US Election Day 2020

Aribeth Zelin

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Nah, don't worry about that. It's not going to affect the actual result and that's probably why Google doesn't bother blocking it.
But it could lead to -more- civil unrest, as people who buy into the lies get upset because they were -lies-, claiming their boy won and that democrats stole it.
 

Chin Rey

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But it could lead to -more- civil unrest, as people who buy into the lies get upset because they were -lies-, claiming their boy won and that democrats stole it.
Yes but the hooligans among them don't need more excuse than they already have and the rest of the bunch isn't going to hit the streets anyway.
 

Aribeth Zelin

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Yes but the hooligans among them don't need more excuse than they already have and the rest of the bunch isn't going to hit the streets anyway.
I hope you're right, but.... we're not nearly as civilized as Norway, or even the UK.....
 
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Jolene Benoir

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I kinda agree with this, but...

According to a piece I read several years ago, Jimmy Carter believes abortion is wrong except under certain conditions (rape, incest, danger to mother's life), and yet allowed policy to conflict with his own religious or moral ones. So in a lot of ways he was fairly progressive, especially for a Georgian Dem in the 70s.

Castro and O'Rourke were successful at running for and holding lesser positions in locations- Castro as Mayor of San Antonio, O'Rourke as Congressperson for Texas' 16th - that have largely liberal constituencies.

Carter as governor of Georgia...well, I just looked up a few things about his early political career. He won a seat on the Georgia State Senate in 1962 and was reelected in '64, but his first run for the governorship failed. Then he became a born-again Baptist. One might suspect this aided him in his second run at governor in a bible belt state. Also, the platform he ran on was not something you might call progressive (Britannica states he "tacitly adhered to a segregationist approach"). However, once in office his policies lead to him appearing on the cover of Time magazine, and talk of his being part of "the new South." He didn't run for a second term, instead announcing his candidacy for President.

So I wonder how effective a model Carter is for today's Democrats.

On the other hand, Bill Clinton is a very different topic...
Yep, you aren't kidding about Clinton and his legacy. We don't need any more old-boys. I LOVE Innula's idea of Stacey Abrams.
 

Chin Rey

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In case somebody are interested, here are some numbers how the Pennsylvania counting has progressed over the last 15 hours or so. I don't have the times for those readouts, sorry. What happens is that they keep adjusting the estimated number of votes up and Trump is loosing ground. As the figures look right now, Biden needs 56% of the remaining votes to win and he's been getting a little bit more than that of the most recently counted votes.

Uncounted votes (estimate)Trump's lead
912 000​
266 654​
856 000​
192 385​
856 000​
190 989​
777 000​
186 760​
778 000​
184 402​
782 000​
170 403​
784 000​
164 418​
952 000​
142 470​
954 000​
135 628​
956 000​
124 874​
958 000​
118 584​
875 000​
115 071​
876 000​
111 400​
 
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detrius

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I keep reminding myself that even if we don't flip the Senate - there's a very good chance it will be flipped in two years with no Trump to hold together that coalition. There's still time for them to focus on public campaign financing, getting rid of Citizen's United and the other underlying causes of our current state of awfulness. Assuming Biden wins. If he doesn't, which one of you Canadians has a few extra rooms?
Why settle for Canada? Check out Holland.

Legalized weed, more bikes than (healthy) people, everyone speaks English, beautiful cities, joppisaus - what's not to love?
 

Pamela

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Why settle for Canada? Check out Holland.

Legalized weed, more bikes than (healthy) people, everyone speaks English, beautiful cities, joppisaus - what's not to love?
I love Holland and if they allowed it would move there, except my progeny keep me glued to Texas.
 

Dakota Tebaldi

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Are the models/polling verified at all? Nah. Tufecki's comparison to weather forecasts is worthwhile. For instance, a few years ago the NHC started assigning probabilities to tropical disturbances on their 3 and 5 day chances of becoming tropical storms. After a couple of years, the data showed that they were consistently underestimating the chances of their medium probablity group (needed more high) so they changed their procedures. We don't really get that kind of feedback since national elections are so variable in nature, the mechanics are not well understood, and they just aren't well understood even after the fact.

