How COVID-19 is affecting society

Innula Zenovka

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Exit strategies from a lockdown are considerably more granular than throwing a simple lockdown on/off switch.

As an example, The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has recently published a paper, Suppression Exit Strategies: Options for Lifting Lockdown Measures in the UK, which has been generally well received.


I've not read it in any detail, but it seems to provide a helpful overview of the different possible strategies, how they'd work, and what the pros and cons are.

However it's done, various economies are going to have reopen gradually, one sector at a time, with manufacturing and building restarting before retail, and retail before tourism, bars and restaurants, and so much will depend on access to reliable testing.
 

Innula Zenovka

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I told my spouse it reached negative 28 dollars a barrel and got the expected question. What does that actually mean?
It means that dealers who had bought oil on forward contracts that fell due yesterday who hadn't been able to find final buyers had themselves to take delivery, which meant they were paying people with spare storage capacity to take delivery for them.

Similar to farmers having to tip milk down the drain, only in this case they're putting it into storage tanks until they can find refineries that want it.
 

Casey Pelous

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Exit strategies from a lockdown are considerably more granular than throwing a simple lockdown on/off switch.

As an example, The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has recently published a paper, Suppression Exit Strategies: Options for Lifting Lockdown Measures in the UK, which has been generally well received.


I've not read it in any detail, but it seems to provide a helpful overview of the different possible strategies, how they'd work, and what the pros and cons are.

However it's done, various economies are going to have reopen gradually, one sector at a time, with manufacturing and building restarting before retail, and retail before tourism, bars and restaurants, and so much will depend on access to reliable testing.
Or there's the well-thought-out strategy from the dumbass running Georgia; open up the hair salons and fitness clubs ASAP.
 

Kara Spengler

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So let's say we open up a region (whether it be city or state) and legally allow any business to open, to "restore the economy." What exactly do you expect will happen?

Speaking for myself, as someone in a vulnerable category who fully believes in the existence of this virus and that it's far more than "just the flu", I won't be going out regardless of what the mayor, the governor or the president says. I'm not attending restaurants, bars, movie theaters, spas, or gym. I may be in a minority, but I won't be the only person making this decision, so that's one segment of the population that will not add to the local economy.

What happens to the population that is ready to go out and about or feels they have no choice but return to their job? Here's a use case scenario:

The local restaurant opens, and a few people drift in and more-or-less engage in social distancing while dining, but some don't. A week later a waiter gets sick. A few days later the dishwasher and the cook start showing symptoms and everyone on staff hears that the first waiter is now in the ICU of the local hospital. One waiter shows up for work the next day; everyone else is either too sick or too afraid to come in.

Customers come in and try to place an order, then hear from the one overwhelmed waiter that there's no food because cook is out sick, the cashier is out sick. When pressed, he blurts out that half the restaurant staff have COVID-19. The customers flee and post the news on Facebook "Did you know the (restaurant) is crawling with coronovirus!! My god, I was in there today and I hope I didn't touch anything!!"

Restaurant closes. Everyone loses their job.

Three weeks later the first waiter is recuperating, but the cook has died. Several of the customers have also gotten sick. One of them caught coronovirus at the gym, but he thinks he caught it at the restaurant and he sues.

What have we gained?
Yeah, a lot of people who could work from home, especially in vulnerable populations, will probably keep on doing so until there is a vaccine. Since my wfa agreement says m to f now I plan on at least working from home some days, if not most of them.
 

Kara Spengler

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It means that dealers who had bought oil on forward contracts that fell due yesterday who hadn't been able to find final buyers had themselves to take delivery, which meant they were paying people with spare storage capacity to take delivery for them.

Similar to farmers having to tip milk down the drain, only in this case they're putting it into storage tanks until they can find refineries that want it.
Thanks, I more meant though that I should have expected the question.
 

danielravennest

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Florida, Georgia, Tennessee all starting to open things. What idiots does that area have in charge anyway?
In the case of Georgia, a man who became governor by overseeing his own election as Secretary of State, didn't know you can be infectious while asymptomatic, and thinks hairdressers and barbers can maintain social distancing while doing their jobs.

He's gotten a lot of pushback from local officials, and I for one won't be patronizing optional businesses so long as the virus is still active.
 

Dakota Tebaldi

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So hey our pastor buddy Tony Spell of Life Debacle Church or whatever - you know, the one here in Louisiana who says he'll keep holding church services despite social distancing guidelines and all that - well he was arrested today for aggravated assault!

It stems from an incident on Sunday that was captured on video. A grand total of one (1) protestor was standing out by the road outside the church, when a church bus pulled into the church's driveway, then backed up and aggressively reversed at the protestor, stopping just short of hitting him, before driving back up the church driveway. Driving the bus was none other than Pastor Doofus. Le video:


When informed of the warrant for his arrest, Spell originally asked police to come to the church and that he would surrender himself there. At the church, Spell, his attorney, and a bunch of other church leaders had set up a podium and microphones for a "news conference", where he planned to give a speech in front of several bus loads of his congregants before he was arrested. At the last minute, however, police directed him to surrender himself at an actual police station in Baton Rouge. So, Spell came - and he trucked the whole circus, including the buses of his parishioners, down to the police station parking lot, preparing to give his "news conference" there instead. It....did not go as planned.

