“I don’t know if you remember the terrible floods that besieged the Lake District during the coalition government? Well, when we finally got through those, I sat down with senior experts in the field, and I asked them: why are these events that are supposed to happen every year in 100 happening each year? And in that moment, I could see it in their eyes. How, they thought, can this minister be so ignorant?” He laughs.
“Very patiently, they began to explain to me what should have been blindingly obvious. If you have 1,000 places that have a one in 1,000 chance of flooding, it’s pretty likely one will flood every year – and even more so if they have a one in 100 chance of flooding. The statistics don’t mean what the layman thinks. If we’re going to avoid flooding, we must assume it is going to happen.”