VVO Supporter 🍦🎈👾❤
- Sep 20, 2018
- SLU Posts
But that would require a Withdrawal Agreement, agreed by both the EU27 (under EU law) and the British Parliament (under British law), to the effect that the UK would cease to be a member of the EU on October 31 (or whenever the date) but would continue to trade with the EU27 as if it were a full member of the EU for the following however-many years while new trade arrangements were agreed.It is not so that the UK has totally nothing to do with the EU any more after a no deal Brexit.
Both sides still need new agreements on dozens of fields.
There will have to be tons of negotiations to get new agreements in place.
That would go a lot smoother for both sides with a transition period in which the old EU agreements stay in place until new ones are agreed upon.
Only thing with a no deal Brexit is, that there are no directions for the negotiations set.
Without a transition period things could become very harsh, for both sides, but especially for the UK. That's why I'm in favor of a transition period, to get (partial) new agreements in place, without blowing up the economies on both sides of the North sea or even the whole western world.
If you want to be a purist and quibble over my word choice, call it an Almost No Deal Brexit then or an Transition Deal Only Brexit.
I can't see either the British government or the Parliament agreeing to that, particularly since a realistic duration for the transition period would be at least 10 years and probably quite a lot more, and there would still need to be an NI backstop in place.
It would also be electoral poison in the UK -- both Leave and Remain supporters would hate it.
Leave would object we were trapped in the EU for an unacceptably long time (the life of two parliaments at least) and Remain would object to it because it took us out of the EU at a time when we in the UK who want to remain since we think it's the best interests of both the UK and of the EU27 that we do, and because we think there's every chance we can soon remove this dreadful government and replace it with a saner one.
Nor can I see any good reason why the EU27 would want it, since it still potentially throws the RoI under a bus (admittedly one that might not arrive for several years, if ever).