Brexit.

[Innula Zenovka]

I said at the time the question on the referendum ballot was, in effect, "Do you want to buy a pig in a poke?"

Unfortunately, a lot of people seem to have to learn the hard way why such purchases rarely turn out well, and many of them still swear the bag contains not just a prize-winning sow but also a complementary unicorn and a handful of magic beans, too.

 

[Daniel Voyager]

BBC News - Brexit: Boris Johnson will send extension letter - court document

"Boris Johnson will send a letter to the EU asking for a Brexit delay if no deal is agreed by 19 October, according to government papers submitted to a Scottish court"

 

[Tigger]

He may be saying that in court submissions but he's still saying in person that he wont. This seems to be part of his eternal strategy of telling everyone what he thinks they want to hear but his actions not being guided by his promises.

 

[Essence Lumin]

He is such an arrogant prick. The EU should nicely tell him to fuck himself and let the UK flounder.

 

[Tigger]

They pretty much did. UK requested 'urgent' talks over the weekend and the EU refused as Johnson's proposal gave nothing to discuss.

 

[Ariane]

BBC News - Brexit: Boris Johnson will send extension letter - court document

"Boris Johnson will send a letter to the EU asking for a Brexit delay if no deal is agreed by 19 October, according to government papers submitted to a Scottish court"

According to "Phil", the judge requested a signed affidavit to this effect and the Government Lawyer didn't have one. BJ's incentive to send a letter to the EU on time is much easier to break if it doesn't involve perjury.

 

[Daniel Voyager]

According to "Phil", the judge requested a signed affidavit to this effect and the Government Lawyer didn't have one. BJ's incentive to send a letter to the EU on time is much easier to break if it doesn't involve perjury.

If there is any extension to the 31 January 2020 which is the new withdrawal date I think. The Brexit party will become even more popular with leave voters I think during the next general election or a 2nd vote. Respect the first vote first!

I just wish they would stop delaying the process and deliver the result one way or another.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

If there is any extension to the 31 January 2020 which is the new withdrawal date I think. The Brexit party will become even more popular with leave voters I think during the next general election or a 2nd vote. Respect the first vote first!

I just wish they would stop delaying the process and deliver the result one way or another.

That's part of the Remain strategy, though -- delay the election until after October 31 because that's likely to syphon English votes off from the Conservatives to the Brexit Party, to the advantage of Labour and the Lib Dems, depending on the constituency.

Delivering the result, as you suggest, is impossible. All that leaving the EU will do, with or without a deal, is move us on to the next, far more difficult, phase of the negotiations.

And, as people keep forgetting,

Yes, the pictures from 1998 show Bill Clinton and his handpicked US peace envoy. But it was the European Union that made the Good Friday agreement possible. It was because both the UK and Ireland were now members of a larger entity and, crucially, a shared single market, that the border between them could fade to invisibility. Tamper with that and you erode the foundation of the peace that has held for two decades.

It points to a glum truth about Brexit. Thanks to the complicated, bloody history and geography of these islands, leaving the EU, including the single market and customs union, means constructing a border between the EU and the UK in the one place where it’s just too dangerous to have such a border. Put another way, leaving the EU would be easier for every other member state than it would be for us. We should not be the first country to leave the European Union. In fact, given our past – our pain and the peace that ended it – we should be the very last.

Peace in Ireland is precious. Brexit has made us forget that | Jonathan Freedland

Boris Johnson’s stance on the Irish border shows his casual disdain for the Good Friday agreement, says Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland

www.theguardian.com

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Seems Legit​

 

[Essence Lumin]

Some, one, unnamed poster is a pain in the ass. Only 80 or so posts and she always disagrees or something with me.

 

[Essence Lumin]

Some, one, unnamed poster is a pain in the ass. Only 80 or so posts and she always disagrees or something with me.

I sure didn't mean you Grandma.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

He is such an arrogant prick. The EU should nicely tell him to fuck himself and let the UK flounder.

That does involve throwing the RoI, an EU member state, under the bus, putting at risk the whole of the Peace Process and likely restarting the killings, and doing a great deal of damage to the economies of several other EU countries and the EU as a whole.

Furthermore, since the EU27 leaders can read a newspaper as well as can anyone else, they know that the present Parliament can agree on nothing and that soon after the October 31 deadline passes, we're headed for a General Election which, it is greatly to be hoped, will return a rather different, and more decisive, Parliament.

 

[Essence Lumin]

That does involve throwing the RoI, an EU member state, under the bus, putting at risk the whole of the Peace Process and likely restarting the killings, and doing a great deal of damage to the economies of several other EU countries and the EU as a whole.

Furthermore, since the EU27 leaders can read a newspaper as well as can anyone else, they know that the present Parliament can agree on nothing and that soon after the October 31 deadline passes, we're headed for a General Election which, it is greatly to be hoped, will return a rather different, and more decisive, Parliament.

