The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

[PandoraB]

wagner the army that putin was dependent on turned on him, and they are now on the road to moscow. All because wagner boss said the invasion was a bad idea, wich in turn made putin put a arrest order for him.

this reminded me of the last days of chaushesku

 

[Veritable Quandry]

The problem is he didn't say it was a bad idea. He said it was badly managed. The Wagner Group and the Chechens have been the most effective forces in Ukraine in no small part because they are the most brutal. The good news is that Putin appears to have pulled Chechen units to confront Wagner. I am all for letting these two militaries focus on each other and give Ukraine's civilians some relief.

 

[Sid]

Hold on! There seems to be a little confusion.

Russia coup latest: Kremlin denies Putin has fled Moscow

"Putin has not fled Moskow.
I repeat he has not fled."

 

[PandoraB]

The problem is he didn't say it was a bad idea. He said it was badly managed. The Wagner Group and the Chechens have been the most effective forces in Ukraine in no small part because they are the most brutal. The good news is that Putin appears to have pulled Chechen units to confront Wagner. I am all for letting these two militaries focus on each other and give Ukraine's civilians some relief.

yeah I dont think Wagner boss getting power in moscow will be an improvement, but at least it will give ukraine a good opportunity for a counter offensive

 

[Cindy Claveau]

 

[Sid]

From the live blog from the Dutch news site nu.nl: (Google translated)

Moscow mayor urges residents to stay indoors

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has called on residents of the capital to stay indoors as much as possible because "anti-terrorism measures" are being taken. He called the situation "difficult".
Earlier in the day, the security services in Moscow were already put on a higher state of alert. Additional security forces can be seen on the streets of Moscow and the streets around Red Square are closed off with metal barriers.

Monday will not be a working day in Moscow, Sobyanin said on Telegram. With a few exceptions, Moscow residents should stay at home to limit the risks, the mayor said. Also, all outdoor events in the city have been suspended until at least July 1.

Wagner troops seem to be moving further and further towards the capital.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

@ClashReport says that Moscow is ready to declare martial law.

Also, Wagner is reported 180km from Moscow, now.

 

[WolfEyes]

This is from last year but I felt that Misha's thoughts are still relevant.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

 

[Isabeau]

Ukraine responds to Wagner mutiny in Russia with caution, hope

While the leadership in Kyiv is weighing how best to seize the moment, average Ukrainians are far less optimistic.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Cindy Claveau]

This is called "Martial Law" in most of the Western world.

Russian authorities announce “counter-terrorist measures” in Moscow

 

[Cindy Claveau]

That squeaking sound you hear is Putin's butt clenching.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

Snipped from Washington Post:

Armed opposition group calls on Belarusians to ‘prepare’ to rise up
Return to menu
By Claire Parker
A group of Belarusian volunteer fighters that has helped Ukraine defend against the Russian invasion urged their compatriots to stay out of Russia’s internal strife and prepare to rise up against their own authoritarian government.
“Favorable conditions for the destruction of the dictatorship are rapidly approaching,” a spokesman for the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment said in a video posted to the group’s Twitter account Saturday. “This is the beginning of the end of the great tyranny.”

 

[Chin Rey]

And it's over, for now at least.
The civil war that is, the uncivil one in Ukraine still goes on.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

A putsch in Moscow is something you don't really notice elsewhere in the country until its over. I know that from personal experience, when I've been to Russia in 1993. The first time we heard about the attack on the Russian White House - which then was days ago - was when we were on our plane back home and newspapers were handed out.

We were staying in Pereslavl-Zalessky, around 140km away from Moscow and didn't notice there anything at all.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

And it's over.
The civil war that is, the uncivil one in Ukraine still goes on.

I had to look up the news to know what you were talking about.

Wagner forces have turned back from Moscow.

The agreement for Prigozhin’s forces to turn around was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who spoke with Putin before negotiating with Prigozhin, according to Belarusian state-owned news agency Belta. With security guarantees for Wagner Group on the table, Prigozhin agreed to stop his forces’ progress toward Moscow.

I don't see anything anywhere that says this is "over". Maybe it is, but I fully expect there to be sweeping consequences for all parties very soon.

Putin promised heavy consequences for the organizers of Wagner’s Saturday operation: “Everyone who deliberately embarked on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, chose the path of blackmail and terrorist methods — they will suffer inevitable punishment,” Putin said in a five-minute speech.

 

[Soen Eber]

An armored column that size travelling that distance will (1) no longer be rested, and (2) in urgent need of petrol. They will not be ready to engage in battle immediately and everyone involved knows this. They will need a friendly haven to restup and supply.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

I can't see this as being over. If Putin makes the changes Wagner demanded he is a puppet for the rest of his career. If he lets them off his projection of strength is weakened. If he directly confronts them Russia is in full civil war.

A lot of people need to stay away from upper story windows for the foreseeable future. Both factions will be looking to clean house.

 

[Chin Rey]

I don't see anything anywhere that says this is "over". Maybe it is, but I fully expect there to be sweeping consequences for all parties very soon.

Yes, I was a bit too fast there. I've corrected my post. There's bound to be an aftermath and of course as a general rule an agreement with Putin isn't worth the paper it's written on.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

It's going to be very interesting to see how things play out. Prighozin's feud with Shoigu and Gerasimov hasn't gone away, and one wonders what he's been promised to make him call off his advance and how they'll react. Meanwhile, Putin is hardly the kind of man to take this sort of behaviour lightly.

I suspect that both sides probably view this as more of a breathing space than anything else.

The Wagner column must need time to refuel and rest, and I imagine all the players are canvassing support among the various military commanders, while they prepare for the most opportune moment to start stabbing each other in the back (or front).