In a news conference before Spell's release, Central Police Chief Roger Corcoran said that Spell's attorney, Joe Long, moved the news conference to the police station but officers were prepared to make the arrest when Spell arrived.

"I guess he wanted to do a press conference, but we weren't here for a press conference," Corcoran told reporters.
Spell was arrested basically as soon as he got out of the car, and driven immediately to jail.

As mentioned though he was released a couple of hours later after making bail. His lawyer set up the press conference outside the jail when he was released, and he gave his big speech about having a right to hold church services, pretending I guess that he was arrested for that, and no mention of how he almost ran somebody over with a bus in a fit of pique.
 

danielravennest

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I told my spouse it reached negative 28 dollars a barrel and got the expected question. What does that actually mean?
I explained this in another post, but will do so again. The price here is for a "futures contract". That's a contract to deliver a specified amount of oil on a specific date. Refineries purchase such contracts in order to guarantee a supply of oil for their normal operation. The sellers are the various small oil producers who want a known market for their product. The terms of the contract *require* delivery, or you face big penalties.

Since few people are driving like they used to, the refineries are backed up, and really really don't want to take delivery of more crude oil. So they are willing to pay producers to *not* deliver oil they had already contracted for. Hence a negative price. In terms of economics, a negative price is a very strong signal to the producers (the people with oil wells) to stop drilling and pumping.

West Texas Intermediate, the standard for current oil deliveries, closed down about 25% today, at $12.84. It was like $60 a barrel in January. That's the "spot" price, the price you pay for taking ownership of the oil today. The futures price that went negative is for delivery in June, I think. The refineries are expecting that demand will still be low, and therefore don't want as much delivered in crude form to them.
 

bubblesort

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Meanwhile...in PennsYlvania:

This lady is unquestionably batshit insane, but when it comes to protesting, you can learn a lot from crazy people. She made a highly effective protest sign. People put lots of work into making signs like that, but most of them are never read, let alone photographed and shared. I haven't seen any other protest signs plastered all over the internet like this one. It might be spreading because of her bad spelling, but her message is still clear. IDK whether she intended it to happen like this or not, or if she's happy with the attention, but if you are ever making protest signs, maybe take some notes here.

Protests are the place to troll and make noise. A good protest should be a spectacle that can't be ignored. Good spelling is not necessary for an effective spectacle.
 
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Romana

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The problem is, as I'm sure you realize, the choice called "have the economy prosper at the expense of some lives" doesn't really exist, except in the fevered minds of the cult members.

What's on the menu is, "Stay home, have the economy turn to crap for a while, but don't overwhelm the medical system. Plus fewer dead or disabled people." The other choice is, "Don't stay home, have the disease run rampant, and have the economy turn to crap for even longer. Plus lots of dead or disabled people, not just from COVID-19, but from all the other stuff that can kill you if you don't get definitive medical care promptly."
Guess who wants to choose option B, the Texas lieutenant governor who said grandparents would want to die for the economy.

 

Govi

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This lady is unquestionably batshit insane, but when it comes to protesting, you can learn a lot from crazy people. She made a highly effective protest sign. People put lots of work into making signs like that, but most of them are never read, let alone photographed and shared. I haven't seen any other protest signs plastered all over the internet like this one. It might be spreading because of her bad spelling, but her message is still clear. IDK whether she intended it to happen like this or not, or if she's happy with the attention, but if you are ever making protest signs, maybe take some notes here.

Protests are the place to troll and make noise. A good protest should be a spectacle that can't be ignored. Good spelling is not necessary for an effective spectacle.
They remind me of the people who came out in 2010 to demonstrate against what the GOP labeled "Obamacare." These people are mostly intelligent but can be swayed by aggressive marketing. The Democrats are lousy at marketing; they continually make the mistake of thinking that the facts will speak for themselves, leaving the truth wide open to being papered over by slick lies that appeal to their gut instincts, bypassing all the so-called human reasoning that is supposed to be our distinguishing feature. Unfortunately, the Republicans and Trump are busy doing their best to equate all the inconvenient COVID pandemic countermeasures with Democratic "elite" overreach.

Right now, though, since the People seem to be doing some critical reading and thinking, most of the People are afraid that we will stop the social distancing measures too quickly, these hundreds of loud demonstrators notwithstanding. The whole medical establishment and we may be squandering the opportunity to come up with pithy words to describe what we're collectively doing and equally pithy pointed words about people who want to break the current pandemic countermeasures.

