#JAILTOTHECHIEF- Shit Just Got Real

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danielravennest

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There are strange patterns in the economy right now, which have experts scratching their head. It's a topic that Marketplace (an NPR program on finance) has touched on repeatedly this past year. For instance, unemployment is lower than economists thought it could go without triggering inflation. Honestly, this is not stuff I understand, but I get the gist, which is that the usual predictions and indicators of the health of the economy simply aren't working as expected any more. Everyone is in new territory now.
Here's my theory:

Something that happened since the last recession is the "participation rate" has dropped significantly. That's the percentage of the over-18 population who want to work. The "employment population ratio" is the percentage who actually have jobs. The difference between them is unemployment (want jobs, but don't have them). The participation ratio has dropped because more young people are staying in school past age 18, and at the other end people are living longer post-retirement. At the same time, we have more "McJobs" - low paying, part-time, etc. You are still counted as employed if you do *any* paid work during a week, no matter how little. The low-paying and non-working populations can't buy as much stuff. Demand exceeding supply is what drives inflation.

 
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Brenda Archer

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It's an emotional resistance rather than an intellectual fail, but yes, it's almost impenetrable. For those of us who have been marginalized all our lives, cynicism and distrust of the establishment is not a difficult step to take. But the hard core are Americans who are deeply emotionally invested in a system that has worked for them for generations, that they believe they earned, that they consider their birthright, even a God-given benefit of the Chosen Ones (aka White Christians). In order to accept that the system is now working against them requires relinquishing an entire universe of assumptions about how their class achieved its successes. They would trade their status of People Who Deserve Success for that of People Who Are Pawns of the System.
This is a good description of those who are cognitively able and have some education, but are still intransigent. But I’m talking about the semiliterate, partly innumerate people who haven’t read a book since high school and are probably at an educational level we surpassed in ninth grade. Consider the education level of public high school students who are not in a college preparatory track. When I talk to people whose education ended at such a level, they are relying completely on statements made by authority. They don’t understand history, civics, science or math. They can’t explain the theology of their own denominations beyond slogans and a to-do list at a ten year old’s level that passes for morals. I really, really am saying they are too far behind cognitively to understand.

In Piagetian terms, a third of the adult population are at the “concrete” level. They couldn’t follow this conversation, even to disagree with it. Most of them do not have the kind of education or life experience that might compensate for it a bit.

I can’t even get into conversations with these people from “inside” their theological identity because they don’t understand where their religion came from.

A lot of intelligent people deconvert from authoritarian religion, even if they’re not marginalized. Looking back at my own deconversion, the largest motivation after intelligence was abuse, as it is for many women. Ex-Mormon and Ex-Evangelical stories by women are loaded down with abuse and escapes. But men who are still privileged also manage to get out, if they have a certain type of education, especially.

So the intransigence I see looks to me like a form of personality disorder.

But I bring this up because there’s still a narrative on the Left, that if we just try the right way, people can understand. It’s not PC to say some people can’t get it. But I think we ignore this at our peril. They don’t understand why we blame them, and react with simple unfocused anger. I’m not saying we have to be nice to them. I’m saying we have to cut off the demagogues at the head. Their followers won’t.
 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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It's an emotional resistance rather than an intellectual fail, but yes, it's almost impenetrable. For those of us who have been marginalized all our lives, cynicism and distrust of the establishment is not a difficult step to take. But the hard core are Americans who are deeply emotionally invested in a system that has worked for them for generations, that they believe they earned, that they consider their birthright, even a God-given benefit of the Chosen Ones (aka White Christians). In order to accept that the system is now working against them requires relinquishing an entire universe of assumptions about how their class achieved its successes. They would trade their status of People Who Deserve Success for that of People Who Are Pawns of the System.
Here's my take on it: the USA have always been very much market liberal, but in the past also willing to draw red lines if something failed, like 1929 after the stock exchange crash. This will has now more or less went out of the window, it's gone.