Thank you Innula. I was reacting emotionally which isn't what is needed.

 

[Ariane]

My own prediction of where this is going.
- BoJo will not get no deal brexit on 31 Oct, the deadline will be extended at least a year, maybe even two years.
- General Election in November. The pro leave Tories will lose seats to the Brexit party, and the fence sitting Labour will lose seats to the remain coalition of Lib Dem, Green, and SNP.
- No majority for anybody, but hopefully the remain coalition + Labour can work something out over the pro brexit coalition (Tory, Brexit, DUP), because if they win No Deal is pretty much a sure thing.
- Chances are this is all heading to a binding vote between Remain, and May's Deal. Corbyn dreams of renegotiating a more moderate brexit, but I do not see enough interest in doing that, even if he manages to become PM. Corbyn is better off horse trading with EU after the binding vote if Brexit wins.
- Remain will likely win, and the whole nightmare will be over.

 

[Tigger]

A referendum is problematic in its way. Mostly because of the question that will appear on it.
Will it be a 2 way question like last time or 3 way maybe even more

May's Deal/Remain
No Deal/Remain
May's Deal/No Deal
May's Deal/No Deal/Remain
Remain++ (adopt euro, join schengen)/Remain/EEA/May's Deal/No deal.

Obviously Remainers want to see remain as an option but leavers don't they will argue the decision to leave has been made. But if that's so then we need other options on a ballot i.e. a EEA option maybe more.

The hardcore leavers will demand a No Deal option calling anything other than no-deal a betrayal. Sensible leavers will want to see a deal as an option but many thoughtful leave voters wants a better, closer deal than May's deal represents.

But if you try to cater for Deal/No-Deal options on the leave side, leavers will claim it's a stitch up to divide the leave vote. But the leave vote was ALWAYS divided which is the root of the chaos. Not all forms of leave are the same or acceptable to all leave voters. So while there was a tiny majority for leave there is no majority for any particular form of leaving.

The whole problem we have now was that the original referendum was framed as in vs out. But out comes in lots of flavours and the promises made about what out would mean have all been broken. Hannans "Nobody is talking about leaving the single market" and Johnsons "I cant imagine any british goverment leaving the single market" come to mind.

I can't help feeling that the only way to come to anything like a fair result would be lots of options with a preference voting system. Which should end up showing what people are prepared to live with rather than trying to split a complex set of options into a binary choice.

 

[Tigger]

Grieve on Johnson:

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

An Australian style transferable vote is the only way to run a multi-way deal, and it eliminates the "split the vote" argument.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

The UK appears boxed in on the Brexit extension

6th October 2019 Years, even decades, can pass without there being anything significant to note about the UK constitution. Now there seems to be something almost every day. Constitutional law shoul…

davidallengreen.com

Analysis of the legal position in which HMG in general and the PM in particular find themselves, as a result of assurances given to the court in Scotland last week, in the run-up to the main hearing tomorrow (Monday October 7).

Essentially, Johnson is now completely boxed in, and it seems very likely that, if Parliament does not accept the Withdrawal Agreement, the courts will order Johnson to request an extension from the EU27 as prescribed by the Benn Act, under pain of penalties for contempt, and very possibly perjury, if he doesn't, and if he still refuses, the court will send the letter for him, while he's banged up in Belmarsh in the "nonces' wing" for his own protection.

Meanwhile, excellent explanation (retweeted by my MP, as it happens) of why Labour won't support Johnson's version of the NI backstop -- essentially, the new proposals call for NI to stay within a Customs Union and Single Market with the EU for the next 4 years, but then it ends unless both the DUP and Sinn Fein agree it should continue.

This gives the DUP a veto and enables them to take NI out of the Customs Union and Single Market unilaterally, against the wishes of Sinn Fein, the RoI and (if applicable) the UK government, and isn't on.


And finally

 

[Tirellia]

Some, one, unnamed poster is a pain in the ass. Only 80 or so posts and she always disagrees or something with me.

That would be me. Because you post things like this:

He is such an arrogant prick. The EU should nicely tell him to fuck himself and let the UK flounder.

Post count isn't everything. I don't bother replying to most stupid posts, I just hit the eye roll button. Sorry that you don't like it.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I have to say I've never seen the point of the "disagree" or "eye roll" buttons unless they're followed up with an explanation of why the poster disagrees.

In most cases, anyone following this thread knows whether any of the regulars in the thread are likely to agree or disagree with particular points, after all, and I take the view that, if someone happens to be interested in the fact I disagree with something, they're probably more interested in why I disagree with the point than in the simple fact I do, possibly because they think they may find particular facts or lines of argument that I advance might be useful when the contentious point appears elsewhere.

So if I see a post that makes me roll my eyes, I tend either simply to ignore it or respond to it, as politely as I can.

Though politeness can, of course, create its own misunderstandings