The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

[Cindy Claveau]

It's going to be very interesting to see how things play out. Prighozin's feud with Shoigu and Gerasimov hasn't gone away, and one wonders what he's been promised to make him call off his advance and how they'll react.

It may not have gone away but for now, Prighozin appears to have won. A pair of high level officials Prighozin has been railing about have both resigned.

 

[PandoraB]

tldr no more arrest warrant, shoigu's gone, and prizoghin will piss off to Africa operations (and if he's wise, dissapear there, because like every opponent knows of Putin, his days are numbered now).

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Dakota Tebaldi]

For the rest of the world, this is the best possible way this situation could have ended.

But - Okay so Shoigu resigns, and that's the only actual Russian concession, and the price is that Prigozhin is permanently exiled to Belarus and maybe Africa until the day he's eventually Novochok'd?

Is this really a victory for Prigozhin? Was A really worth B, to him?

Maybe he just really hates the guy, I dunno.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Sid]

It might be far from over internally in Russia IMHO.
Putin has lost face over the last few days. Big time.

And I think the last two days have shown that the Russian army is far more incapable and worn out than we in the west thought.
Even unable to stop a convoy on one single motorway. Not real good advertising.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

As someone pointed out on Twitter, there were two revolutions in Russia in 1917. The February one didn't last long.

 

[WolfEyes]

As someone pointed out on Twitter, there were two revolutions in Russia in 1917. The February one didn't last long.

Immediately followed by a pandemic in 1918. It's been estimated that nearly a half million died from the Spanish Flu.

The first reports of widespread and sometimes fatal cases of influenza appeared in Russia in August 1918, as part of the global wave known as the ‘Spanish’ influenza. Over the next three years, however, a series of cascading political, social and health crises overwhelmed Russia, thus overshadowing the impact of the Ispanka, a truncated combination of the Russian terms, Ispanskii gripp, or ‘Spanish influenza’. Given that the total number of Russian deaths in the period from the 1917 Revolution to the famine of 1921 may have exceeded 10 million, the Ispanka was seemingly absorbed into the broader crises of these years, which in turn has contributed to the omission of Russia from most global histories of the epidemic.

The Ispanka in Historical Context: The 1918 Influenza Epidemic in the Soviet Union

Abstract. The first reports of widespread and sometimes fatal cases of influenza appeared in Russia in August 1918, as part of the global wave known as the

academic.oup.com

 

[detrius]

I'd like to point out that Rostov-on-Don is the largest city captured by Russian soldiers since the beginning of the war.

 

[Sid]

I'd like to point out that Rostov-on-Don is the largest city captured by Russian soldiers since the beginning of the war.

They almost got Moscow too.

 

[Chin Rey]

For the rest of the world, this is the best possible way this situation could have ended.

Not for the people of Belarus. Lukashenko got himself a substantial bodyguard out of the deal.

Is this really a victory for Prigozhin? Was A really worth B, to him?

I suspect what Prigozhin really tried to do was simply to survive and it seems he achieved that.

 

[Sheera Khan]

My thinking is:
1) Prig couldn't get any nearer to Kiew than from Belarussian territory and he still has a considerable army.
2) Ukraine might not have diverted the most experienced troops to their northern border
3) Belarussia might not be too keen on participating in a war, but supplying Prig with ammo is a different thing...
4) Being out of Russia keeps him safe from any quarrel with Shoigu and Gerassimov
5) After a successful attack by Prig on Kiew all will be friends and the whole kaboodle was only a tactical fint
So: No! It's not over! At least not IMHO.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

The cooks, their wives, the thieves, and big brother

Chefs and tyrants: a culinary take on a failed coup

nickcohen.substack.com

I think this is free to read. If it's not here's a link.

 

[Free]

Priorities.



Maglink

 

[Chin Rey]

The cooks, their wives, the thieves, and big brother

Chefs and tyrants: a culinary take on a failed coup

nickcohen.substack.com

I think this is free to read. If it's not here's a link.

Hmmm, yes, maybe. But was Prigohzin ever just a chef? A YouTube video I watched today pointed out something rather interesting nobody seems to have noticed before.
When Prigozhin got out of jail, he started building his fortune running a hot dog stand. That's not normally the beginning of a great business venture of course but it does have a few advantages for an aspiring oligarch. It's almost all cash transactions for a start so hard for the authorities to keep track. And out on the street there are always options to discreetly sell some ... ummm ... more valuable merchandise on the side...

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Hmmm, yes, maybe. But was Prigohzin ever just a chef? A YouTube video I watched today pointed out something rather interesting nobody seems to have noticed before.
When Prigozhin got out of jail, he started building his fortune running a hot dog stand. That's not normally the beginning of a great business venture of course but it does have a few advantages for an aspiring oligarch. It's almost all cash transactions for a start so hard for the authorities to keep track. And out on the street there are always options to discreetly sell some ... ummm ... more valuable merchandise on the side...

Possibly, but he certainly went on to set up and run two successful restaurants in St Petersburg, the Old Customs House and, later, the New Island (at which he was famously photographed serving dinner to George W Bush).

Back in 1990, remember, hot dog stalls were a complete novelty in Russia. He wouldn't have been able to make a success of it without being mobbed up, of course, and neither would he have been able to use the profits from his hot dog business to open grocery stores and later casinos, his other enterprises at the time, because that's the way business in St P worked back then (and probably still does).

 

[Cindy Claveau]

Hmmm, yes, maybe. But was Prigohzin ever just a chef?

Kinda like Clinton was never really a jazz musician. It's show.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

[Off topic: Was posting that reply when my local Monday Noon tornado siren test goes off. I immediately thought we were getting nuked!)

 

[Dakota Tebaldi]

Well, don't put too much stock in this until something actually happens. This guy paid for Twitter Blue.