The US-Iran War Has Begun

[Cristiano]

This one is incredibly powerful.

 

[Essence Lumin]

Since breaking news headlines sometimes change:
US and Iran fail to reach agreement after historic peace talks in Pakistan, Vance says

It also says: He says the US delegation will be leaving Pakistan.

US and Iran fail to reach agreement after historic peace talks in Pakistan, Vance says

Vice-President JD Vance says Tehran must make a "fundamental commitment" not to develop nuclear weapons. Iran says the US should refrain from "excessive demands".

www.bbc.com

 

[Noodles]

Doesn't sound very "historic" if it failed.

 

[Cristiano]

 

[Cristiano]

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

The peace talks in Pakistan led to no success and are put on halt. JD Vance traveled back to the states. Both sides are blaming each other for demanding unreasonable actions.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/apr/12/middle-east-crisis-live-us-iran-pakistan-peace-talks-jd-vance-delegation-leaves-without-a-deal

And BTW: probably the majority of the PhDs at the Irani side gained their PhD either on a British or American university. Abbas Aragchi for example is an alumni of the University of Kent.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

The causes and consequences of Trump’s defeat

The Islamabad negotiations were supposed to conclude the Iran War in such a way that the US and Israel would have something to show for the thousands of lives lost and ruined, the vast quantities of ordnance expended, and the huge costs incurred.

samf.substack.com

Evernote Link

If the situation continues to drift then the US will find itself increasingly marginalised. Trump seems keen to hand the problem over to the Europeans and the Gulf states and this may be preferable to waiting for the US to sort things out. These allies did not want this war, were not consulted about it beforehand, and now find themselves stuck with its dire consequences. Although they have provided the foundation for America’s global influence, Trump dismisses and derides them. Instead of looking for ways to get back into his good books, they are now almost past caring. They no longer trust the US to act sensibly and capably, to make deals and stick to them. What may well mark the next stage in this crisis, and in international affairs more generally, is other states finding workarounds to a lack of US leadership. This has already happened in trade policy and to a degree with Ukraine. The US will never be irrelevant but while it wields its power so incompetently and counter-productively then its international influence will be correspondingly diminished.

Not unrelated to President Zelensky's recent remarks

So in the space of a few hours, Zelensky implied that the US was working for/with Russia on getting rid of sanctions on Russia, on trying to get Ukraine to give up the Donbas in exchange for meaningless security guarantees, and that Europe needed to start imagining a defense future that did not involve the USA.

This can only be seen as a pretty complete change in tone from Zelensky, casting the US no longer as a reliable and crucial partner for Ukraine’s future, but now as a deeply unreliable partner who seems to be colluding with Russia while threatening the security of all of Europe.

Weekend Update #180: The Ukrainians Stop Pretending

Costs And Balances In Russian Oil; The Russian Spring Offensive After 3 Weeks

phillipspobrien.substack.com

This insight from the latter article certainly seems very relevant, and not only to Putin and Ukraine:

As someone who has studied states at war for my entire career, one of the greatest problems they all face is when they, particularly their leadership, see the war not as it is, but as they desperately want it to be. There is a massive pressure to make your enemy into a caricature that you believe you can control/defeat. My enemy is weak, will eventually collapse, will sue for peace, etc. Putin still seems to be inhabiting such a self-constructed world of hope. All I can say is that such hope often leads one to a miserable end in a bunker under a Berlin garden or on some non descript Italian street.

It is a good thing that the Ukrainian people understand the truth and the Ukrainian leadership is speaking the truth. It means that they are fighting the war as it is and not as they wish it to be.

Evernote Link

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Iran war: We spoke to the man making Lego-style AI videos that experts say are powerful propaganda

"Slopaganda" is too weak a term to capture how powerful this "highly sophisticated" content is, one expert says.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Iran war: Trump says US to 'blockade' Strait of Hormuz after talks failed over Iran's 'nuclear ambitions' - follow live

The US president's comments come after delegations from Washington and Tehran failed to reach a deal following lengthy talks in Islamabad.

www.bbc.co.uk

I thought blockading the Strait of Hormuz was Iran's job.

ETA

Comfortably Numb (@numb.comfortab.ly)

IRAN: We're going to close the Strait of Hormuz TRUMP: Hold my diet Coke.

bsky.app

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I've been wondering about this, too

Ken Tindell (@kentindell.bsky.social)

This author has chosen to make their posts visible only to people who are signed in.

bsky.app

The PRC will also be watching developments with great interest.

 

[Noodles]

I feel like a drone swarm with bombs and magnets that just fly in low and latch to the hulls of ships would sink a lot of ships.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I feel like a drone swarm with bombs and magnets that just fly in low and latch to the hulls of ships would sink a lot of ships.

And only last week

Ukraine Hits Russian Kalibr Missile Warship Admiral Grigorovich in Port Strike, Video

Ukraine's SBU struck the Admiral Grigorovich frigate in Novorossiysk with drones, a vessel capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles.

united24media.com

 

[Katheryne Helendale]

I feel like a drone swarm with bombs and magnets that just fly in low and latch to the hulls of ships would sink a lot of ships.

Would certainly cause a lot of damage.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade threat raises risks and leaves predicaments unchanged

The conflict is now a test of wills - Iran’s capacity to absorb strikes versus Trump’s tolerance for the war's costs.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Free]

Political Cartoons | Ella Baron

 

[Cristiano]

I swear that we all died in 2020 from Covid and this is actually hell.

 

[Cristiano]

 

[Cristiano]

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

I feel like a drone swarm with bombs and magnets that just fly in low and latch to the hulls of ships would sink a lot of ships.

The navy would most likely use some helicopters to intercept them, and as last resort some on board gatling guns. And as low cost weapon in the future some lasers.

Point is though: defense is expensive, while attacks are dirt cheap there again.

And if Iran would have some sea based drones like Ukraine it would look pretty much different.

 

[Sid]

Doesn't sound very "historic" if it failed.

A historic failure. Perhaps?