The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

[Chalice Yao]

Worse still, different factions vying for control of Russia’s nuclear stockpiles might force us to deploy ground forces to stabilise the region and prevent the wrong people gaining access to WMD.

Yes. Clearly. Because that would go over well. Shmaht.

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

The Anglosphere will save the day!

 

[Soen Eber]

I think we may be overinvesting in what is essentially a Potempkin village or performance piece.

Prigohzin knew, starting out, that at the end of the specific day that his troops would be strong enough to fight, but too weak to stay because an army starved of resources eventually dies. An army on the march without air supiorty eventually dies. An army without fuel eventually dies. No matter where he turned, if Putin prioritized attacking him, his entire force would be bogged down within a week, and destroyed within three. Supplies matter. Yes, Prigohzin has anti-aircraft, but how many liters of fuel can an anti-aircraft section carry? Not enough to avoid the main contingent of his army being stuck in a fixed position when the fuel runs out and the artillery starts raining down on them, so the only determiants would only be time and how much damage becomes self-inflicted by both sides.

Putin also knows this. His only problem is he stares into the mirror so often, and refuses to listen to others. Typical Idi Amin complex. This was a test of clout, not between Prigohzin and Putin, but between Prigohzin and the army colonels opposing him and their factions. Maybe Putin has become so isolated that a coup attempt was the only thing that would fix his mind on something else. If that something is a familiar face, he has the smarts to work things out in his head. No mysterious threat, just the rattling of a cage to get his attention.

Prigohzin shouted "Hey!". Putin shouted "Hey!" back. End of argument.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

And this is entirely plausible:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-latest-kremlin-wagner-soldier-march-moscow-140513024.html

British security forces told the Telegraph on Monday that Russian intelligence services had threatened harm to the families of Wagner leaders who were participating in the mutiny. This new information could be a potential explanation as to why Prigozhin called off the march to Moscow.

Insights from British intelligence also claim that Putin is now looking to absorb Wagner soldiers into the country’s military and dismiss all top Wagner commanders. The report cited a British intelligence assessment that about 8,500 Wagner fighters were involved in the mutiny, contradicting public reports that the number was closer to 25,000.

 

[Dakota Tebaldi]

And this is entirely plausible:

It would explain why, despite everybody saying that whatever deal happened was this Prigozhin guy "winning", I just don't see a whole heck of a lot of actual winnin'.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

It would explain why, despite everybody saying that whatever deal happened was this Prigozhin guy "winning", I just don't see a whole heck of a lot of actual winnin'.

Very few people have died publicly (so far). That counts as a win.

 

[WolfEyes]

Just a few dead drunk off vodka is all.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

Very few people have died publicly (so far). That counts as a win.

Considering the many permutations of events, including nuclear weapons, I'd say everybody won. The next phase will be a completely different matter.

Putin will not just shrug this off.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Taiwan spotted two Russian warships at its east coast yesterday. They were doing some practicing there according to the Russian war ministry.

Taiwan: Zwei russische Kriegsschiffe vor Küste

orf.at

 

[Sid]

Taiwan spotted two Russian warships at its east coast yesterday. They were doing some practicing there according to the Russian war ministry.

Taiwan: Zwei russische Kriegsschiffe vor Küste

orf.at

Judging on what they are doing in Ukraine so far, some practice is indeed no luxury.

 

[Chin Rey]

It would explain why, despite everybody saying that whatever deal happened was this Prigozhin guy "winning", I just don't see a whole heck of a lot of actual winnin'.

Prigozhin survived and he managed to keep some of his Wagner troops. That's actually more than he could have hoped for before his attempted coup.

Apart from that, Russia has now started the post coup purge. Unsurprisingly they focus entirely on finding scapegoats among the lower ranks of officers whilst Shoigu and Gerasimov go free. It seems Shoigu even was awarded a medla for stopping the coup. Oh, and Putin also accidentally admitted that the Wagner group is fully financed by the Russian government.

Form the Ukrainian point of view it could hardly have ended better. The most effective part of the invasion force is neutralized and the Rusian armed forces has to face two deadly enemies at the same time: The Ukrainian forces and the Russian high command.

 

[Sid]

Form the Ukrainian point of view it could hardly have ended better. The most effective part of the invasion force is neutralized and the Rusian armed forces has to face two deadly enemies at the same time: The Ukrainian forces and the Russian high command.

I don't know about that for sure. If Wagner is regrouping in Belarus, this Wagner group could make an attempt to attack from that side, heading straight for Kyiv.
And since most of the Ukrainian army is concentrated towards Russia and the Crimea ...

IMHO pretty worrisome actually. We don't know what took place behind the scenes that stopped the Wagner internal attack that quickly.

 

[Noodles]

I don't know about that for sure. I Wagner is regrouping in Belarus, this Wagner group could make an attempt to attack from that side, heading straight for Kyiv.
And since most of the Ukrainian army is concentrated towards Russia and the Crimea ...

Maybe thats the overall Ruse. Fake a coup, banish the people involved, oh look, now there is a conveniently located army.

 

[Essence Lumin]

Maybe thats the overall Ruse. Fake a coup, banish the people involved, oh look, now there is a conveniently located army.

I doubt it. It made Putin look bad. He wants to appear all powerful.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

Maybe thats the overall Ruse. Fake a coup, banish the people involved, oh look, now there is a conveniently located army.

We're talking about yet another narcissistic megalomaniac, here. Putin's already been embarrassed. He doesn't want to suffer more humiliation.

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

He’s going to need more windows.

 

[Sid]

He’s going to need more windows.

He just has to wait until they call him from India about the Windows. They are glad to help.

 

[Noodles]

Everyone always comments about the windows thing. And I just want to throw out, I watched that Tetris movie the other day, and even if had a "windows moment". Which was mildly amusing.

 

[WolfEyes]

Everyone always comments about the windows thing. And I just want to throw out, I watched that Tetris movie the other day, and even if had a "windows moment". Which was mildly amusing.

I have no clue what it means. Don't care either. lol

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

Lot of Russian political figures have died in "accidental" falls lately.