The 2024 U.S. Presidential race

[Imnotgoing Sideways]

It's almost like some people are not intellectually capable of participating in an election.

 

[Free]

Elon Musk's Super PAC Is Reportedly Doing a Terrible Job Running Trump’s Voter Turnout Program

Musk's full-throated support for Trump may turn out to be a gift to Democrats.

gizmodo.com

Elon Musk has vowed to help Donald Trump secure a second presidency. Not only has he turned the platform formerly known as Twitter into a 24/7 MAGA propaganda apparatus, but he’s also committed huge amounts of cash to a political action group that is now serving as Trump’s primary canvassing machine. America PAC, which was created by Musk and continues to be funded by him, is said to be leading Trump’s door-knocking operations in key battleground states. Yet while Trump has effectively handed Musk the reins of his campaign, criticism is growing about how Musk’s group is handling that responsibility.

 

[Noodles]

So here is a dumb thought, please tell me it's dumb.

As proven, very, very often, many of the accusations by the Republican Party turn out to be projection of their own plans and problems.

In 2020, there was a huge push of the idea that, Biden was electable, Harris was not, so Biden was running, and would immediately step down as President once he won, making Harris the new President. A Trojan horse candidate so to speak.

Now let's look at Trump, an obvious fucking con man idiot. Even the Republicans can see this. But, he has the massive following from the Idiot Cult. Trump just wants to keep his own ass out of jail, he never wanted to be President in 2016 in the first place.

Vancenthe other hand, is a weirdo loser. Vance could never win.

But Vance is a "true believer" in the whole, Regresionist Authoritarian Project 2025 bull shit.

So now we have Trump/Vance, on the idea of, Trump wins riding the Idiot Cult, Trump steps aside for Vance, who has promised him a pardon etc (if he actually does it, who the hell knows, Trump is a gullible follower dumbass).

 

[Khamon]

Trump and Vance will admit no responsibility for letting Musk and others operate the White House and Executive Branch. Harris and Walz will. I, for one, am less afraid of the latter's corporate wealth protection team.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

So here is a dumb thought, please tell me it's dumb.

As proven, very, very often, many of the accusations by the Republican Party turn out to be projection of their own plans and problems.

In 2020, there was a huge push of the idea that, Biden was electable, Harris was not, so Biden was running, and would immediately step down as President once he won, making Harris the new President. A Trojan horse candidate so to speak.

Now let's look at Trump, an obvious fucking con man idiot. Even the Republicans can see this. But, he has the massive following from the Idiot Cult. Trump just wants to keep his own ass out of jail, he never wanted to be President in 2016 in the first place.

Vancenthe other hand, is a weirdo loser. Vance could never win.

But Vance is a "true believer" in the whole, Regresionist Authoritarian Project 2025 bull shit.

So now we have Trump/Vance, on the idea of, Trump wins riding the Idiot Cult, Trump steps aside for Vance, who has promised him a pardon etc (if he actually does it, who the hell knows, Trump is a gullible follower dumbass).

The only flaw in your thinking is that Trump would never step down of his own free will. Trump still isn't really one of the GOP insiders for such plans, he's just a very useful populist with a huge following for them to ride in on his coat tails. They don't really control him to this extent by far.

 

[Free]

So here is a dumb thought, please tell me it's dumb.

Maybe. But only a little.

We know Trumps sons were highly involved with selecting Vance. And it seems a large part of their reasoning was the appeal that he could open up access to billionaire Peter Thiel, Vance's "mentor," and a potential funding/revenue source (it's always the grift with them). Thiel is quite likely backing Project 2025, so he might secretly desire to see a Vance presidency ride in over Trump.

But keep in mind Trump is still Trump, and he does nothing unless it promotes and secures Trump at the top. Vance side-sliding into the Oval Office doesn't accomplish that.

 

[Beebo Brink]

Trump is vain and would not willingly give up power and prestige. But I could see Trump opting out of doing any actual work, letting the daily responsibilities devolve to Vance, while Trump played golf.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

Wait. Menstrual surveillance!?

 

[WolfEyes]

assTrumpet is a puppet. Very much a Pinocchio.

 

[WolfEyes]

Wait. Menstrual surveillance!?

He makes Vlad the Impaler look like a saint.

 

[Dirran]

If you look at democracies that use FPTP—which are actually quite rare—you’ll find they all tend to show the same divisiveness, take no prisoners campaigning, fantasy politics and very high polarisation. They also have a marked tendency towards alienated and poorly informed electorates, very powerful chief executives and relatively weak legislatures. The explanation cannot be that there’s something in the water.

Betting the country’s future on First Past the Post is like gambling with “a random number generator”.

 

[Jopsy Pendragon]

Trump is vain and would not willingly give up power and prestige. But I could see Trump opting out of doing any actual work, letting the daily responsibilities devolve to Vance, while Trump played golf.

Vance will be the new Jared Kushner. A giant hat-rack of discarded responsibilities with zero competence, progress, or accountability.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

As far as I can see, Trump views "states' rights" as a get-out. He realises that his extreme pro-life Evangelical supporters are in a minority when it comes to abortion, as is evidenced by the way that even solid Republican states have passed constitutional amendments protecting abortion rights whenever it's come to a popular vote. And I'm sure that, if he could, he'd disavow these Evangelicals because their hostility to abortion is an electoral liability.

