The US-Iran War Has Begun

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You want to know exactly how badly Trump’s Iran war is going?

He’s blaming Jared Kushner.
His son-in-law. The man he trusted to simultaneously negotiate peace in the Middle East, end the Ukraine war, and broker a nuclear deal with Iran. The man he put in charge of some of the most consequential diplomacy on the planet — not because Jared had foreign policy experience, but because he married into the right family and Trump trusts no one who isn’t either blood or leverage.

That guy. Trump is now pointing at that guy.
It's a semi-long breakdown of how Jared is now, apparently, the one they'll be using as the fall guy for when things go really badly. I'm not sure I swayed. We're talking about the husband of Trump's favorite. Is he this malignant? (What am I asking?!?!)
 

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US intelligence reports early indications that Iran might deploy mines in the Street of Hormuz. Trump promises military consequences to Iran that will be at a level never seen before it Iran is trying to do so.

Everything is always "at a level never seen before" with Trump. He knows no other superlatives.
 

Innula Zenovka

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We did attack Iran last year at Netanyahu's behest with targetted strikes on their nuclear production. In 2017-2020, there were still adults in charge of the military and around Trump. This time is a very very different situation. Netanyahu through AIPAC has also captured Congress. I don't get it, but they all seem to be fucking beholden to Israel. It makes zero sense, and America suffers at the whims of Israel.
This argues that it's a bit more complicated than AIPAC's malign influence:


One common explanation for Democratic politician intransigence is donor cash. Democrats, the argument goes, are bribed to support Zionism by big donors, often with money funneled through AIPAC and similar networks. The subtext for a lot of these charges is the antisemitic implication that Jewish people have a lot of money and are therefore able to rig the election process with their cash.

There are a number of problems with this conventional wisdom. First of all, donors don’t generally bribe politicians—which is to say, donors do not pay politicians to change their views or adopt the donor’s positions. If they did, the solution would be simple—just outbid them. AIPAC doesn’t give that much money to individual candidates; if politicians were truly for sale, you could just crowdfund and buy them off for the pro Palestine position. Which would be venal, but ultimately worth it.
 

Casey Pelous

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(And can Casey define "little" as a Roman concept?)
It has been a few decades since Latin class, but I believe that would take the less-well-known sarcastive case: Paululum insanus est, intelligisne quid dicam?
 
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It has been a few decades since Latin class, but I believe that would take the less-well-known sarcastive case: paulum insanus, intelligisne quid dicam?
I said concept. This is not a language quiz, puella.
 

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Iran confirmed now what many people suspected: that Mojtaba Khamenei was wounded during the air strike which killed his father, which is why he didn't make a public appearance yet.


Also former president Mahmoud Ahmadinedjad, whom many people believed to be killed, seems so be still alive.

After he left office he became an outspoken critic of Ali Khamenei, and therefore was quite restricted.

 

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It has been a few decades since Latin class, but I believe that would take the less-well-known sarcastive case: Paululum insanus est, intelligisne quid dicam?
Paulum ineptus, maybe? Stultus? Ridiculus? I'm not sure it really translates.
 

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This argues that it's a bit more complicated than AIPAC's malign influence:

Of course it is more complicated, but it is certainly a factor. Also, the whole "zomg it is antisemitic!" thing about Jews having money is just stupid and detracts from the point.

On a related note, from the notoriously anti-semitic Bernie Sanders:

 
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Per bronxelf's political punditry (she's Jewish, btw) Democrats are highly dependent on voter donations because accepting big corporate donations generally draw condemnation from Democratic voters. (Republicans, on the other hand, don't give a fig where the campaign donations come from.) Jewish voters and donors, as a group, are a prominent faction in the coalition of disparate minorities that form the base of the Democratic party. Pissing off Jewish voters, therefore, really is a big deal, so Democratic candidates, not to mention elected politicians, will try very hard not to do that.

Jewish voters are not the only faction, of course. It's a big umbrella. So Democratic leaders are always walking a tightrope between them all, doing their best to not piss off any one group more than another. Rather obviously, if you're talking about Israel and the Middle East, it's the Jewish faction that has the strongest held opinions on what we should do there.
 

Innula Zenovka

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Per bronxelf's political punditry (she's Jewish, btw) Democrats are highly dependent on voter donations because accepting big corporate donations generally draw condemnation from Democratic voters. (Republicans, on the other hand, don't give a fig where the campaign donations come from.) Jewish voters and donors, as a group, are a prominent faction in the coalition of disparate minorities that form the base of the Democratic party. Pissing off Jewish voters, therefore, really is a big deal, so Democratic candidates, not to mention elected politicians, will try very hard not to do that.

Jewish voters are not the only faction, of course. It's a big umbrella. So Democratic leaders are always walking a tightrope between them all, doing their best to not piss off any one group more than another. Rather obviously, if you're talking about Israel and the Middle East, it's the Jewish faction that has the strongest held opinions on what we should do there.
But that presupposes Jewish voters who are inclined to contribute to Democrats necessarily agree with AIPAC's hard-right, pro-Netanyahu, pro-Trump, line, which, as I understand it, is certainly not the case.
 

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Of course it is more complicated, but it is certainly a factor. Also, the whole "zomg it is antisemitic!" thing about Jews having money is just stupid and detracts from the point.

On a related note, from the notoriously anti-semitic Bernie Sanders:

There's also Track AIPAC. That's a platform founded by Casey Kennedy and Cory Archibald, who is a former campaign staffer for Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez.

 
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Innula Zenovka

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Of course it is more complicated, but it is certainly a factor. Also, the whole "zomg it is antisemitic!" thing about Jews having money is just stupid and detracts from the point.
I dunno. I thought he made a good point about inertia -- that is, politicians generally are slow to abandon positions that have served them well in the past. And, when most of the current Democratic leadership got started, support for AIPAC was pretty uncontentious and bi-partisan.
 

Bartholomew Gallacher

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But that presupposes Jewish voters who are inclined to contribute to Democrats necessarily agree with AIPAC's hard-right, pro-Netanyahu, pro-Trump, line, which, as I understand it, is certainly not the case.
My poll less than one week old says otherwise: 68% of the American Jews support American's decision to go to war against Iran.



 

Innula Zenovka

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My poll less than one week old says otherwise: 68% of the American Jews support American's decision to go to war against Iran.



Jews supporting an attack on Iran, whose government are just as much authoritarian, ethno-religious nationalist thugs with genocidal intentions as are Israel's , if not more so, does not necessarily equate to supporting AIPAC, to my mind, any more than does the fact that much of the Iranian diaspora (at least in the UK) similarly support the attacks suggest they're particular fans of Netanyahu.
 

Bartholomew Gallacher

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Well sounds like a plan Iran could come up with, yes. But: it would not make much sense for the Iranian government, because this would give America enough justification to invade Iran on ground. And also create enough support for such a step within America.

And that's something neither Iran nor Trump wants to see happen, I suppose.
 
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