Covid-19 vaccine thread

Aribeth Zelin

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Bad news for seniors: the German government expects the Astra Zeneca vaccine to have only an effectiveness of around 8% for people age 65 and higher. Astra Zeneca's vaccine uses a vector virus instead of mRNA, which makes it require less cooling. So this vaccine is the vaccine of choice for countries/regions where maintaining the cooling chain of the other vaccines is hard.

Guess I need to check with my mom and make sure she's not getting that one - because she's in her 70s.
 

danielravennest

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This seems like a pretty big flame-out from a major player in the industry.

Merck Drops Out
Historically half of clinical drug trials fail, so this was to be expected. Fortunately the incentive of selling a vaccine to the entire world prompted everyone to try. We may end up with half a dozen options by the time they all finish.
 

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Bartholomew Gallacher

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Update: Astra Zeneca replied to the rumor that their vaccine has only 8% efficteveness with the age group >= 65 years. They are referring to the medical study which indicates that the effectiveness is indeed in the required range.


A younger study though claims though that the first study contains not enough cases to make a statistically proof statement about this at all.

 

Innula Zenovka

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At present, it remains unclear exactly who the source of the Handelsblatt report is, and what data they might be basing the figure on.

The German health ministry has challenged Handelsblatt’s report, saying it mixed up the efficacy rate in over-65s and the proportion of older people involved in the vaccine trials. The German health minister, Jens Spahn, described the Handelsblatt article as “speculation” on Tuesday morning and declined to comment while the European Medicines Agency (EMA) said analysis of AstraZeneca’s trial data was ongoing.

[....]

“Elderly people were recruited to the UK phase 3 relatively late and were relatively well shielded, so there were few cases of Covid that had occurred at the time of submission of data to MHRA for approval. There may have been more by the time of EMA submission,” said Prof Adam Finn, a professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol, who was involved in the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine work.

But the Guardian understands that the EMA has not been given further data, it had only received answers to questions about the existing data.

Finn added that researchers were “baffled” as to where the 8% figure came from, with others adding that lower efficacy among older adults would be a surprise given the immune response among this group seen in the clinical trials.
Also


Speaking as someone with a personal interest in this, I think at present the balance of evidence seems strongly in favour of my accepting the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine when I'm offered it.
 

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Another of those "pat ourselves on the back" initiatives, but hey, it's at least better than having them act like things are normal.

 

Innula Zenovka

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Looks to me as if Commissioner Kyriakides dropped the ball rather badly when she negotiated the contract, or otherwise she'd be talking about enforcing it in the European and British courts.
 
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Sid

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I think that the EU - UK relationship will end up in an all time low pretty soon.

“People in the United Kingdom are vaccinated with a very good vaccine produced in Europe, supported by European money,” said Peter Liese, a German MEP in Angela Merkel’s CDU party, referring to the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine.
“If there is anyone thinking that European citizens would accept that we give this high quality vaccine to the United Kingdom and would accept to be treated as second class by a UK-based company, I think the only consequence can be to immediately stop the export of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine. And then we are in the middle of a trade war. So the company and the UK better think twice.”
 

Casey Pelous

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I gotta admit, given my choice among deep-into-the-ol'-sinuses swab, deep-into-the-ol'-gag-reflex swab, and deep-into-the-ol'-pooter with a skinny little swab, I'd go with drop the drawers and go for it.
 

Innula Zenovka

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I think that the EU - UK relationship will end up in an all time low pretty soon.
Just have to see what happens, I guess. Meanwhile, everyone involved in actually producing, distributing and delivering the vaccines will be working flat-out, regardless of who ends up getting vaccinated.

I've just noticed that the quote is from a German CDU Member of the European Parliament.

Obviously my view of MEPs is skewed by the people we sent, but quite apart from the extremists like UKIP, our MEPs from the main parties weren't always the best and brightest their parties had to offer. That's only a few from each party, I'm sure, but here we were always reading of MEPs from all parties saying phenomenally stupid things at times.

The Sir Humphrey in me suspects it was sometimes a useful way of getting rid of someone who was turning out to be a serious liability to the party but was also unsackable, for some doubtless discreditable reason, since that way you were removing them from British politics altogether and placing them in an environment where they could be as big a nuisance as they liked, because while they were in Brussels, they were someone else's problem.

But that's British MEPs, who were probably an exception.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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Re Vaccine nationalism --- I've been thinking and, while obviously I'd like to receive my shot sooner rather than later, it really makes no huge difference to me if I have to wait a couple of weeks or so, if it means that Sid (or anyone else in the EU) gets theirs a week or so sooner. I'd rather not have to wait, of course, but it's not worth getting upset about.

