Brexit.

[Innula Zenovka]

David Cameron's Chancellor explains basic civics to his former party's central office:

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

"This" is definitely transparency legislation.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

"This" is definitely transparency legislation.

? Please, just tell me the name of the EU directive to which you refer, and I'll look it up. Or give me something to go on, at least.

 

[Kara Spengler]

Tusk has already tweeted that he's recommending acceptance of the UKs request, and most analysis is that the EU will accept that.

Now, this is important... If the EU just says "yes", the existing wording of law kicks in without any more action in parliament and the extension is to January. If they propose a different period, that will require parliamentary action which Boris & the hardliners can sink and still cause a no-deal on the 31st.

Of course Jan 31 is still too soon to do anything reasonable except for a full withdrawal of A50. The odds of that though are pretty slim, politicians are like sailors moving around deckchairs when there is a 'break glass to stop titanic sinking' panel that is bleedin obvious!

 

[Kara Spengler]

Cue a lesson on lockpicking from inside the wardrobe.

 

[Daniel Voyager]

 

[Innula Zenovka]

The malign influence on British journalism of Dominic Cummings, Johnson's version of Steve Bannon

British journalists have become part of Johnson’s fake news machine

It’s chilling. From the Mail, The Times to the BBC and ITN, everyone is peddling Downing Street’s lies and smears. They’re turning their readers into dupes.

www.opendemocracy.net

See also this thread by David Allen Green, who assisted with the article:

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[Sid]

The way British politics seem to work, it looks like a pretty good week schedule.

The moment the EU announces the next extension of A50 or the refusal of any extension, the whole planning could be different very quickly I guess.

 

[Daniel Voyager]

BBC News - PM says he will try for 12th December election

Brexit: Boris Johnson to try for 12 December election

Labour says it will "absolutely support" an election but only if a no-deal Brexit is "off the table".

www.bbc.co.uk

I guess it will be interesting to see how well the brexit party will do at the GE. I think MPs are in full a huge shock especially with the Labour party.

Boris Johnson will do well I think. The SNP will gain more seats.

Another hung parliament maybe ?

 

[Innula Zenovka]

BBC News - PM says he will try for 12th December election

Brexit: Boris Johnson to try for 12 December election

Labour says it will "absolutely support" an election but only if a no-deal Brexit is "off the table".

www.bbc.co.uk

I guess it will be interesting to see how well the brexit party will do at the GE. I think MPs are in full a huge shock especially with the Labour party.

Boris Johnson will do well I think. The SNP will gain more seats.

Another hung parliament maybe ?

First he has to persuade the opposition (and, indeed, his own MPs) to agree to an election on December 12, and the whole thing is a bit academic unless and until the EU27 grant an extension -- they probably will , but we don't know for how long it will be.

If there is an election, then it seems to me inevitable that the SNP will pick up almost all, if not all, the 12 seats in Scotland currently held by the Conservatives and that the Lib Dems will take a lot of seats from the Conservatives in London, the South and the Southwest, which they lost to the Conservatives in 2015.

The two big questions -- which I can't answer -- are what's going to happen to the Conservative vs Brexit Party (BXP) votes and how well the Labour vote will hold up in leave-voting seats in the North, Wales, and the English Midlands.

Depending on how the Conservatives vs BXP vote works and how many Labour voters defect to the Conservatives rather than the BXP or (if they're Remain supporters) to the Lib Dems, that could go either way -- either the Conservatives can pick up a lot of Labour seats or Labour move ahead through the Tory/BXP split.

To my mind, the Conservatives are likely to do badly out of that, since Leave supporters, whether they normally vote Labour or Conservative, will have the choice of voting for either the Conservative or BXP candidate, or sticking with Labour and the chance to vote Leave or Remain in a subsequent referendum, while Remain-supporting Lib-Dems and Labour voters have the much simpler choice of voting for the candidate most likely to deliver a second referendum, since that's the best chance of stopping Brexit completely.

But how that works in practice and how the numbers come out are completely up in the air, I think, and will be until a lot nearer the event.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

This is all getting rather scary:

Most voters think risk of violence against MPs is 'price worth paying' over Brexit

Research finds majority of both leave and remain voters feel violence worth it to get outcome they support

www.theguardian.com

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[danielravennest]

? Please, just tell me the name of the EU directive to which you refer, and I'll look it up. Or give me something to go on, at least.

Perhaps Argent means the Transparency Rules for Intermediaries and Taxpayers

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Perhaps Argent means the Transparency Rules for Intermediaries and Taxpayers

If I properly understand the fullfact.org article to which I linked earlier, those are discussed in the second section, beginning

One possibility is that he is referring to the EU’s new “anti tax avoidance directive”, the last part of which has to be applied in member states by 1 January 2020 (although it’s unclear if they will still take effect if we leave with no deal at the end of October).

As I read the article, though, three of the directive's provisions are already active in British law and the remaining two, to be activated in January 2020, are comparatively minor technical adjustments.

 

[Tigger]

Johnson's master stroke, now that he understands that he won't get his december election, is to do nothing. Literally, his plan is for the government to go "on strike" until it gets what it wants.

A government that can't get anything done stops trying to get anything done and a prime minister who has a reputation for not working refuses to work. How does that change anything?

In a way I guess that's the ideal state for Johnson. He wants to *be* prime minister, but he surely doesn't want the work involved with it.

 

[Sid]

Somehow 'a banana republic' comes to my mind.

 

[Sid]

But on the bright side: Still six days to go, so plenty of time left.

 

[Sid]

EU set to put Brexit delay on hold after Johnson's ultimatum

PM’s threat to pull deal if Corbyn rejects general election leaves Brussels in state of flux

www.theguardian.com

Tick, tack, tick, tack........... Trick or treat?

 

[Daniel Voyager]

EU delays Brexit extension decision

It was a trick all along and a big lie for the 31st of October.

Has anyone thought if the general election goes ahead on 12th December there could be a very low turnout for it.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Well a GE was long overdue... and then we'll see how it turns out and what happens.