However, he can't afford to do that, because, while they're a minority nationally, they're also a large and important part of his support (and income) base and he can't afford to alienate them.

So by saying "It's a matter for the individual states to decide, not the federal government," he seeks to wash his hands of the problem. "Go and yell at your Governor about it, not me."

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Betting the country’s future on First Past the Post is like gambling with “a random number generator”.

Yes, but ... France, Germany, Austria and Italy all have proportional representation of one sort or another, but nevertheless, at least at the moment, the far right are considerably closer to government in those countries (and in Italy are actually in government, of course) than are they in the UK, are they not?

 

[detrius]

Yes, but ... France, Germany, Austria and Italy all have proportional representation of one sort or another, but nevertheless, at least at the moment, the far right are considerably closer to government in those countries (and in Italy are actually in government, of course) than are they in the UK, are they not?

Yes, but that's not the fault of proportional representation.

I don't know enough about the electoral systems of Italy and France to comment on them - but it's a fact that with FPtP, the AfD would now be in charge of three federal states in Germany. Proportional representation is what keeps them in check - it's actually quite easy to prove.

First you have to understand that half of the seats in our parliaments are filled by first-past-the-post voting. Those are called "direktmandate" or "direct mandates". That's pretty much the same way representatives are elected in the UK or America.

But in Germany, the other half of the seats is then filled with so-called "listenmandate" - or "list mandates" - to make the composition of the parliament match the proportional distribution of the votes. So if a party didn't get a single "direktmandat", but 10% of the votes overall, then 10% of the open seats in the parliament are filled with candidates picked from a list that has been provided by the party before the election. That's why the size of our parliaments fluctuates.

So if you want to know what Germany would look like with FPtP, then all you need to do is to look at the "direktmandate".

Here are the results from the recent state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg (I converted the number of seats into percentages):

Saxony	Seats filled by FPtP	List Candidates	Actual % of Seats
CDU	45.00%	23.33%	34.17%
AfD	46.67%	20.00%	33.33%
BSW	0%	25.00%	12.50%
SPD	0%	16.67%	8.33%
Left Party	3.33%	6.67%	5.00%
Green Party	3.33%	8.33%	5.83%
Free Voters	1.67%	0%	0.83%

Source

Thuringia	Seats filled by FPtP	List Candidates	Actual % of Seats
AfD	65.91%	6.82%	36.36%
CDU	25.00%	27.27%	26.14%
BSW	0%	34,09%	17.05%
Left Party	9.09%	18.18%	13.64%
SPD	0%	13.64%	6.82%
Green Party	0%	0%	0%
FDP	0%	0%	0%

Source

Brandenburg	Seats filled by FPtP	List Candidates	Actual % of Seats
SPD	43.18%	29.55%	36.36%
AfD	56.82%	11.36%	34.09%
BSW	0%	31.82%	15.91%
CDU	0%	27.27%	13.64%
Green Party	0%	0%	0%
Left Party	0%	0%	0%
Free Voters	0%	0%	0%

Source

"Seats filled by FPtP" shows you what those state parliaments would look like if our elections worked like they do in the UK or the USA.

So, as you can see, with first-past-the-post voting, the AfD would be the strongest party in Saxony and have an absolute majority in Brandenburg and Thuringia.

But with proportional representation, it's "just" the strongest party in Thuringia and doesn't have an absolute majority anywhere.

ETA: this is where got the data

 

[detrius]

That was also a shit ton of work. I'll get some sleep now.

 

[detrius]

Btw, this is what's going on in Thuringia, where the AfD is the strongest party... but doesn't have an absolute majority (thanks to proportional representation):

Germany: Far-right AfD sparks chaos in state parliament

Classified as "extremist" by the domestic intelligence agency, the anti-immigrant populist Alternative for Germany party in Thuringia is now staging a political scandal that bodes ill for German democracy.

www.dw.com

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I wasn't suggesting that PR causes political polarisation and extremism. I was just suggesting that Dirran is mistaken in their apparent belief that it's some sort of prophylactic against them, or that FPTP somehow encourages them.

To my mind we should be looking at social and economic causes to explain polarisation and extremism, not voting systems.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

 

[Dirran]

Yes, but ... France, Germany, Austria and Italy all have proportional representation of one sort or another, but nevertheless, at least at the moment, the far right are considerably closer to government in those countries (and in Italy are actually in government, of course) than are they in the UK, are they not?

France does not have PR. The national assembly is elected from 577 single member constituencies.

Italy does not have PR. The Italian chamber of deputies is elected by a complex system that guarantees 54% of the seats to the largest party/coalition if they win 40% of the popular vote. The Meloni centre-right coalition reached 43.79%. As with Detrius’ calculations for Brandenberg, Saxony and Thuringia, if the chamber were elected by FPTP the centre-right would have a larger majority.

In countries without PR, far right movements exert influence by having the main party of the right adopt their policies. That is exactly what happened in Australia with the (il)Liberals adopting the immigration and refugee policies of One Nation, and in the UK with the Conservatives adopting Brexit and the same immigration and refugee policies the Liberals had adopted in Australia.