ETA


 
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Sid

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If it only were weeks, than there would be no big troubles I guess.
They are talking about months of delays.
And now Biden all of a sudden announces 100 million vaccines, while the 45 administration did nothing to order them.
That makes me suspicious too.
Like, we have the EU money already in our pockets, they can wait as a thank you, so that we can rake in some more from the others first.

And it is about principles as well.
This is not how civilized countries and manufacturers should do business with each other.
 

Innula Zenovka

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If it only were weeks, than there would be no big troubles I guess.
They are talking about months of delays.
And now Biden all of a sudden announces 100 million vaccines, while the 45 administration did nothing to order them.
That makes me suspicious too.
Like, we have the EU money already in our pockets, they can wait as a thank you, so that we can rake in some more from the others first.

And it is about principles as well.
This is not how civilized countries and manufacturers should do business with each other.
I don't think they're talking about months of delays. From what I've read, they're saying production in Astrazeneca's British factories started earlier than it did in their EU plants, so those factories have had the extra time to iron out local bottlenecks and delays.

Meanwhile, the British government seems to take the attitude that they signed a contract with Astrazeneca three months earlier than did the EU sign theirs, to which they're holding the company since they're not prepared to throw into chaos the whole NHS vaccination programme by departing from it.

Imagine the situation the other way round -- how would the Dutch or Belgian or German governments react had they signed contracts three months before Britain did, and then the UK regulators approved the vaccine a month after their European counterparts, and Boris Johnson then started demanding that Astrazeneca disrupt the EU vaccination programme by diverting vaccines to the UK so we could catch up?

There seems to be some dispute about what AstraZeneca is, in fact, contractually obliged to do, which doubtless the courts will resolve if necessary, but I get the overall impression -- which is probably not worth much -- that Commissioner Kyriakides seems to place more emphasis on what she sees as the company's moral obligations than she does on its contractual ones, which may suggest she took her eye of the ball when the original contracts were negotiated and signed.

The FT has detailed coverage

EU demands UK Covid vaccines from AstraZeneca to make up shortfall

EU and AstraZeneca fail to resolve vaccine supply dispute

Vaccine export rules: what is the EU proposing?

ETA: more background


As that article suggests, the contract with AstraZeneca is confidential but the equivalent contract with CUREVAC AG says this:

1.12. DELAYS

1.12.1. The Parties acknowledge that there is a risk that (i) the time-line for the EU marketing authorisation or (ii) the time-line for scaling up the production of the Product may be delayed or that (iii) an EU marketing authorisation may not be granted at all or (iv) the production of the Product may not be feasible.

1.12.2. If there is a delay in the supply of the Product compared to the estimated delivery schedule, the contractor will inform the Commission as soon as reasonably possible, explain the reasons for such delay and submit a revised delivery schedule to the Commission which should be as close as possible to the estimated delivery schedule while taking into account the reasons for the delay.
ETA:


(though I'm not sure how far the general ethical question about vaccine-sharing helps in this specific case, because it's by no means clear to me why the EU's ethical responsibility to save lives in the UK, or the UK's ethical responsibility to save lives in the EU, should outweigh the responsibility of either to save lives in the US, Africa or anywhere else, since presumably no one is arguing that British or European lives are inherently worth more than American, Brazilian, North Korean, Syrian or Sudanese lives).
 
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Sid

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I read instead of more background, more British view on things.

I have no details on anything, like most of us, but I can't imagine that the EU chases windmills.
That is normally not their style.

We'll see how things develop.
 

Innula Zenovka

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but I can't imagine that the EU chases windmills.
When the Council of Ministers and the Commission as a whole take a decision, that's normally pretty serious, I agree, but it's not unknown for individual commissioners to go off on tangents sometimes.

As you say, we'll see -- they must have made provisions for exactly this sort of situation when they drew up the contracts.

ETA: David Allen Green in the FT -- basically, no way of knowing without sight of the contract, but assuming it's anything like the contract with Corevac AG mentioned above, it's a question of interpretation based on the exact facts (which I think is his way of saying he doesn't know either, but both sides probably have an arguable case, based on the facts as publicly reported so far).
 
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Stora

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Germany set to limit AstraZeneca jab to under-65s

Germany's vaccine committee has said AstraZeneca's Covid jab should only be given to people aged under 65.
The committee cited "insufficient data" over its efficacy for older people.
The European Medicines Agency is to decide on Friday whether to approve the vaccine for use across the EU.
The UK has been using the AstraZeneca vaccine in its mass immunisation programme for weeks now, and public health officials say it is safe and provides "high levels of protection".
The German announcement comes as the EU is in dispute with leading manufacturers over a shortage of vaccines on the continent.



Coronavirus: Germany set to limit AstraZeneca jab to under-65s