Brexit.

Sid

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Yeah, I read that earlier on, but although Christmas time is approaching quickly now, my believe in Santa and miracles is still somewhere on the back burner.
I would be pleasantly surprised if there would be some decisive action before the 31st .
Meaning a decision to go for the agreement, hold an general election, a new referendum or withdraw A50, go for a no deal, ask to start negotiations for a fundamentally other deal that has a majority in parliament. Anything that gives hope for a final solution within the next extension period.
I don't see it happen.
More procedures to delay and to keep the cards covered will follow , more unicorn hunting, more poker rounds, more fear to loose the own constituency, tons of bla bla and the Speaker of the House leaving the sinking ship.
That is what will be up next more likely.

Yes, it makes me grumpy.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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Yeah, I read that earlier on, but although Christmas time is approaching quickly now, my believe in Santa and miracles is still somewhere on the back burner.
I would be pleasantly surprised if there would be some decisive action before the 31st .
Meaning a decision to go for the agreement, hold an general election, a new referendum or withdraw A50, go for a no deal, ask to start negotiations for a fundamentally other deal that has a majority in parliament. Anything that gives hope for a final solution within the next extension period.
I don't see it happen.
More procedures to delay and to keep the cards covered will follow , more unicorn hunting, more poker rounds, more fear to loose the own constituency, tons of bla bla and the Speaker of the House leaving the sinking ship.
That is what will be up next more likely.

Yes, it makes me grumpy.
The general assumption here is that a general election, probably in January, is inevitable if the EU agree to another extension (which they haven't yet, because they're waiting to see what Parliament does, presumably since the EU don't want to be blamed for forcing something on the UK, and want to be seen as responding to whatever the UK is doing).

The deal Johnson brought back is unacceptable to different constituencies for various reasons -- it places a customs barrier in the Irish Sea/St George's Channel, to the fury of the DUP, it has the potential seriously to undermine workers' rights and environmental protection by removing the legal obligation on the UK to keep these in line with those in the EU to ensure "a level playing field" and turning them into no more than an aspiration contained in the Political Declaration, and it locks us into a no-deal Brexit if no agreement has been reached at the end of 2020 by removing the ability of Parliament to compel the PM to ask for one.

This is a lousy deal, and Parliament won't accept it, though probably they would accept it (or May's WA) if it were subject to a confirmatory referendum with Remain as the alternative.

You're completely right in saying that the only way forward is a General Election, but the opposition are unwilling to agree to one being called until the threat of No Deal has been taken off the table completely, since they quite simply do not trust Boris Johnson not use any trick he can to force us into one.

Add to this the fact that no one (including Conservative back benchers) wants a General Election in December (difficulties canvassing in bad winter weather, voters and party activists being focussed on the forthcoming holidays rather than electioneering, venues being pre-booked for Christmas events, difficulties with postal ballots and so on) and it's pretty much inevitable that there will be no significant movement on a GE until after an extension has been offered (so we know what the timescale is) and until the October 31 deadline has passed, so Johnson and Dominic Cummings can't pull any more clever-clever cunning plans.

We in the UK are as sick of this nonsense as anyone else -- more so, because it's our country it's happening to -- but given the various requirements of EU and UK law and the intransigence of the government, there's no alternative way forward.
 
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Sid

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As expected:



“The period provided for in article 50 (3) TEU as extended by the European council decision (EU) 2019/584 is hereby further extended until 31 January 2020,” the draft agreement says.

“In the event that the parties to that agreement complete their respective ratification procedures and notify the depositary of the completion of these procedures in November 2019, in December 2019 or in January 2020, the withdrawal agreement will enter into into force respectively on [the first of the month of the relevant month].”
The saga continues......
 
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Sid

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Tigger

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3 months? If we do eventually leave, we will still be 'brexiting' for years to come as the next stage of negotiations start and go on and on and on and on. Do we start a separate thread for the negotiations to re-join?
 

Sid

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3 months? If we do eventually leave, we will still be 'brexiting' for years to come as the next stage of negotiations start and go on and on and on and on. Do we start a separate thread for the negotiations to re-join?
Nah, I think we'll see Scotland and maybe Wales and Northern Ireland leave the UK first.
Or greater London?

 

Bartholomew Gallacher

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You're completely right in saying that the only way forward is a General Election, but the opposition are unwilling to agree to one being called until the threat of No Deal has been taken off the table completely, since they quite simply do not trust Boris Johnson not use any trick he can to force us into one.
Anyway, the HoC just now rejected Johnson's bid for a general election, so expectations are he's trying to change the laws which regulates early elections in order to make it happen easier by reducing the necessary majority from 2/3 down to simple majority:


Have fun!
 