Polling and models feedback into the system they are trying to predict.
But there is another problem election models face that they are especially susceptible to, and that is sabotage. It is the internet age, the age of Boaty McBoatface and "Pastafarianism" - i.e., substantial numbers of poll respondents giving deliberately dishonest or bad data en masse with the goal of achieving a poll result that is "funny" or rhetorically preferred rather than objectively accurate. Specifically when it comes to Trump, I mentioned a few days before the election that there was reason to believe there were whole masses of Trump voters who either were refusing to answer election and presidential job-approval surveys at all, or else were falsely claiming to be undecided or even Biden voters, with the specific hopeful purpose of producing a (completely manufactured) "surprise" or "comeback" re-election win for Trump in defiance of survey results.
 

Jolene Benoir

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But there is another problem election models face that they are especially susceptible to, and that is sabotage. It is the internet age, the age of Boaty McBoatface and "Pastafarianism" - i.e., substantial numbers of poll respondents giving deliberately dishonest or bad data en masse with the goal of achieving a poll result that is "funny" or rhetorically preferred rather than objectively accurate. Specifically when it comes to Trump, I mentioned a few days before the election that there was reason to believe there were whole masses of Trump voters who either were refusing to answer election and presidential job-approval surveys at all, or else were falsely claiming to be undecided or even Biden voters, with the specific hopeful purpose of producing a (completely manufactured) "surprise" or "comeback" re-election win for Trump in defiance of survey results.
That could account for some, but we are talking about a 1 in 10 chance vs reality. Could it have amounted to THAT much? Something is off. Maybe the method of polling. We've often talked about it targeting land lines, which not many people even have anymore. Not sure how much of a difference that would make either.

No matter what, our polling system is severely off.
 

Dakota Tebaldi

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That could account for some, but we are talking about a 1 in 10 chance vs reality. Could it have amounted to THAT much? Something is off. Maybe the method of polling.
I think it could possibly account for a LOT. I certainly think it could give a pollster the confidence to, say, give Biden a 90% chance, but then watch the actual ballots come exruciatingly down to the wire.
 
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Aribeth Zelin

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There are a lot of factors that have led to this, including a rigged post office hiding and throwing out ballots, foreign interference, a rush to declare states when they have less than 1% reporting - some of thes states that are still close but declared are still missing a chunk of the voting to still be done.
 

Sid

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Why settle for Canada? Check out Holland.

Legalized weed, more bikes than (healthy) people, everyone speaks English, beautiful cities, joppisaus - what's not to love?
Not enough housing, jobs, and space.
The climate is way to wet, cold and windy for what most Americans are used to.
When we talk about hockey we mean field hockey.
Football we play with a ball with our feet, not with an wobbling egg in our hands.
Our elections would totally make the average American heads explode: choise out of 28 different political parties last general election.
Our liberals are seen as a right wing party.
Although we all speak English, you definately need to learn Dutch if you want to fit in.
We are an overcrowded country as it is.

Sorry.
 
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detrius

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Not enough housing, jobs, and space.
The climate is way to wet, cold and windy for what most Americans are used to.
When we talk about hockey we mean field hockey.
Football we play with a ball with our feet, not with an wobbling egg in our hands.
We are an overcrowded country as it is.
Sorry.
Meh, Papenburg then. Neat little town across the border, and you can watch cruise liners plowing through the landscape now and then.
 

Aribeth Zelin

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Meh, Papenburg then. Neat little town across the border, and you can watch cruise liners plowing through the landscape now and then.
If I were to move back to Europe I think I'd want to move back to Munich - sure I -know- it has changed a lot since the early 70s, but it was the last place I live in Europe, and also well, where a good sized chunk of family came from on my dad's side [a few centuries ago.]
 
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Not enough housing, jobs, and space.
The climate is way to wet, cold and windy for what most Americans are used to.
When we talk about hockey we mean field hockey.
Football we play with a ball with our feet, not with an wobbling egg in our hands.
Our elections would totally make the average American heads explode: choise out of 28 different political parties last general election.
Our liberals are seen as a right wing party.
Although we all speak English, you definately need to learn Dutch if you want to fit in.
We are an overcrowded country as it is.

Sorry.
They have no sympathy for some kid with his finger in a dyke for years and years stopping the whole place from flooding.
 
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