Brexit.

Innula Zenovka

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It is not so that the UK has totally nothing to do with the EU any more after a no deal Brexit.
Both sides still need new agreements on dozens of fields.
There will have to be tons of negotiations to get new agreements in place.

That would go a lot smoother for both sides with a transition period in which the old EU agreements stay in place until new ones are agreed upon.
Only thing with a no deal Brexit is, that there are no directions for the negotiations set.
Without a transition period things could become very harsh, for both sides, but especially for the UK. That's why I'm in favor of a transition period, to get (partial) new agreements in place, without blowing up the economies on both sides of the North sea or even the whole western world.

If you want to be a purist and quibble over my word choice, call it an Almost No Deal Brexit then or an Transition Deal Only Brexit.
But that would require a Withdrawal Agreement, agreed by both the EU27 (under EU law) and the British Parliament (under British law), to the effect that the UK would cease to be a member of the EU on October 31 (or whenever the date) but would continue to trade with the EU27 as if it were a full member of the EU for the following however-many years while new trade arrangements were agreed.

I can't see either the British government or the Parliament agreeing to that, particularly since a realistic duration for the transition period would be at least 10 years and probably quite a lot more, and there would still need to be an NI backstop in place.

It would also be electoral poison in the UK -- both Leave and Remain supporters would hate it.

Leave would object we were trapped in the EU for an unacceptably long time (the life of two parliaments at least) and Remain would object to it because it took us out of the EU at a time when we in the UK who want to remain since we think it's the best interests of both the UK and of the EU27 that we do, and because we think there's every chance we can soon remove this dreadful government and replace it with a saner one.

Nor can I see any good reason why the EU27 would want it, since it still potentially throws the RoI under a bus (admittedly one that might not arrive for several years, if ever).
 

Sid

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There has to be real quick thinking outside the box on both sides or on November 1 there will be an EU27 , a solitaire UK, and an economic massacre will begin to unfold, especially in Britain, that the world hasn't seen in a long time.

- A no deal Brexit would trow Ireland under the bus as well, if there is no transition period agreed. If Britain doesn't want or can't stay in the customs union and in the free trade zone, there is no other option than to recreate a border on the Irish Island. Now or in a few years, that doesn't really matter.

- An extension will only bring up more British parliamentarian 'role playing' without any sight of an outcome. They only agree to disagree on everything and general elections would most likely make the divisions even bigger in a newly chosen Parliament. So I perfectly can see why Europe doesn't want to go there again.

- Another referendum? You can't hold referendums over and over again until you get a no Brexit outcome. And without an agreement you can't ask the people what they think about it.

- I don't see British Parliament withdraw A50, they are to much divided.

- Theresa May's agreement once more on the table in parliament isn't really an option either at the moment.

Basically we are screwed.
 

Galen McGinnis

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This may have come up before, but 250 pages, and only paying attention when one or another politician tries to eat their foot...

Who profits from a no deal brexit?
 

danielravennest

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This may have come up before, but 250 pages, and only paying attention when one or another politician tries to eat their foot...

Who profits from a no deal brexit?
The wealthy who are hiding their money offshore, because new EU rules come into force in 2020 that requires reporting offshore holdings so they can be taxed. The City of London (i.e. the financial center in greater London) is a major center of hiding money offshore, for people all over the world. They would rather not have their holdings revealed, so they are the ones who benefit. It is also why they are so desperate to leave *now* rather than after the new year.
 

Kara Spengler

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The wealthy who are hiding their money offshore, because new EU rules come into force in 2020 that requires reporting offshore holdings so they can be taxed. The City of London (i.e. the financial center in greater London) is a major center of hiding money offshore, for people all over the world. They would rather not have their holdings revealed, so they are the ones who benefit. It is also why they are so desperate to leave *now* rather than after the new year.
Yes, money is on the line with this date. Which means it is not going to be like the previous extensions. I would not be surprised if those that stand to benefit financially (see the ppl funding brexit) would be willing to flaunt the law on the 19th and even not care about losing their 'majority'.
 
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Galen McGinnis

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Ah thanks, so out of the EU but still replete with oligarchs, most likely hunting for fire sales in the economic aftermath of the fire they stoked.
 
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This is all so confusing but there is one thing I know for sure. The UK will be booted out of the EU on October 31 if there is no extension. That is 24 days away. So we shall see what happens.
 

Galen McGinnis

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Worrying times all over. I lived through two Quebec let's leave Canada referendums, which were narrowly averted.
 
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Da5id Weatherwax

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No deal or no brexit ?
Then it had better be "no brexit" unless they want it to be 'no union" too. Pretty much THE argument that won it for the "no" side on Scotlands last independence vote was that by remaining in the union we were remaining in the status quo with the EU. A no deal exit will throw NI under the bus and up here in haggis-land we'll probabaly be gone so fast our kilts will be smoking.
 

Kara Spengler

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But but but BoJo wants to sell haggis to America sooo much! How dare the Scotsmen to leave then!!1!

WTF? Outside of immigrants from Scotland and people curious about a small taste I can not think of any buyers for haggis over here. Indian restaurants would do better but we hardly have to go through the UK to get more of those.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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Then it had better be "no brexit" unless they want it to be 'no union" too. Pretty much THE argument that won it for the "no" side on Scotlands last independence vote was that by remaining in the union we were remaining in the status quo with the EU. A no deal exit will throw NI under the bus and up here in haggis-land we'll probabaly be gone so fast our kilts will be smoking.
I've been wondering about this, though.

I mean, one of the primary objections to a no-deal Brexit is that it would involve a hard border between the RoI and NI.

Presumably if an independent Scotland sought to join the EU after a no-deal Brexit, that would involve a similar hard border between England and Scotland, which is a bit hard to imagine working any better than one in Ireland.
 
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Kara Spengler

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I've been wondering about this, though.

I mean, one of the primary objections to a no-deal Brexit is that it would involve a hard border between the RoI and NI.

Presumably if an independent Scotland sought to join the EU after a no-deal Brexit, that would involve a similar hard border between England and Scotland, which is a bit hard to imagine working any better than one in Ireland.
Well, they and NI could leave at the same time and join the EU. Poof, no border issues with the ROI, just with England and Wales.
 

OrinB

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Eventually an island of English embarrassment with a majority of antagonistic, short-sighted twats who think our own sovereignty means others will give us everything we ask for!!

I hope they can all afford it. It's going to get extortionately expensive to live here on that high-falutin white-cliffed rock of rain clouds!!
 

OrinB

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Well, they and NI could leave at the same time and join the EU. Poof, no border issues with the ROI, just with England and Wales.
umm... did you just hear what you said? NI leaving the UK will be more politically dangerous than anything else...
 

Innula Zenovka

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Well, they and NI could leave at the same time and join the EU. Poof, no border issues with the ROI, just with England and Wales.
No. Think of a map of the British Isles for a moment.

NI could resolve the problem -- and doubtless would, sooner rather than later -- by leaving the UK and uniting with the RoI, thus removing the land border all together.

There's no similar option for Scotland, since England and Scotland share a land border and always will do.
 

Bartholomew Gallacher

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Exactly; this can only be done when the old generation of terrorists&terrorist supporters has died, and the new populace became something else. It is because of that the there is a referendum part of the Good Friday agreement.

Also keep in mind that beneath Scotland also Northern Ireland has a national assembly, a parliament. Contrary to Scotland though the parliament in Belfast is has no government since January 2017 due to disagreements between Sinn Fein and DUP.
 

Sid

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Yes, gaining a handful extra fivers and tenners with Brexit by the happy few is so much worth it.
Isn't it?