The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

[Chin Rey]

His argument goes like this: Ukraine is unable to win the war with their military forces alone. Sanctions are not enough to put Russia down, and third countries sending their armies as support troops is equal to joint suicide because then Russia would highly likely use nuclear warheards.

I'm not going to say what the Ukrainians should do. Whether they surrender or not, they are the ones who will have to suffer the most of the conseqences. However:

There is no guarantee a surrender will stop the slaughtering of civiians. Putin is perfectly capable of committing genocide and he may well decide it's in his best interest to do so. After all the most efficient way to pacify a people is to kill them all.

More and more military experts are beginning to speculate that Ukraine may actually win the war. Russia is still the strongest force but they are getting weaker every day whilst the Ukrainian forces are getting stronger. Ukraine also has by far the best strategy and they have the home field advantage.

The mood in the Russian population is slowly but surely shifting and Putin can't completely ignore that. He had to fire eight generals as scapegoats to apease the population and there's probably more to come.

The economic sanctions do work because Russia's industrial capacity is not nearly big enough to replenish the material losses in Ukraine. Trucks are a good example of this. Ukraine has deliberately targetted supply convoys and Russia is running out of trucks. Without supplies of fuel, ammunition and food even the strongest army is bound to fail.

Russia can not afford to commit all their forces in Ukraine. They have lots of troops stuck in Syria, they need to pacify Belarus, they need to keep an eye on the borders to NATO, they need to watch out in Chechnya and probably several other unruly areas too and they can't completely ignore the border to China.

Russia is totally dependent on China and China's support is dwindling fast. If/when Xi Jinping decides enough is enough, it's over.

 

[Chin Rey]

Sure it could be the case that Russia's military command is just actually that stupid and its field force really is just that overhyped and unfit for purpose....but...from my idiot-on-the-internet POV it kinda almost looks like somebody somewhere has been sandbagging Russia's whole program. Maybe several somebodies.

I've heard several credible explanations for the Russian army's poor performance and that's one of them. The truth is porbably a mixture of them all.

 

[Soen Eber]

I would not at all be surprised if anti war feelings - and actions - fall all the way down the chain of command, as well as lethargy. Large military establishments love nothing more than peace, where no one is bothering them, and fear war quite rightly, as it is a horribly inconveniant. No warm bed to return to from training, no hot meals, people shouting at them with everyone confused, no weekends to go home and see the family or girlfriend.

Training Stability is the real job of many militaries, and looking scary to keep scary people away.

 

[WolfEyes]

Training Stability is the real job of many militaries, and looking scary to keep scary people away.

It's not the combat training that makes the military so appealing to so many. It's the stability. It's why judges often will give a convict the choice, jail or military. Not as a disciplinary action but as a means to get their lives on track, rehabilitation. It wasn't foolproof but it worked more often than not.

Just don't ever send underaged kids to military academy. That will ruin them.

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

Just don't ever send underaged kids to military academy. That will ruin them.

The real story of Ender's Game.

 

[Soen Eber]

It's not the combat training that makes the military so appealing to so many. It's the stability. It's why judges often will give a convict the choice, jail or military. Not as a disciplinary action but as a means to get their lives on track, rehabilitation. It wasn't foolproof but it worked more often than not.

Just don't ever send underaged kids to military academy. That will ruin them.

I remember many news stories about privately run boot camps in South Dakota for troubled teens. Very frightening and scarring, yes ... I hope boot camps are still banned there. South Dakota - Minnesota's weird uncle.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

I think a lot of this is a bluff, myself. We're not dealing with the Soviet Union - we're dealing with a country that's been robbed by the people at the top. We're dealing with someone who worries a lot about appearances.

And cards aren't the only games where bluffing is a thing.

 

[Free]

And cards aren't the only games where bluffing is a thing.

I've not yet played a game where a lot of the players had nuclear weapons up their sleeves.

 

[WolfEyes]

I remember many news stories about privately run boot camps in South Dakota for troubled teens. Very frightening and scarring, yes ... I hope boot camps are still banned there. South Dakota - Minnesota's weird uncle.

My brothers were sent to GCMA. Gulf Coast Military Academy.

They were sent before Camille hit. My dad had to fly down there from Louisiana to get them before Camille hit. And I will never forget what the Gulf Coast looked like still when we took them back. I will never forget seeing what was left of the nice hotel we used to stay in. A single toilet hanging from the pipes about 3 stories up.

I keep meaning to remind you most of my childhood was in Louisiana. I barely remember my birth parents.

