Brexit.

Kara Spengler

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Argent Stonecutter

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I can conceive of our government ending up at no deal out of incompetence and ignorance. But the idea of deliberately heading for no deal is mad, the consequences of that would surely, surely destroy the Tory party for good and if there is one thing May is loyal to, it's her party.
You think? She seems mostly loyal to Theresa May. I get serious "Reign in Hell" vibes from her.
 

Lucifer

Gonnae no dae that, jist gonnae no.
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Sid

Only available with a mug of coffee.
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More chance of a success than buying Sansar. :)
 

Innula Zenovka

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'Impossible' for Brexit port to be ready

The mayor of Ostend has told the BBC the Belgian port will not be ready for a new ferry line in time for Brexit.

Bart Tommelein was asked about the UK government's award of a £13.8m contract to Seaborne Freight for a service between Ramsgate and Ostend.

He said it was "impossible" that Ostend would be ready and that he was going to Ramsgate next week to discuss the situation with "all the stakeholders".

His remarks came as Transport Secretary Chris Grayling again defended the deal.
The article goes on to say that Ramsgate won't be able to handle the traffic, either.

However, since Seaborne Freight don't have any ships to sail between Ostend and Ramsgate, I don't see what the problem is.
 

Kamilah Hauptmann

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Innula Zenovka

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Theresa May suffers Commons defeat over no-deal Brexit

Theresa May was handed a humiliating defeat in parliament by Labour and Conservative MPs who organised to demonstrate the strength of parliamentary opposition to leaving the EU with no deal.

MPs voted by 303 to 296 in favour of an amendment to the finance bill tabled by Labour’s Yvette Cooper to curb some of the government’s tax administration powers in the event of no deal without explicit authorisation for parliament.

The coalition of high-profile MPs behind the amendment are expected to use the victory as a springboard for further parliamentary action to prevent the UK crashing out.

Sir Oliver Letwin, the former Tory minister who rebelled to back Cooper’s amendment, said: “The majority tonight that is expressed in this house will sustain itself. We will not allow a no-deal exit to occur at the end of March.”
 

Sid

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Finally some sense in the Commons.
It was about time.
 

Innula Zenovka

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The problem is that, while there's clearly no parliamentary majority for crashing out without a deal, it's by no means clear that there's a majority for actually doing anything, either. I hope this means that eventually the government will accept the need for a second referendum, simply to resolve the impasse.

Meanwhile, one prediction:


(screenshot because David Allen Green locks his account when he's offline.)
 

Khamon

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You can lock your account while you're offline?
 

Innula Zenovka

Nasty Brit
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You can lock your account while you're offline?
David Allen Green does, so only people who follow him can post to his timeline when he's not around. Unfortunately, it means people who don't follow him can see his tweets only when he's online.
 

Kara Spengler

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The problem is that, while there's clearly no parliamentary majority for crashing out without a deal, it's by no means clear that there's a majority for actually doing anything, either. I hope this means that eventually the government will accept the need for a second referendum, simply to resolve the impasse.
That would mean trying to get a delay from the EU though, right? What are the odds of that?
 

Innula Zenovka

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That would mean trying to get a delay from the EU though, right? What are the odds of that?
So long as it's a bona fide attempt to break the deadlock by offering (e.g.) withdrawal agreement vs remain, I can't see it being a difficulty.

I doubt they would be prepared to agree if it's just an excuse to try to reopen negotiations, but they want to get this settled one way or the other, and they don't want the UK to crash out without a deal, which would be bad news for the EU. It would be far worse for the UK but it would hurt most of the EU too.
 

Sid

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Theresa May suffers Commons defeat over Brexit plan B | The Guardian

Theresa May will be obliged to present MPs with a new Brexit plan within three days if her current proposal is voted down next week, after a procedural amendment to the plan’s progress through the Commons was passed amid chaotic scenes.

The amendment to the business motion for the plan, drawn up by the Conservative former attorney general Dominic Grieve, gives May the deadline to put forward new plans if she loses the vote, as many expect, next Tuesday.

The amendment was passed by 308 votes to 297 following stormy scenes in which a series of Conservative MPs castigated the Speaker, John Bercow, for allowing the amendment.
Am I wrong, or does this most likely bring general elections or a new referendum into play if the Brexit plan is voted down next week?
With what else can she come up with in such a short period?
 

Innula Zenovka

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Theresa May suffers Commons defeat over Brexit plan B | The Guardian



Am I wrong, or does this most likely bring general elections or a new referendum into play if the Brexit plan is voted down next week?
With what else can she come up with in such a short period?
Labour have said they'll call a vote of no confidence (which will almost certainly not pass) if the government lose the first vote, so in that sense today's developments -- Parliament saying that, in the event of the Government losing the first vote, they have to come back with Plan B in 3 days rather than 3 weeks -- don't really change things that much.

Plan B may well turn out simply to be "Ask the EU for more time so we can try to think what to do next, other than simply crash out without a deal," which no one other than the Brexit Taliban wants. I don't think today's vote actually changes things much, other than that it makes it more difficult for the government to try to run down the clock so that, eventually, they get the Withdrawal Agreement voted through as they only way to avoid no deal, and I think it probably increases the chances we'll end up with a second referendum, but at this point I don't think anyone (including the Government) really knows what happens next.
 
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Sep 21, 2018
84
EU.. Germany
Theresa May suffers Commons defeat over Brexit plan B | The Guardian



Am I wrong, or does this most likely bring general elections or a new referendum into play if the Brexit plan is voted down next week?
With what else can she come up with in such a short period?
To me it appears as the most possible option too, Like Innula wrote "Ask the EU for more time so we can try to think what to do next, other than simply crash out without a deal,"
Whether the EU will accept this is another question. I remember that one EU-official has spoken about this option. He said, whether the EU will agree depends on how the UK is planning to use the time. The EU wants to see at least a certain chance that a solution can be found at the end Just a further kicking the can down the road (or something similiar he said) will not be accepted,

Of course the EU is very much interested to avoid a crashing of the UK out of the EU, because it will do much damage also to the EU. But a further longer time of uncertainty will also do damage espec. to the economy. So the EU must have some hope that a crash can be avoided and ponder what would be the least damaging option..to give the UK more time or let the UK crash.
 
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Veritable Quandry

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I can't see the EU being very thrilled giving more time for a general election as it won't solve anything. The Conservatives are split between May's Plan, Renegotiate May's Plan, or Die Hard. Labour are split between Renegotiate from Scratch or Remain. With both main parties internally split and neither likely to take a commanding majority, a general election amounts to shuffling the seats in the clown car. Of the basic five options, only The Deal on the Table and Remain are viable options from the EU's perspective. Hard Brexit is still the default, but I can't see anyone other than a handful of Conservatives actually presenting it as a viable option. So the odds are that if there is any consensus from a general election, it would be for an option that the EU has ruled out.

The only way I see forward is a referendum between the current deal and remain. The EU could be convinced to give more time because they could live with either outcome, even if most favor remain. But giving more time for an election that probably won't bring clarity or even worse will lead to a majority for an option that is already off the table isn't in their interest and would only make the situation in the UK worse.