2020 Democratic Primary

Brenda Archer

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Nevertheless, somehow many countries other than the US do, or have until recently managed to, sustain large, more or less coherent, left-of-centre political parties.

The history of how the Labour Party took over from the Liberals as the main anti-Conservative party in the UK post WW1 is quite instructive, to my mind:

This is really interesting.

There are places in the US where the voters are more willing to get involved, and other places where they’re much less involved. These attitudes become part of the local cultures.

Three of the places where ordinary voters feel entitled to get involved, and that I’ve been to, are VT, UT and western OR. They actually have a lot in common, including being partly descended from New England, with its traditional town meetings running local government. Utah is a place where many people learn how to lead groups in church and then take this skill set with them when they leave (so the LGBTQIA community in Utah has always been well organized). Portland has a long standing tradition of local activism. The national media wanted to portray Portland’s antifa protests as some weird scary extremism, it’s not, it’s young locals being local.

By way of contrast, Democrats in places where organizing relied on factions coming together in coalition are only as strong as those factions. The weakening of the union movement is damaging not just to voter numbers, but as a place where locals can learn the political ropes.

Democrats in Phoenix include a lot of Latino organizations and progressive liberals like the ACLU and Planned Parenthood supporters. In places like this, it can feel like the Democrats’ support is drawn largely from the professional classes. The problem with this is that average people who can’t see themselves in one of the liberal factions may not have much of a motive to vote. If they’re working class men or evangelicals, they’re probably going to be pulled in by the Republican media aimed at them.

There’s a large number of working class Americans who simply can’t see themselves as involved in politics for themselves, and it’s worse in some places than others, because of local history and traditional industries. It can be really undemocratic on the ground in such places. Leadership in such places is for them, not us. Local churches can have particular influence as they simply tell people which Republicans to vote for.

What makes Bernie’s movement so interesting to me, is that it’s reaching out past the typical Democrat coalitions and appealing directly to young people of all classes. It’s genuinely Left in this way, even if the people in it are not usually particularly ideological.

The business as usual, professional class Democrats have always been almost as conservative as the Republicans on economic issues. If they can tolerate the presence of new factions in the party coalition, the party will survive. It’s right to say the Democrats have to save democracy, now that the Republicans have been taken over by Christofascists. The Democrats’ biggest enemy in many local places is years of letting “someone else” run the government, whether it’s been the old Democratic coalitions, or Republicans. That’s not going to cut it going forward. We could wind up drowning in the incompetence and inexperience in both parties.
 

Roxanne Blue

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On Tuesday a geographically and demographically large bloc of states will hold primaries. I would hate to narrow the field to two candidates before that based on four smaller states. There are some that are not viable, but a few who may turn their campaigns around by outperforming expectations.

Except Bloomberg. The sooner he fucks right off the better.
I have no issue with the under-performing candidates waiting for Tuesday's results to tell them what their own polls already have. They're not going to "catch fire" and overtake the top two or three. If I'm wrong about narrowing the field and one of them does outperform expectations, then I'm fine with that one staying. I don't see any benefit to keeping "a few".
 
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danielravennest

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On Tuesday a geographically and demographically large bloc of states will hold primaries. I would hate to narrow the field to two candidates before that based on four smaller states. There are some that are not viable, but a few who may turn their campaigns around by outperforming expectations.

Except Bloomberg. The sooner he fucks right off the better.
I think Steyer was just getting out before the rush in a few days. After Tuesday we will see several more candidates either drop out, or stop campaigning actively. The reason for the latter is if they have accumulated some delegates. They can use those delegates if it comes to a contested convention, to get their policies included, or a position on the winner's team. But if they have a poor showing on Tuesday, their campaign contributions will likely dry up, so they will have to cut back.
 

Grandma Bates

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Just as they did with candidates of colour, the Republican apologists I follow on twitter sent out simple, bland tweets saying Mayor Buttigieg dropped out. Then, predictably, all the hate flowed from the follow up tweets. Of course they posted nothing about Steyer or other less offensive candidates when they did the same thing. It has become a predictable dance which allows the apologists to make happy posts quoting scripture one moment and then the next fanning the flames of hate and bigotry all while allowing them a thin veneer to disavow their own role in this charade. It is maddening.
 

Anya Ristow

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When we discussed Warren as VP pick, I think we neglected to consider that her replacement in the Senate would be chosen, for at least a time, by a Republican governor. Ugh.

 

Dakota Tebaldi

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I was not genuinely not expecting that. How does the second-place guy drop out after like 3 state primaries?

I think this isn't a good thing for Sanders if for instance Iowa's Buttigieg delegates are basically now free to vote for anyone they want, i.e. suddenly Joe Biden gets a winner's share of Iowa's delegates even though he didn't win a single delegate in the actual caucus. What do the already-voted states' rules say about how drop-outs' delegates get distributed?
 
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Beebo Brink

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I was not genuinely not expecting that. How does the second-place guy drop out after like 3 state primaries?
I was surprised as well, because even if his campaign has run out of money he could just wait for Super Tuesday to see what happened. On the other hand, if he truly felt that there was no path to the presidency, he could have decided to drop out to promote the "coalesce around one person" that everyone is clamoring for. I'm guessing that most of Buttigieg's supporters would go to Warren or Biden rather than Sanders.
 
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Dakota Tebaldi

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I'm guessing that most of Buttigieg's supporters would go to Warren or Biden rather than Sanders.
I think you're right, and I think it's funny because I believe Warren is ideologically closer to Sanders than she is to Biden, but isn't widely perceived as such (mostly due to propaganda).
 

Pamela

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I was surprised as well, because even if his campaign has run out of money he could just wait for Super Tuesday to see what happened. On the other hand, if he truly felt that there was no path to the presidency, he could have decided to drop out to promote the "coalesce around one person" that everyone is clamoring for. I'm guessing that most of Buttigieg's supporters would go to Warren or Biden rather than Sanders.
You no doubt are aware but: He had to drop out before Tuesday in order to help Joe get up to the 15% delegate threshold in CA, where Bernie otherwise would take all the delegates.
 

Cristalle

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You no doubt are aware but: He had to drop out before Tuesday in order to help Joe get up to the 15% delegate threshold in CA, where Bernie otherwise would take all the delegates.
It might help. But as we saw in South Carolina, there are still people who voted for people that suspended their candidacies. Deval Patrick, Andrew Yang, Cory Booker (!), Michael Bennet, and John Delaney all got votes, although not that many.
 
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Roxanne Blue

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I think Buttigieg has established himself as a future contender and is smart enough to know that's enough for this round. As I said above, time for the lower tier candidates to surrender their hopes.

He was never going to be the 2020 nominee, but he can position himself for 2024 if Trump and Putin rig another election - assuming there is a 2024 election, of course.