The 2024 U.S. Presidential race

[Innula Zenovka]

France does not have PR. The national assembly is elected from 577 single member constituencies.

In countries without PR, far right movements exert influence by having the main party of the right adopt their policies. That is exactly what happened in Australia with the (il)Liberals adopting the immigration and refugee policies of One Nation, and in the UK with the Conservatives adopting Brexit and the same immigration and refugee policies the Liberals had adopted in Australia.

Quite possibly so, but what I'm saying is that such changes are the result of social and economic changes, not the voting system.

The far right have made considerable gains since 2000 in the US, the UK, most of the EU and much of the rest of the G20, regardless of the voting system. I'd say that this has multiple causes, among them the effects of the 2008 banking crisis and the pressures of irregular immigration caused worldwide by the climate crisis and political and social upheavals in many countries.

A country's voting system is, to my mind, an element in the political response to these pressures. It's not any sort of determinant. Adopting PR in the US and the UK might well be a good idea for various other reasons, but it would do little to affect the global economic and political forces that determine so much of a country's politics.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

If you look at democracies that use FPTP—which are actually quite rare—you’ll find they all tend to show the same divisiveness, take no prisoners campaigning, fantasy politics and very high polarisation. They also have a marked tendency towards alienated and poorly informed electorates, very powerful chief executives and relatively weak legislatures. The explanation cannot be that there’s something in the water.

I don't see the relationship between what i was saying and your reply?

I was saying it's more about the education systems than the voting system, though our antiquated electoral system is dumb in itself.

 

[Free]

lol!

Iranian hackers pretended to be Ginni Thomas as they targeted Trump campaign: report

Iranian hackers who tried to infiltrate former President Donald Trump's campaign pretended to be Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas' wife Ginni, according to a new report. Three hackers with links to the Iranian government impersonated the conservative activist when they targeted people close...

www.rawstory.com

Iranian hackers who tried to infiltrate former President Donald Trump's campaign pretended to be Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas' wife Ginni, according to a new report.

Three hackers with links to the Iranian government impersonated the conservative activist when they targeted people close to the Republican presidential nominee, according to CNN's report based on court documents and law enforcement sources.

The trio — Masoud Jalili, Seyyed Ali Aghamiri and Yasar (Yaser) Balaghi — stand accused in Washington D.C. federal court of aggravated identity theft and wire fraud on behalf of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to the report.

Ginni Thomas is not named in the indictment but it notes that hackers sent phishing emails to a former homeland security adviser and former U.S. president under the guise of a justice's spouse in April and May, CNN reported.

Sidebar: https://mastodon.social/@heidilifeldman/113215413379215457

 

[Free]

So many loonies (also, racists) on the right side of the political divide.

Michigan man charged with assaulting postal carrier over Kamala Harris flyer

A 61-year-old Farmington Hills man faces multiple criminal charges after he allegedly assaulted a female postal carrier Thursday evening upon receiving a flyer in the mail featuring Vice President Kamala Harris.

Investigators say Russell Frank Valleau was allegedly upset about receiving the particular piece of mail and told the postal carrier that he did not want that "Black b****" in his mailbox. He's accused of yelling derogatory, racist and sexual remarks about Harris and the carrier, calling the postal carrier a "Black b****" and lunging at her with a knife.

The postal carrier used pepper spray on Valleau to stop the attack. Farmington Hills police later arrested him in a neighbor's yard.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

He's deteriorating by the day

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

Yes, he's gone...

 

[Katheryne Helendale]

He's deteriorating by the day

Old Accordion Hands!

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

The race remains open and thrilling because: For the first time in recorded history, more Americans are identifying with the Republican Party in the third quarter of a presidential election year than the Democratic Party — and are aligning with the GOP on key issues heading into November. Gallup released an in-depth analysis this week revealing that 48% of adults in the U.S. either identify as Republican or lean towards the Republican Party, compared to only 45% who identify as Democrat or lean towards the Democratic Party.

“Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party,” Gallup noted. The analytics giant continued, “At the aggregate level, there are typically more Democrats and Democratic leaners than Republicans and Republican leaners in the U.S. adult population.” In observing prior elections, Gallup pointed out that Democrats have typically won the White House when they have had “larger-than-normal advantages in party affiliation.”

https://washingtonstand.com/news/more-americans-identify-as-republican-than-democrat-as-november-draws-nearer

 

[Beebo Brink]

Right-wing biblical organization says Republicans will win. Yawn.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

Poll analyst Nate Silver found that Gallup's results were the least accurate of the 23 major polling firms Silver analyzed, having the highest incorrect average of being 7.2 points away from the final result.

 

[Free]

Poll analyst Nate Silver found that Gallup's results were the least accurate of the 23 major polling firms Silver analyzed, having the highest incorrect average of being 7.2 points away from the final result.

I think you forgot a link: Gallup, Inc. - Wikipedia

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Trump's Hitlerian Month

A September to Remember

snyder.substack.com

 

[Innula Zenovka]

The race remains open and thrilling because: For the first time in recorded history, more Americans are identifying with the Republican Party in the third quarter of a presidential election year than the Democratic Party — and are aligning with the GOP on key issues heading into November. Gallup released an in-depth analysis this week revealing that 48% of adults in the U.S. either identify as Republican or lean towards the Republican Party, compared to only 45% who identify as Democrat or lean towards the Democratic Party.

“Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party,” Gallup noted. The analytics giant continued, “At the aggregate level, there are typically more Democrats and Democratic leaners than Republicans and Republican leaners in the U.S. adult population.” In observing prior elections, Gallup pointed out that Democrats have typically won the White House when they have had “larger-than-normal advantages in party affiliation.”

https://washingtonstand.com/news/more-americans-identify-as-republican-than-democrat-as-november-draws-nearer

One explanation might be that the Republicans are particularly attractive to white racists, and the majority of voters in the US are white. That is, the Republicans have a particular appeal to a sizeable subgroup of white voters, and the voters of any racial background who are repelled by the Republicans' racism probably wouldn't vote for them anyway.

 

[Free]

One explanation might be that the Republicans are particularly attractive to white racists, and the majority of voters in the US are white.

Not as much as their used to be!

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Not as much as their used to be!

Which gives the Republicans even more incentive to ensure, one way or another, that the wrong sort of people are discouraged, if not prevented, from voting.

 

[Noodles]

I got my mail in ballot yesterday and dropped it into the box today.

So I guess I am done here.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

Jeff Flake endorses Kamala Harris for president

Former Republican Sen. Jeff Flake is endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris because of his conservative values — not in spite of them — he said Saturday in an interview announcing his support for the Democratic presidential nominee.

Flake, R-Ariz., is crossing party lines to endorse a Democrat for the second presidential election in a row. He backed President Joe Biden over former Republican President Donald Trump in 2020 and voted third-party rather than cast a ballot for Trump in 2016.

“I'm a conservative. I believe in the rule of law,” Flake said during an interview at The Nile Coffee Shop in Mesa on Saturday afternoon. “First and foremost, I want to support a presidential candidate that respects the rule of law, somebody who, if they lose an election, wouldn't try to use the presidential powers to overturn that election.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Trump is worried about nuclear warming, not global warming...

Aaron Rupar (@aaron.rupar) on Threads

Trump: "What happened to the environment? They don't mention it. They don't mention that the ocean's going to rise a quarter of an inch of the next 500 years ... what they should start mentioning is nuclear warming." 😳

www.threads.net

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

One explanation might be that the Republicans are particularly attractive to white racists, and the majority of voters in the US are white. That is, the Republicans have a particular appeal to a sizeable subgroup of white voters, and the voters of any racial background who are repelled by the Republicans' racism probably wouldn't vote for them anyway.

To add to this, I think a lot of white elderly conservatives are 100% on board with the republican party due to right wing media but many many young people are kind of edgy and like to maintain the pretense of being a moderate or independent even if their beliefs are far more consistent with the democratic party and many of them really hate Trump.

 

[Cindy Claveau]