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Innula Zenovka

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Anyway, the HoC just now rejected Johnson's bid for a general election, so expectations are he's trying to change the laws which regulates early elections in order to make it happen easier by reducing the necessary majority from 2/3 down to simple majority:


Have fun!
He'll probably get that now that the extension has been formally offered by the EU.

The only argument now is over the date, and that will quite possibly be decided tomorrow, Tuesday 29th.

Whenever it takes place, I have no idea how it's going to turn out.

Nevertheless, I think it's inevitable that the Conservatives will lose most, if not all, their 13 Scottish MPs.

The Lib Dems will enjoy great gains in London, the South and Southwest, quite possibly picking up most, if not all, the seats they lost in 2010 (almost all, I think, to the Conservatives) plus several more.

What happens in the leave-supporting areas in the North of England and the English Midlands, and the Conservative parts of Wales, is anyone's guess -- previous elections are no real guide, since Brexit is cutting across traditional party loyalties and seats which only two years ago were in serious contention between only two parties are now in quite serious contention between three, or even four.

My gut feeling is that the Remain vote in England is going to be primarily tactical -- Labour supporters in areas where the main contenders are the Conservatives and the Lib Dems will vote Lib Dem, and Lib Dem supporters in areas in contention between Labour and the Tories will vote Labour, so long as the candidate is a remain supporter.

I'm inclined to dismiss a lot of the apparent acrimony between Labour and the Lib Dems as being directed at Remain-supporting Tories who are worried a vote for the Lib Dems might put Corbyn into Number 10, just as I tend to discount the apparent fighting at the top of Labour as being an acknowledgment of the fact about 60% of current Labour MPs represent areas that voted Leave in 2016, and that the concerns of Labour voters who voted Leave in 2016 (of whom there must be a considerable number) need some recognition and acknowledgment, at least -- quite simply, Labour can't afford to tell them to bugger off and vote for Farage, because enough of them might do to allow the Tories to capture a lot of traditionally Labour seats.

But, other than that, I have no idea how it's going to work out, other than well for the Lib-Dems and SNP and either considerably better or worse than expected for at least one, and possibly two, of the Conservatives, Labour and Brexit Parties.
 
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Kara Spengler

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The extension is officially in the pocket now.
This thread will thrive for at least another three months. :coffee:

You mean you really think they will not just ask for another extension 3 months from now? Probably after not doing anything but this time they really really really really mean they will maybe think about the faintest possibility of doing something.

I just thought of the hitchhiker's scene where the guy lays in the mud.
 

Innula Zenovka

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You mean you really think they will not just ask for another extension 3 months from now? Probably after not doing anything but this time they really really really really mean they will maybe think about the faintest possibility of doing something.

I just thought of the hitchhiker's scene where the guy lays in the mud.
Well, barring some utterly unforeseen circumstance, we'll have had a general election, and thus a completely new House of Commons (and quite possibly a change of government, too) by then, which I think must count as "doing something" on any fair estimation.
 
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Ariane

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I think it is pretty much a given at this point that no party is going to win a majority. It comes down to which is bigger: "Conservatives + Brexit" or "Labour + Lib Dems + SNP". If it is the former expect a No Deal Brexit on Jan 31. If it is the latter expect another extension to make time for a second referendum.

The general election is a proxy referendum on Brexit whether you like it or not. No other issue seems to matter.
 
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Tigger

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The general election is a proxy referendum on Brexit whether you like it or not. No other issue seems to matter.
But it isn't. It never is.

There will be tribal voters: those like my own mother who have never voted for any party but 'theirs' and who can't even articulate why they vote that way.
There will be voters who absolutely hate Corbyn or Johnson and could never vote for either one regardless of their policies
There will be those who swallow the 2 party dichotomy, only Blue or Red can win and that is the only choice
There will be voters, believe it or not, who don't give a damn about brexit and vote on other causes or issues.

And there will be voters who are largely swayed by brexit.

But in no way is a general election ever going to be a proxy referendum.
 

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Labour to back early general election

The UK looks set for a December general election after Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn announced his party was ready to fight the "most radical campaign ever".
Mr Corbyn said his condition of taking a no-deal Brexit off the table had now been met after the EU agreed to extend the deadline until 31 January 2020.
Labour to back early general election
 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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The bill for elections at 12th of December passed the HoC, now the House of Lords needs to decide on it. One step closer to a general election in December.
 
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