In the past - after WWII - the system worked for quite many due to two facts: the Sputnik shock and the USSR. When the Sputnik shock happened, this really was like an earthquake and there was a political will there to close that gap. Meaning that better not to waste any potential at all.

The other was the USSR - as long as it existed there was always the need more or less there to demonstrate that life in capitalism is indeed better than in communism, and to be able to achieve that goal a big enough middle class was deemed necessary. It was a longer period of time where capitalism with its goals more or less was in sync with the nation's ones, where also tons of stuff was invented and therefore the domestic market unsaturated as well, and so they had a somewhat fruitful symbiosis where corporations made profits, but also were willing to give a share to the working class.

The beginning of the end was the election of Ronald Reagan; and when the USSR dissolved there was also no need any longer to demonstrate that living in capitalism is indeed better than in communism, so slowly but steadily politics changed. And companies became much more greedy, powerful and influential on politics than ever before in the long run.

And jobs got exported to the People's Republic of China, a lot. All were laughing about it, all saw them as some kind of backwater cheap work force like many did with Japan at the beginning of the 70s. We all know what how Japan prospered back then already, buying one American car company after the other and giving American car brands and entertainment equipment brands a run for the money. So basically the same situation like there is now with China - American's exported shit loads of jobs to China, and China exported goods to America, and lent America lots lots lots of money. Chimerica was born, and for a while this worked well enough, although the middle class was already vanishing a lot.

But China, much like Japan, does not want to be the cheap workbench of the world any longer, they want leadership and wealth for their own people as well. And in some areas of technology this already has happened, like 5G equipment where telecommunications companies are telling you this: yes, we can use equipment aside Huawei, but it gives less bang for the buck and has much longer delivery times. Some even think it's impossible to implement a 5G network without some stuff from Huawei at least.

What we are witnessing right now as result of Trump's trade with China is the technological breakup; China wants finally once and for all to become technologically independant from the West, and I am pretty sure that they are going to reach this goal quite fast.

The important difference though between Japan and China is size and population; Japan has only around 10% of China's population. Quite much more important though Japan is an ally of America, because it's security depends largely on the US Armed Forces. China on the other hand views itself as a global power back on its rightful way they had before 1850, and bows down to nobody which is quite a different approach.

Is exporting jobs a problem? Well it depends on the jobs created to replace them in the exporting country. If only low level jobs are created in masses to replace them, while rents, costs of living and the rest stays as it is then: yes, it is a problem. This is exactly what's been happening in America for many, but not for all.

The other issue is that productivity in all types of industry always increased over the last decades, meaning even if we would not export jobs, 20 years from now on probably we do only need 60% of the staff to produce the same stuff like today or even more. This is a problem all nations are facing, and no good answer has been found yet to it. One approach is the idea of the universal basic income.

And what we've got today in America, like in many other nations is "divide et impera"; the still somewhat wealthier people who already do feel and fear their decline are incited against the poor, homeless and illegal immegrants to divert their attention from the real reasons what's being wrong in the country. It's a pattern you can view all over the globe right now.

So for a large part that the system worked to the favor of many Americans in the past this is being owed due to the existance of the USSR back then; which now is gone. What still somewhat is stabilizing the system is the fact that the Fed has been pumping like crazy into the financial industry and rest, so making money artificially less valuable than it is - interestingly something Trump also accuses China over. The ECB has been doing the same since years, we are in the epoch of money wars and the big bang of it was 2008. If the Fed is going to stop this influx of money some day we are most likely going to witness the explosion of an economic nuclear bomb, if not really good prepared. Many federal banks around the globe have already begun to buy domestic company shares, which is quite ironic because due to that the capitalism is nationalising companies in the long run if they should get the majority of some companies, which has always been a primary goal of communism: nationalising companies, but at large scale.

