]

I grew up on Monty Python, British literature [children and adult], and other british programming. I can't quite mimic accents, except when singing [or repeating something I've heard, but I can genenrally -place them-, which impressed a prof in college when I asked him what part of London he was from. I use british slang, have had papers knocked down for using british spellings, and online quizzes say I'm 100% british [though i was surprised to be told that I've a small but locatable amount of English and Scottish DNA]. I also have been told I don't have a sense of humour, because my sensibilities are for puns, dry wit and clever digs, not fart jokes.

Ah DNA. I am 1/4 Irish on my Dad's side and he got a DNA test. He was half Danish, as he expected, but the other half was British and he still can not figure out what happened. Supposedly the tests are accurate enough to tell the difference. My guess is someone born in Britain but moved to Ireland before immigrating to the US or maybe their parents were British.

I hear you on the humour! Between Python and absorbing Finnish culture I am more into slow burns and things like 'the ministry of silly walks'.

 

[Da5id Weatherwax]

Oh look, it's a Brexit negotiation....

 

[Innula Zenovka]

A question, is a letter from bojo even needed at this point?

Maybe in the olden days it would not have reached everyone by now what another principality was up to but those days are long past. I assume the actual letter is just a formality? What if the EU just up and offered an extension to the UK because they thought it would need one?

Nope. Para 3 of Article 50 provides that

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/577971/EPRS_BRI(2016)577971_EN.pdf

So the EU27 can't unilaterally give us an extension (well, I guess they could but Johnson could turn it down).

However, despite the way today's court ruling has been reported, as far British law is concerned, Johnson has made binding commitments to the court about requesting an extension in accordance with the terms of the Benn Act, so he has no alternative but to request an extension should he not be able to persuade both the EU and Parliament to agree to a Withdrawal Agreement (whether the old one negotiated by TM or this new one he's proposing).

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

The best way out, given the British political situation at the moment, would be IMHO:
A no deal Brexit on October 31.


That followed by a long (maybe even 5 ,10, or 20 years long) transition period.

What part of "no deal" is hard to understand?

A transition period requires there be a deal that defines the transition period.

No deal by definition means UK crashes out with ... no... deal.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Oh look, it's a Brexit negotiation....

Incidentially this is the 2nd most liked comment on the video:

And last reference to the Pythons for now: last Saturday their 50th anniversary was being celebrated in London:

In what is billed as an “extremely silly” event, hordes of Monty Python fans will gather in full Gumby attire in London on Saturday to celebrate the British comedy troupe’s 50th anniversary.

Kitted out in rubber boots, sleeveless sweaters, rolled-up trousers and with knotted handkerchiefs on their heads, they will attempt to set a Guinness World Record for the Largest Gathering of People Dressed as Gumbys.

“It’s all so excitingly pointless,” said Python Terry Gilliam, who will host the event.

Pine no more! Monty Python celebrates 50 years of silliness

In what is billed as an "extremely silly" event, hordes of Monty Python fans will gather in full Gumby attire in London on Saturday to celebrate the British comedy troupe's 50th anniversary.

www.reuters.com

 

[Sid]

What part of "no deal" is hard to understand?

A transition period requires there be a deal that defines the transition period.

No deal by definition means UK crashes out with ... no... deal.

It is not so that the UK has totally nothing to do with the EU any more after a no deal Brexit.
Both sides still need new agreements on dozens of fields.
There will have to be tons of negotiations to get new agreements in place.

That would go a lot smoother for both sides with a transition period in which the old EU agreements stay in place until new ones are agreed upon.
Only thing with a no deal Brexit is, that there are no directions for the negotiations set.
Without a transition period things could become very harsh, for both sides, but especially for the UK. That's why I'm in favor of a transition period, to get (partial) new agreements in place, without blowing up the economies on both sides of the North sea or even the whole western world.

If you want to be a purist and quibble over my word choice, call it an Almost No Deal Brexit then or an Transition Deal Only Brexit.

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

That would go a lot smoother for both sides with a transition period in which the old EU agreements stay in place until new ones are agreed upon.

That by itself is hard to argue with, but that's not what a no-deal Brexit gets you.

If you want to be a purist, call it an Almost No Deal Brexit then.

But to get that, you have to get both sides to agree to that deal.

Out of all the options that are actually possible, the best is withdrawal of A50.

 

[Sid]

I agree, withdrawal of A50 would be really the best thing.
But I would be totally amazed if there would be a majority for that in the British Parliament.