The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

[bubblesort]

Here's a list of companies who have pulled out of Russia, followed by a list of companies who have not yet pulled out of Russia.

This list is sourced from a Yale professor, so it's pretty reliable, but it is a little bit dated. McDonalds, Coke, and Starbucks are kind of doing token withdrawals from Russia. McDonalds, for example is explicitly saying that their closing of 850 restaurants is temporary. At least they are pulling out, though.

I think Pepsi won't pull out on any level. They are hoping they can get a good deal on Russian war ships, to add to their collection, when Russia's economy goes belly-up again. Last time it happened they got a fleet of subs out of the deal!

The rest of the companies who haven't pulled out are kind of a who's who list of shitty companies. Companies like Kellogg's and Deere, Papa Johns, and Philip Morris. You know, companies who just feel sleazy to work with every time you give them your money. That's the only kind of company who operates in Russia now.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

This is a very interesting discussion on history in regards Ukraine.

 

[Chin Rey]

Here are some stats that I've found interesting.

Most of the Russian army's frontline force is organized into 168 "battalion tactical units", each with a fighting strength of about 800. That adds up to 130,00-135,000 persons. The total strength of Russian standing ground forces has been estimated to about 395,000. (Back in 1995-1996 it was estimated to about 695,000, so a very significant reduction.) Russia also has a reserve of about two million troops but they are untrained so even if they were called in today it would take months before they were ready for battle.
More than 100 of the battalion tactical units, less than 100,000 troops, are already in Ukraine and since the Russian army has several other commitments there's not much chance they have much forces to spare.

The Ukrainian army started the war with a total strength of 169,000. In addition they had a reseve of 400,000 veterans with significant and recent battle experience. Now they also have a large but unknown number of fighting "civilians" (expect they aren't civilians anymore of course) with dubious but still significant fighting abilities and an international legion of 20,000 (and growing) experienced soldiers from all over the world.

In other words, contrary to what we've usually been told, when it comes to "boots on the ground", Russia is and will continue to be hopelessly outnumbered in Ukraine. The current Ukrainian army actually outnumbers not just the Russian invading forces but the the entire Russian army.

The problem Ukraine faced at the beginning of the war wasn't that they were outnumbered, they lacked the equipment. They didn't even have enough small arms to equip all their troops, let alone heavier stuff. That is changing though. The Russian equipment turned out to be not quite as ... durable ... as expected and Ukraine is starting to get considerable supplies from the west.

This fight isn't nearly as one-sided as we and all the experts thought.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

This is a very interesting discussion on history in regards Ukraine.

GREAT video! On one hand, it's very depressing to think already struggling social programs and infrastructure plans will maybe take a back seat for more war spending, but I'm also very hopeful for how well the world has become united behind Ukraine. I think the global understanding of war has evolved so much from WWI and before and this has mostly lead to good results. WWI was the way it was in part because every major nation was lead by a schemer, but now Putin stands out a lot more (and not in the way he wants to).

I also can't help but wonder if it is almost impossible to conquer land in a profitable way in the way ancient empires did. Medieval and earlier peasants didn't really care who they paid their taxes to and had no concept of a nation state often enough. Recent occupations have often resulted in insurgencies that make it a lot harder to hold territory or for it to be worth it. I'd hope that cost deters more invasions for people who don't care about the human costs.

 

[Chin Rey]

I also can't help but wonder if it is almost impossible to conquer land in a profitable way in the way ancient empires did.

One serious game changer is that infantry has become far more important again. Anti-vehicle and anti-aircraft missile launchers, some small enough they can be carried and operated by a single person, others slightly heavier but still portable enough they only need a small crew, have given the regular foot soldiers far more power than they ever had before.

With hindsight that was demonstrated during the afghanistan wars but it was overlooked even by experts because the terrain there favours guerilla units so much. That's not the case in Ukraine so now obvious for anybody to see.

Unfortunately this is very much a two edged sword. As you say, it makes it much harder for big powers to dominate but on the other hand it can also give far more power to all kinds of small extremist groups.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

This is something that I had been wondering about.

Russian ex-minister says invasion of Ukraine is stalling because officials stole from military budget for 'mega-yachts in Cyprus'

Andrey Kozyrev argued that Russia's invasion was not going to plan early because President Vladimir Putin did not know the true state of his military.

www.businessinsider.com

Putin has surrounded himself with corrupt henchmen. It would not surprise me at all that the military budget has been skimmed by the criminals he put in charge of it. Leading to lack of training and maintenance as well as substandard parts and supplies.

 

[Chin Rey]

This is something that I had been wondering about.

Russian ex-minister says invasion of Ukraine is stalling because officials stole from military budget for 'mega-yachts in Cyprus'

Andrey Kozyrev argued that Russia's invasion was not going to plan early because President Vladimir Putin did not know the true state of his military.

www.businessinsider.com

Putin has surrounded himself with corrupt henchmen. It would not surprise me at all that the military budget has been skimmed by the criminals he put in charge of it. Leading to lack of training and maintenance as well as substandard parts and supplies.

That may also explain one of the really big mysteries nobody has been able to solve: where is the Russian air force?

