The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Why Ukraine is the best place in the world to be a farmer - lots of black soil - and why this would be one problem to be solved when joining the EU, because it would kick many EU farmers out of business. The Ukraine simply can produce much cheaper than other countries due to having good climate and black soil.

 

[Free]

Partisans 'Kill 24 Russian Soldiers with Poisoned Treats'

Ordnance is not the only way Ukrainians have been eliminating Russian occupation troops. A spate of poisonings by suspected partisans has taken its toll on Moscow’s forces as well.

www.kyivpost.com

Twenty-four Russian troops were killed after being given poison-laced food by “two nice girls” at a military checkpoint in Simferopol, Crimea, according to reports.

Unverified reports on Russian media channels said two partisans approached the soldiers with vodka, fish, sausage, bread, and cheese.

“They told the guards that they wanted to thank our boys for everything, for protecting them,” a source told the Telegram channel Kremlin Snuffbox, which posted the information on Dec. 1.

“The guys took vodka and food, drank with their colleagues, and ate. And many were poisoned.”

Doesn't sound like the meal turned out well.

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

That has total WWII resistance vibes. Plenty of "oh yes, when I was a little girl I used to lure Nazi soldiers into the woods and kill them" energy.

 

[Katheryne Helendale]

Doesn't sound like the meal turned out well.

Are you kidding? It was to die for.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

The GOP is blocking right now new funding of Ukraine in Washington as well Israel. If unresolved, Ukraine will run out of ressources to run the war end of the year.

The bill faltered due to an unrelated immigration policy dispute.

Republicans Block Aid to Ukraine, Jeopardizing Its Fight Against Russia

The vote spotlighted waning support in Congress for backing Ukraine in the war, and left the fate of the effort uncertain.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Soen Eber]

The GOP is blocking right now new funding of Ukraine in Washington as well Israel. If unresolved, Ukraine will run out of ressources to run the war end of the year.

The bill faltered due to an unrelated immigration policy dispute.

Republicans Block Aid to Ukraine, Jeopardizing Its Fight Against Russia

The vote spotlighted waning support in Congress for backing Ukraine in the war, and left the fate of the effort uncertain.

www.nytimes.com

While support may be waning in some quarters, this is merely an established Republican tactic of blocking important, even critical legislation to get something they want. It is a naked power play to extract concessions. I'm sure others can provide examples of other legislation that has been held up similarly.

If aid truly is blocked, pressure will grow on the Republicans to resolve this. It's essentially a game of chicken.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

I do agree that this is power play, like also when experiencing the xth "government shutdown", to appease the own voter base. Then before something bad happens, both sides do agree to a shitty compromise, and the world goes on.

But it still will be interesting to watch how this turns out, because the willingnes to support Ukraine is running down the drain slowly in many countries right now.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

The next presidential election in Russia will be held at March 17, 2024. Putin will run for it, and has so far no serious competitors, probably he worked hard to ensure this. If Putin wins, he will be longer in power than Stalin was.

Russia to hold presidential election on March 17, 2024

Russia's upper house of parliament voted on Thursday to set the date for Russia's presidential election for March 17, 2024.

www.reuters.com

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Selenskyi is visiting Argentina right now, and met there with the newly elected president Javier Milei. Milei is a glowing supporter of Ukraine, and Selenskyi thanked him for that. Additionally he was able to met several South American head of states, too.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Asslickers of Viktor Orban will be meeting with members of the shit hole party, so GOP, in Washnigton to push for an end of the UD aid to Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/10/hungary-viktor-orban-republicans-ukraine-aid

 

[Soen Eber]

I can't source this because I forgot where I got it from - I think a YouTube news vid - but the aid the U.S. is sending is only 5% of our total military budget, and most of the spending on this goes to U.S. companies and American workers.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Ukraine is helding "peace formula meetings", whatever this should be. Must be something different to peace talks.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Putin doing his yearly AMA session...

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Putin will hate this: Finland, which recently became a NATO member, also has signed a direct defence agreement with the USA. The agreement gives the US Army unhindered access to a lot of Finland's military bases, ports and infrastructure.