By the way the reason why there is no competition with China like it was back then with the USSR is due to the fact that China is in reality today a country with state capitalism in place despite being official still communism, which it is not, and due to the exported jobs America is quite dependant on China, which was also not the case with the USSR. Something like the iPhone was never produced in the USSR, but it is in China. That's the difference, the trade with China is enormous and with the USSR it was not. China is far too big to be ignored by American companies as a market for all types of services and goods.

This is what is going to make the breakup really hurtful for both sides, but in the long run America will be hurt much more than China will. When Trump for example lowered some taxes, many Chinese companies did not lower their prices for example. But much more impactful is that China is pursuing a scorched-earth policy against its own domestic companies. So you made business with an American company but now you are in trouble? Good luck with that, buddy! So this means that those Chinese companies are looking for alternative sources for the supplies/goods/services they do need, and once they've found them don't expect them to come back easily to American companies as long as Trump is in the office. Even after that it is unlikely to happen, and in parallel lots of money is being invested in key technology the government wants to become independent, like e.g. the manufacturing of DRAM.

And we are right now in the breaking up phase of Chimerica, it will never be the same again after it, even if Trump makes a good trade deal with them due to reasons only a non yet discovered deity might know - because China is now on the breakup path and will walk it till the bitter end.
 
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Kara Spengler

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Someone should start the rumor that 'Qanon' was in it giving some kind of a prescient message, and the 'Deep State' cut them. 🤣
I bet they'd buy it.
We should start a contest to find the craziest conspiracy theory that his tribe will agree with. Bonus points if they put down donnie in the process of doing so.
 

Argent Stonecutter

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We should start a contest to find the craziest conspiracy theory that his tribe will agree with. Bonus points if they put down donnie in the process of doing so.
The world ended in 1997 as calculated by Bishop Usher 6000 years after creation. We are living in a simulation created by John Lilly and Robert Anton Wilson using the secret Berkeley supercomputers at the US weapons labs.
 

Kamilah Hauptmann

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We should start a contest to find the craziest conspiracy theory that his tribe will agree with. Bonus points if they put down donnie in the process of doing so.
This sounds like the mindshare version of Russian roulette with a suicide bomber vest.
 
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Kara Spengler

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The world ended in 1997 as calculated by Bishop Usher 6000 years after creation. We are living in a simulation created by John Lilly and Robert Anton Wilson using the secret Berkeley supercomputers at the US weapons labs.
Do not forget the orbital mind control lasers developed by the Illuminati and Ronnie Raygun (that pinko leftist)!
 
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Aribeth Zelin

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Fake news! Fake news! :)

I am guessing she knows but economies do not turn around overnight either. At first he was running on Obama's economy and it is only now that his decisions are affecting things. Although when people vote they are not thinking that. So the Ds have an uphill battle in 2020 (or 2024 if they manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again).
She does. Though she does joke about how she can't hate him completely because she sort of made some good money when he said something stupid that effected GM stock, she's too old school progressive to like him.

Now, if she'd stop assuming that people my age and younger are as bothered by 'Socialism' as her generation and Boomers are.
 
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Romana

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She does. Though she does joke about how she can't hate him completely because she sort of made some good money when he said something stupid that effected GM stock, she's too old school progressive to like him.

Now, if she'd stop assuming that people my age and younger are as bothered by 'Socialism' as her generation and Boomers are.
What Boomers are those?
 

Romana

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The ones who scream "Down With Communism!" while in line at the bank to cash their Social Security check.
Trumpet Boomers. A distinct subspecies.
Like all Trumpets, they would have you believe that they are the real thing and the only ones that count. They're not, of course, but sometimes I envy the Trumpets the ability they have to live in their own bubble. Like their Dear Leader. Nothing touches him or them, and if it does, they blame it on the Democrats, or yes, Socialists, which they're working hard to convince everyone is the same thing, because ZOMG111!!1! SOCIALISM BAD DURR DURR DURR !!!11! And that's far from being restricted to older Trumpets. I've seen a lot of self-proclaimed "proud young deplorables" toeing the same party line. Some may be bots, or paid trolls, but they can't all be.
 