ETA: If I remember right the hotel was the Edgewater.

 

[Sid]

I've not yet played a game where a lot of the players had nuclear weapons up their sleeves.

Even if only a quarter of their missiles still actually launches due to maintenance problems, the whole civilization will go down by their mushroom poisioning.

 

[WolfEyes]

The real story of Ender's Game.

I don't get the connection you're making. I know what it's about, I just never saw the whole movie or read the book. I was never much of an Orson Scott Card fan.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

The German Tank Museum has a series of interesting videos on Youtube, explaining the tanks being used in the Red Army as well Ukrainian Army.

Ukraine and Russia are using more or less the same range of tanks, which are based on a Soviet design and doctrine. The Soviet doctrine is vastly different from the Western doctrine.

Western tank designs are build to last as long as possible in a fight, to be easily maintainable and repairable even in the field, to have superior firepower and protect the lifes of its crew well. As a result Western tanks are quite costly and build like a moving fortress.

Soviet tanks are build with a different mindset - the Soviets viewed their tanks as throwaway weapon. For the soviets not the tank itself was the important thing, but the group of tanks. As a result of this their tanks are technoligically easier, more lightweight and smaller. In times of the USSR the soldiers manning these tanks were recruited after height, nobody taller than 1.60m.

For the Soviets their doctrine was that it isn't so much important that one tank is superior, but that the own group of tanks will last long enough. So even if a Western tank combats for Tsomethingsomething which are each on its own technologically worse, in the end if the battle takes long enough the Soviet tanks will remain victorious. And if a tank gets stuck it just will be abandoned, and the next wave of the Red Army will get it back. This is more or less the foundation of the Soviet tank doctrine, mass production of performing well enough tanks, which was adopted by Russia as well.

So since Ukraine as well as Russia as opponents are equipped with the same range of tanks, technological differences become irrelevant. What's more important is training, personnel and morale of the own troops.

Also the Red Army was trained for tank battles in great plains like in Northern Germany. Battling against groups of other thanks. In Ukraine they are battling against mostly peasants with anti tank weapons, which is a type of fight most probably never were trained for before.

 

[bubblesort]

Fucking hell... Russia is pushing way farther West in Ukraine than I expected them to. This makes no sense. I'm not even going to try to predict what Putin is going to do again. For all we know, he might try to invade everybody in the 3 seas initiative. Why not? If you're going to stretch your military this thin, you might as well go all the way and try to invade the whole world, right?

 

[Dakota Tebaldi]

I don't get the connection you're making. I know what it's about, I just never saw the whole movie or read the book. I was never much of an Orson Scott Card fan.

Just that the story is about a military academy for little kids.

It's also....not a great story. So you didn't miss anything, lol.

 

[danielravennest]

Vladimir Putin reportedly fires eight generals

Eight generals reportedly fired by Vladimir Putin

euroweeklynews.com

Were they fired out a window?

 

[danielravennest]

Sure it could be the case that Russia's military command is just actually that stupid and its field force really is just that overhyped and unfit for purpose....but...from my idiot-on-the-internet POV it kinda almost looks like somebody somewhere has been sandbagging Russia's whole program. Maybe several somebodies.

Given the way the tires literally fell off the Russian vehicles, my assumption is the endemic corruption in Russia has starved their military of funding, so stuff only half works. Russia also didn't entirely eliminate leaded gasoline until 2003 (they started in the 80's). So the older generations are suffering from lead poisoning, which makes you aggressive and stupid, while the young conscripts are not. The young also grew up with Internet/smartphones and have a wider point of view. So they aren't as willing to fight and die.

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

I don't get the connection you're making. I know what it's about, I just never saw the whole movie or read the book. I was never much of an Orson Scott Card fan.

The short story did it best. It's all about child soldiers and wartime atrocities.

 

[Chin Rey]

...
Russia also didn't entirely eliminate leaded gasoline until 2003 (they started in the 80's). So the older generations are suffering from lead poisoning, which makes you aggressive and stupid
...

Saves them a lot of money then. Think of how much American and English politician have to spend on cocaine to acheive the same result.

 

[WolfEyes]

The short story did it best. It's all about child soldiers and wartime atrocities.

That's not what I was talking about. Sorry. Maybe Kurt Russell as Soldier is better. Except he was human in the end. My brothers never were.

 

[WolfEyes]

Two Ukrainians whose family hid someone during the Holocaust say they've found refuge in Israel because the survivor's granddaughter took them in (msn.com)