Also the storage of military equipment and ammunition is allowed.

https://www.reuters.com/world/finland-sign-defence-pact-with-us-2023-12-14/

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

50 bn € of aid blocked due to him.

 

[Soen Eber]

50 bn € of aid blocked due to him.

Isn't a representative form of government a requirement for EU membership?

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Well yes, Orban is the elected prime minister of Hungary. The issue is that before the Ukraine war started, there were two countries in the EU which had very right wing tendencies already, and therefore got less money from the EU, namely Poland and Hungary.

Poland has had a few weeks ago a new election with the right wing populist government now gone. The new prime minister of Poland is Donald Tusk. But in Hungary Orban is still prime minister.

The stance from the EU towards Poland changed with the Ukraine war, because Poland was very helpful and generous to the refugees. But Orban on the other hand just continues his own thing.

And decision making in the EU still is that all countries have to approve; if one country vetoes this is valid. So Orban vetoed here and gambles now: he only will approve if the EU in return will deliver all frozen money to Hungary. It's the same what Erdogan did with the new NATO applicants: if one country disagrees it is not happening.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

How Putin’s Right-Hand Man Took Out Prigozhin (paywall bypassed)

The assassination of the warlord was two months in the making and approved by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s oldest ally and confidant, an ex-spy named Nikolai Patrushev, according to Western intelligence officials and a former Russian intelligence officer. The role of Patrushev as the driver of the plan to kill Prigozhin hasn’t been previously reported.
The Kremlin has denied involvement in Prigozhin’s death, and Putin offered the closest thing to an official explanation for the plane’s fiery crash, suggesting a hand grenade had detonated onboard.
None of that was true.
Hours after the incident, a European involved in intelligence gathering who maintained a backchannel of communication with the Kremlin and saw news of the crash asked an official there what had happened.
“He had to be removed,” the Kremlin official responded without hesitation.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

This here is an in depth analysis why the Ukrainian offensive this year has failed, done by Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Army on the official Youtube channel of the Austrian Army.

Reisner draws a grim picture: the war in Ukraine is for him a proxy war, which the Russians begun but now the USA are leading and Ukraine has not much to say. And if Ukraine can decide something by themselves, they do it wrong most of the time.

For example, when Ukraine planned the offensive, America strongly suggested to only attack one location to build a bridgehead, but Ukraine went instead for attacking three locations at the same time, which given the limited ressources failed.

Also Reisner states that the West underestimated Russia's military production. Russia is still producing all required weapon systems, even at a higher rate before the war started. Ukraine instead depends on Western weapon and ammunition deliveries.

He thinks that Russia will try to attack again this winter Ukrainian civil infrastructure, to make the people suffer. In the last winter about 50-60% of it was destroyed, around 15-20% so far repaired. Also Ukraine has a growing demographic problem: it is running out of soldiers. And also the training on certain Western weapon systems took more time than some optimists thought. On top of that Ukraine never got the amount of weapons and ammunition necessary by the West to run a succesful offensive.


My thoughts about this at the moment: Russia has got all the time of the world right now while Ukraine not. Probably Russia will wait until the next presidential election in America in 2024 is over. Latest then probably it will end at the negotiation table if America pulls its support under a GOP president like Trump, if not sooner.

And probably it will end up like in Korea: there will be no peace treaty, and Russia will keep Crimea, Donbass and the occupied parts of southern Ukraine. And if much time passes, Russia could probably grab even more land.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

Putin’s Party Forms Private Army, the PMC Española

The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine reports that United russia political party, led by Putin, has established its own private military force known as the PMC Española.

Previously associated with the East volunteer unit, comprised of russian football hooligans, this now-termed terrorist group has been under the control of Putin’s party members since 2023. The organization transitioned to the status of a private military company, with United russia party funding active recruitment efforts.

The PMC Española welcomes various individuals, including football ultras, russian radicals, supporters of Nazi ideology, and civilians from economically distressed regions of the russian federation and temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. The latter group is utilized in assaults to solidify the unit’s combat status.