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Clara D.

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The ones who scream "Down With Communism!" while in line at the bank to cash their Social Security check.
Trumpet Boomers. A distinct subspecies.
Like all Trumpets, they would have you believe that they are the real thing and the only ones that count. They're not, of course, but sometimes I envy the Trumpets the ability they have to live in their own bubble. Like their Dear Leader. Nothing touches him or them, and if it does, they blame it on the Democrats, or yes, Socialists, which they're working hard to convince everyone is the same thing, because ZOMG111!!1! SOCIALISM BAD DURR DURR DURR !!!11! And that's far from being restricted to older Trumpets. I've seen a lot of self-proclaimed "proud young deplorables" toeing the same party line. Some may be bots, or paid trolls, but they can't all be.
Their definition of socialism apparently doesn't include Federal subsidies.

And I've gone a couple of rounds with ones I though were bots at first. Not having a very good grasp of written English is part of their charm, to the point where I'm more suspicious of the well-spoken ones being the bots.
 
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Sredni Eel

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I'm convinced Trump is manipulating the stock market so it stays at an inflated and unsustainable high. A recession is a couple of months overdue, based on historical data and patterns of recession. They occur roughly every ten years like clockwork. The fact is, as soon as Trump thinks he's about to lose his job, he'll have his "friends" sell off, cause the market to tank, and create the worst recession on record, which will be blamed on Democrats.

Mark my words.
 

Innula Zenovka

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The ones who scream "Down With Communism!" while in line at the bank to cash their Social Security check.
Does the US government still use paper cheques to make social security (or any other) payments?

Serious question, because HMG hasn't used cheques for years -- the assumption is that everyone should have a bank account, and you're expected to open one if you hope to receive government payments of any sort.

If for some reason you can't, they'll give you a pre-paid debit card you can use to withdraw your entitlement from various outlets, but that's very much the contingency plan if all else fails.
 

Beebo Brink

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This is a good description of those who are cognitively able and have some education, but are still intransigent. But I’m talking about the semiliterate, partly innumerate people...
Ah, got it. Yeah, I think I shy away from acknowledging that segment out of a misplaced sense of tact. It's not considered seemly to view oneself as smarter than other people, so I work hard to avoid that perspective. All the more so because I've been called out for using "big words" all my life, since I was literally a child, and it's made me self-conscious about being a literate person.

I'm related to people who fit that "semi-literate" group, and our disparities in education/intellect are partly responsible for our estrangement. I'm aghast at their prosperity gospel evangelicalism and Trumper sensibilities (I don't know for sure that they are MAGATs, because I haven't spoken to them in years, but I'm certain their Obama-is-a-Muslim views were a gateway drug to Trump). And you're right, they would be incapable of an informed debate. It's more than not having the facts, they also lack a basic comprehension of just about everything that provides a context around facts. I don't know if they're stupid, but they are incurious about anything beyond their small town.

Here in my poor West Virginia neighborhood, I'm surrounded with people of limited abilities: poor nutrition, lack of education, surplus of alcohol and drugs, scrabbling to make rent; I can't see them grasping the nuances of politics, even if they cared. On the other hand, few of these people vote, so I'm not sure they have any bearing on what is happening.
 

Spirits Rising

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Does the US government still use paper cheques to make social security (or any other) payments?

Serious question, because HMG hasn't used cheques for years -- the assumption is that everyone should have a bank account, and you're expected to open one if you hope to receive government payments of any sort.

If for some reason you can't, they'll give you a pre-paid debit card you can use to withdraw your entitlement from various outlets, but that's very much the contingency plan if all else fails.
Last I checked, no they do not still issue paper checks and expect to be able to direct deposit. The system is quite similar here.
 
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Argent Stonecutter

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All the more so because I've been called out for using "big words" all my life, since I was literally a child, and it's made me self-conscious about being a literate person.
:grouphug:

That's awful. Feel free to throw all the big words you want here. We'll take the hits.
 
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