"Loose lips kill" "Job loss now or enormous job loss later" "We can do it together" I'm really lousy at this, but we certainly don't want to lose this extraordinary effort to slogans that damaged "Obamacare" like false and loony claims of "death panels" and "government hands off my Medicare."
 
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Jopsy Pendragon

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Here's the link to the New York Times article I wrote about:
Cities That Went All In on Social Distancing in 1918 Emerged Stronger for It
I'm somewhat inclined to think that cities with sensible leadership were already inclined to do better and being responsible about social distancing just comes with it. They enjoyed a surge after because the natural competition from other less-proactive cities was stalled by their own mismanagement.

And as far as L.A. vs. San Fran goes, 100 years ago, L.A. was still pretty spread out, and San Francisco's citizens were living in much more densely populated conditions by comparison.

I'm not saying that they're wrong about the early/late response, just that there seem to be other plausible factors that could just as easily be responsible for the differences. :)
 

Aribeth Zelin

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Or there's the well-thought-out strategy from the dumbass running Georgia; open up the hair salons and fitness clubs ASAP.
Funny you should mention it - I got an email from the salon I went to when we still lived in Atl and I managed to catch my hair on fire. The owner doesn't want to open, and if any of her employees wish to risk it, they will require osha/cdc training because she doesn't want them getting sick, or her customers getting sick. Personally, I suspect that in the states pushing to open, that a lot of smaller places will just say feck off and stay closed. Living in one of those states, I -really- hope this.
 
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Govi

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To the point of shibboleths with some power with respect to social distancing and stay-at-home orders, we do have "flatten the curve" which it seems most people get. People also get that SARS-CoV-2 is contagious before/without making its victims symptomatic, that testing is necessary. That means that governors of American states and leaders of other countries will have to be on top of the situation all the time and when the curve flattens and good testing is available, have in place a well-known plan to loosen things up gradually. People can sign up for a lot of misery and inconvenience if they know when/how its going to end.
 
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bubblesort

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"Loose lips kill" "Job loss now or enormous job loss later" "We can do it together" I'm really lousy at this, but we certainly don't want to lose this extraordinary effort to slogans that damaged "Obamacare" like false and loony claims of "death panels" and "government hands off my Medicare."
Yeah, it's hard to come up with good slogans and ideas for direct action. The most effective protester I ever knew was a guy named Ernest, he was an extremist atheist. So extreme, some of his actions got international headlines. My favorite Ernest protest was when the city of Harrisburg's mayor declared a city wide fast to solve our financial problems. Obviously, this is a violation of the spirit of separation of church and state, so we protested. One of us had a box of granola bars in their car, so we started handing them out during the fast, in front of city hall, because it was funny, and it made people smile. Then we got more to hand out from a corner bodega. It didn't stop the fast or get an apology or anything, but it got people talking.

Too bad the best protesters are so crazy. Last I heard, Ernest became a super hard core orthodox messianic jew, or something like that, so he broke off contact with everybody, including me. You can't really protest against assembling, but if you wanted to ignore that logic... if I imagine Ernest organizing a counter protest to the current reopening protestors, he would probably stage a big funeral procession for the protestors who are about to die or something like that, maybe. Hard to say. I'm not crazy enough to be good at that kind of thing. I just recognize genius when I see it.
 

bubblesort

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Funny you should mention it - I got an email from the salon I went to when we still lived in Atl and I managed to catch my hair on fire. The owner doesn't want to open, and if any of her employees wish to risk it, they will require osha/cdc training because she doesn't want them getting sick, or her customers getting sick. Personally, I suspect that in the states pushing to open, that a lot of smaller places will just say feck off and stay closed. Living in one of those states, I -really- hope this.
It will be interesting to see the lawsuits when businesses start opening up. A super litigious person gets corona, blames it on a cashier for not wiping down the cash register well enough between customers, then sues them for it. That's gonna be a mess.
 

Jolene Benoir

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OMFG.

Barr calls stay-at-home orders 'disturbingly close to house arrest'

This piece of shit. He wants us to die in the name of money. I argue that we need to take it case by case, these garbage people argue that we ALL need to open up or face legal charges.

I hope that states stand up against him and say, "Go ahead and charge us, let it work it's way through the legal system"
 

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This lady is unquestionably batshit insane, but when it comes to protesting, you can learn a lot from crazy people. She made a highly effective protest sign. People put lots of work into making signs like that, but most of them are never read, let alone photographed and shared. I haven't seen any other protest signs plastered all over the internet like this one. It might be spreading because of her bad spelling, but her message is still clear. IDK whether she intended it to happen like this or not, or if she's happy with the attention, but if you are ever making protest signs, maybe take some notes here.

Protests are the place to troll and make noise. A good protest should be a spectacle that can't be ignored. Good spelling is not necessary for an effective spectacle.
Been to plenty of protests since 2016. Probably stood in the exact same spot where she's standing. I have lots of practice making signs. We organize parties around making them.

I kind of believe in walking the talk.