 

[Chin Rey]

Time to revisit this one:

It turns out this isn't a regular POW. The man speaking is Lieutenant Colonel Astakhov Dmitry Mikhailovich, so a senior officer!

 

[Free]

...

Who are you quoting in your reply? Because it was not me...Ah, it was GoblinCampFollower just above you...

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

The UK's ministry of defense with one important insight: according to them Russia still has not air superiority over Ukraine, because Ukraine's anti air attack defenses are performing way better than thought.

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Ukrainian MP thread:

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Victoria Nuland is back, and she stated as "Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs" before the US Senate this:

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Here's an interesting Twitter thread about the reasons why Russia does not export complex machines... much (not talking about weapons). In the past the Russians clearly have demonstrated their ability to design and produce complex machines, up and foremost for sure in cosmonautics. But nowadays Russia's economy is not based on that...

Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani)

1990s oligarchs are more complex but lower in dominance hierarchy. They took something that they could administer without ruining it immediately - the metallurgy. Ofc they're ruining it slowly. They're depleting old deposits without developing new ones. But it will take time

nitter.net

 

[Sid]

From the live blog of the Dutch RTL News: Chernobyl nuclear power plant has no power!!!

Translated with Google:
Ukrainian authorities say power to the old Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been cut.
The emergency generators are switched on, reports AP news agency. The question is how much diesel is available: according to the authorities, there is only enough for 48 hours.

Due to the fighting in the region, it is currently impossible to restore the power supply.

The Ukrainian state-owned company Energoatom reports that radioactive materials can be released if the nuclear fuel cannot be cooled. The radioactive cloud could travel through the wind to other regions of Ukraine, Belarus, Russia and Europe. Without power, the factory's ventilation systems would also fail, exposing the workforce to dangerous doses of radiation.



ADD: I now found it on The Guardian too:

Chernobyl power supply cut but IAEA says no imminent safety threat

UN’s nuclear watchdog voices concern over ‘worsening’ situation for staff at defunct Ukrainian plant

www.theguardian.com

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Having no electrical power and backup power ready on time is what made Fukushima go boom.

 

[Sid]

And 48 hours of backup supply isn't really that much.
So where did I put my tin foiled hat?

 

[Arkady Arkright]

And 48 hours of backup supply isn't really that much.
So where did I put my tin foiled hat?

Lead foil might be more appropriate...

 

[WolfEyes]

Victoria Nuland is back, and she stated as "Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs" before the US Senate this:

Was she talking about the Russians (Putin) or the Republicans? (rhetorical) They sound so much a like these days it is difficult to tell them apart.

 

[WolfEyes]

From the live blog of the Dutch RTL News: Chernobyl nuclear power plant has no power!!!

Translated with Google:
Ukrainian authorities say power to the old Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been cut.
The emergency generators are switched on, reports AP news agency. The question is how much diesel is available: according to the authorities, there is only enough for 48 hours.

Due to the fighting in the region, it is currently impossible to restore the power supply.

The Ukrainian state-owned company Energoatom reports that radioactive materials can be released if the nuclear fuel cannot be cooled. The radioactive cloud could travel through the wind to other regions of Ukraine, Belarus, Russia and Europe. Without power, the factory's ventilation systems would also fail, exposing the workforce to dangerous doses of radiation.



ADD: I now found it on The Guardian too:

Chernobyl power supply cut but IAEA says no imminent safety threat

UN’s nuclear watchdog voices concern over ‘worsening’ situation for staff at defunct Ukrainian plant

www.theguardian.com

Putin is the type that if he can't have it, no one can, so he will destroy as much of the world as he can before he is wiped from the face of the earth.

 

[bubblesort]

From the live blog of the Dutch RTL News: Chernobyl nuclear power plant has no power!!!

Translated with Google:
Ukrainian authorities say power to the old Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been cut.
The emergency generators are switched on, reports AP news agency. The question is how much diesel is available: according to the authorities, there is only enough for 48 hours.

Due to the fighting in the region, it is currently impossible to restore the power supply.

The Ukrainian state-owned company Energoatom reports that radioactive materials can be released if the nuclear fuel cannot be cooled. The radioactive cloud could travel through the wind to other regions of Ukraine, Belarus, Russia and Europe. Without power, the factory's ventilation systems would also fail, exposing the workforce to dangerous doses of radiation.



ADD: I now found it on The Guardian too:

Chernobyl power supply cut but IAEA says no imminent safety threat

UN’s nuclear watchdog voices concern over ‘worsening’ situation for staff at defunct Ukrainian plant

www.theguardian.com

I really don't think people are taking this seriously enough. I think it's like a singularity they can't see past, and that scares them if they think too hard about it. Especially milennials, who didn't grow up with the nuclear threat like the older generations did.

The IAEA statement isn't really them saying, "don't panic." It's them saying, "DON'T PANIC!!! DON'T PANIC!!! DON'T PANIC!!!" They are hoping nobody notices the difference, and they can sort this out with some behind the scenes negotiations or something. I have no faith that the Russians are capable of negotiation. They can't even clear evacuation routes for civilians properly. The only thing they seem to do properly is grow sunflowers.