The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

[Myradyl Muse]

EUROPE SAYS (@europesays.bsky.social)

UK to continue to supply intelligence to Ukraine after US cutoff | Ukraine https://www.europesays.com/1893195/ Britain will continue to supply intelligence to Ukraine, though the more limited capabilities on offer from London and…

bsky.app

I was scratching my head when it was earlier reported that US had ordered UK to give no more intel reports. Umm, who are they to order around another sovereign nation? Boggles the mind. Glad to see this updated info.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

I was scratching my head when it was earlier reported that US had ordered UK to give no more intel reports. Umm, who are they to order around another sovereign nation? Boggles the mind. Glad to see this updated info.

Well to be precise: the US did not forbid the UK to share intelligence, which is UK made alone.

The US forbid the UK to share US made intelligence.

BTW France now wants to share more intelligence with Ukraine.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I was scratching my head when it was earlier reported that US had ordered UK to give no more intel reports. Umm, who are they to order around another sovereign nation? Boggles the mind. Glad to see this updated info.

As I understand it, the US and the UK have a long-standing intelligence-sharing programme. The US have told the UK not share information provided by the US with Ukraine. They can't, of course, tell the UK what to do with information the UK has gathered with its own resources, and the UK has made it clear we'll continue to share that with Ukraine.

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-plans-revoke-legal-status-ukrainians-who-fled-us-sources-say-2025-03-06

A perfect storm of fuck this.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

America went from biggest supporter of Ukraine to enemy of Ukraine and collaborator of Russia with Trump, period.

Trump even had the assholery openly to confirm what Russia has always said that this is a proxy war.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Eutelstat is stepping into the gap of Starlink leaves, meaning Eutelsat could deliver the same communication services Starlink did. 2000 Eutelsat dishes could be delivered on short notice to Ukraine, the rest to replace the 40.000 Starlink ones will take a few months, but not years.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/shares-of-starlinks-european-competitor-have-tripled-ceo-says-it-can-do-the-job-in-ukraine-f5e4e1ac

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Trump had a change of heart and is now considering larce-scale sanctions and tariffs on Russia, until a ceasefire agreement has been reached.

Trump 'strongly considering' large-scale sanctions and tariffs on Russia

The president has reversed US policy and says he trusts Putin and finds dealing with Ukraine difficult.

www.bbc.com

 

[Katheryne Helendale]

Trump had a change of heart and is now considering larce-scale sanctions and tariffs on Russia, until a ceasefire agreement has been reached.

Trump 'strongly considering' large-scale sanctions and tariffs on Russia

The president has reversed US policy and says he trusts Putin and finds dealing with Ukraine difficult.

www.bbc.com

Trump's master won't be too pleased with that. Trump would do well to stay away from high windows.

 

[Soen Eber]

Trump's master won't be too pleased with that. Trump would do well to stay away from high windows.

An empty gesture. Foreign policy experts know that kind of leverage takes years, decades even to change anything, and the people around him have people around them that know that. And even then it doesn't change policy: it merely destroys economies because the leadership is so intractable.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Interesting article in The Times about how NATO and Europe in general, and the UK in particular, are responding to the new political, military and diplomatic environment.

Trump chaos derails leader after leader, but Keir Starmer rides on

Nobody knows what the US will do next, but Starmer is riding the wave better than most. A deal to restore US aid could be agreed this week

www.thetimes.com

Evernote Link

Five issues are concerning chiefs at GCHQ in Cheltenham and MI6. The first is operational concerns that the US could cut off access to key information on a whim. “There’s a warning here that this administration is willing to use intelligence and turning it on, turning it off as a policy tool,” Sedwill said. Second, there is a worry that US intelligence gathering will become politicised, with purges of anti-Trump officials already under way in the CIA and FBI.

Third, those running assets in Russia, China and elsewhere are concerned about source protection amid fears information could be shared with Russia. Linked to this is the prospect that cost-cutting approach to espionage as Elon Musk has to the new Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), which is leading to thousands of federal jobs and some agencies being axed, could lead a disgruntled official with a high security clearance leaking to our enemies. They point out that three of the biggest security breaches in recent years — the cases of Aldrich Ames, Robert Hanssen and Edward Snowden, who all sold secrets to Moscow — came from within the US intelligence community.

The former minister said: “There is deep concern that they’re firing so many people that it won’t be very long before one of those people decides that the way to pay off the mortgage and keep the kids in college is to phone up Uncle Yuri and say, ‘Can I have a couple of hundred K, please?’ They’ve turned the whole place into a target-rich environment for foreign espionage.”

The final concern is transactional — the fear that the US will demand more money from its Five Eyes partners or insist that they justify themselves in terms of their input into the partnership. Insiders say the US intelligence budget — about $100 billion — is ten times the size of the other Five Eyes countries combined. GCHQ is a major contributor to the global network of signals intelligence listening stations.

“Value is measured very differently in intelligence,” a security source said. “A lot of the best intelligence comes from a single source, not because you spend the most money. Within the intelligence communities across the Five Eyes, they regularly sit down and try and figure out whether or not they’re doing enough to generate value in the eyes of the Americans. And that was before Trump’s second term. There’s a lot of concerns about that.”

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

America will immediately give Ukraine military aid again as it is now ready for a 30 day ceasefire. Moscow's agreement is pending.

U.S. will immediately resume military aid as Ukraine says it is open to 30-day ceasefire

The Trump administration said Tuesday that it would immediately lift its suspension of military aid to Ukraine and its intelligence sharing with Kyiv.

www.pbs.org

 

[Soen Eber]

I've read that the White House (not just Trump) wants to pivot away from Europe towards Asia, in readiness for a 2027 or 2028 invasion of Taiwan. This (downgrading Ukraine involvement) is also part of a plan to discipline Europe for not building up their defenses.

But this is Tuesday.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

I've read that the White House (not just Trump) wants to pivot away from Europe towards Asia, in readiness for a 2027 or 2028 invasion of Taiwan. This (downgrading Ukraine involvement) is also part of a plan to discipline Europe for not building up their defenses.

The pivot towards Asia is not new, and is least underway since the early 2010s.

 

[Soen Eber]

The pivot towards Asia is not new, and is least underway since the early 2010s.

An orderly pivot, yes. But he wishes to replace it with a modern-day Athenian League: tribute, coercion, bribery, acting to break America as a trustworthy ally, either intentionally or unintentionally. Under Trump we've betrayed the Afghans and the Kurds, and if he does return to supporting Ukraine it is only because his hand is being forced by others in his party.

Europe "betrayed" America by not fully improving their military stature to where he wants, and he wants revenge (as always). The White house wants to accelerate the pivot to the point where we are no longer "trustworthy", and the rest of the world will "make their peace" with Russia and with China, freedom be damned.

Not exactly a revelation to me, but now I have things others have said to point at for confirmation.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Europe "betrayed" America by not fully improving their military stature to where he wants, and he wants revenge (as always). The White house wants to accelerate the pivot to the point where we are no longer "trustworthy", and the rest of the world will "make their peace" with Russia and with China, freedom be damned.

Well most NATO countries increased to 2% GDP as result of the Ukraine war. 2% is also the number which was agreed upon within NATO, and Trump during his 1st term always demanded to be met.

But now he's at 5%, just like a good little mafia bully would act.

 

[Soen Eber]

Well most NATO countries increased to 2% GDP as result of the Ukraine war. 2% is also the number which was agreed upon within NATO, and Trump during his 1st term always demanded to be met.

But now he's at 5%, just like a good little mafia bully would act.

I would be fascinated to see San Marino's or Vatican Cities 5% NATO contribution. What, a dozen crossbowmen and halberdier tour guides seconded to the Duchey of Grand Fenwick, with MP 5 SMGs hidden under their cloaks?

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Since both states are no member of NATO we will never going to witness that possible outcome.

 

[detrius]

Since both states are no member of NATO we will never going to witness that possible outcome.

Soen is still allowed to find the idea fascinating.

I'm sure they're already aware of the improbability of it happening, considering they explicitly mentioned the fictitious Duchy of Grand Fenwick.

I'm surprised you didn't also point out that it's not a real country.

 

[Soen Eber]

Soen is still allowed to find the idea fascinating.

I'm sure they're already aware of the improbability of it happening, considering they explicitly mentioned the fictitious Duchy of Grand Fenwick.

I'm surprised you didn't also point out that it's not a real country.

Sometimes absurdity is the only refuge from insanity.