The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

[Sid]

The Guardian|The Russians warn the West, now president Biden has announced that Ukrainian pilots will be trained to fly F16 and other modern fighter jets.

Providing Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets would be a “colossal risk” for western nations, a senior Russian minister has warned, as Washington and London reasserted their commitment to equipping the embattled nation with the military hardware it needs.

Russia’s warning comes after the US president, Joe Biden, told allies on Friday that Washington would back a joint international effort to train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 and other modern fighter jets.

According to Russia’s state-owned news agency Tass, the country’s deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, said: “We see that western countries are still adhering to the escalation scenario. It involves colossal risks for themselves. In any case, this will be taken into account in all our plans, and we have all the necessary means to achieve the goals we have set.”

 

[Soen Eber]

The Guardian|The Russians warn the West, now president Biden has announced that Ukrainian pilots will be trained to fly F16 and other modern fighter jets.

This is worrying ...

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Well, training the Ukrainians on F16 properly would normally take 12-18 months.

According to a leaked US report though they are confident basic training will take about 4 months. But then again this is basic training, so the question is if this would be enough for a real fight.

Leaked U.S. Report Says Basic F-16 Training For Ukrainian Pilots Could Take Just Four Months

An official U.S. Air Force assessment on training Ukrainian pilots has leaked as pressure builds to send Western fighter jets to Ukraine.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Sid]

So let's start ASAP then.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

Well, training the Ukrainians on F16 properly would normally take 12-18 months.

According to a leaked US report though they are confident basic training will take about 4 months. But then again this is basic training, so the question is if this would be enough for a real fight.

I also read from a British source that they've found the Ukranians to be very quick studies, cutting the training time on Leopard and Abrams tanks by several weeks.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

All Ukranians I've met so far are top motivated and had an excellent education. Also many speak English as second language as well. So this is a good foundation.

BTW: I've found this video about the physics and characteristics of hypersonic flight. It describes the technics behind it, challenges and so on. It also takes a look at hypersonic missiles. Interestingly MIT did a recent study on the militaric implications of hypersonic missiles and came to the conclusion that they are no magic stuff, nor changing the game as some people do pretend it to be.

MIT determined that on a perfect ballistic curve a hypersonic glider might even take more time to deliver a payload than a normal ICBM. Of course it is hard to catch on radar due to its speed, and might change quickly its direction. But overall detection of such gliders is no big deal, since they are generating lots of heat and could be tracked via satellites from above. MIT is of the opinion that some military people lied to the congress knowingly about the security implications to get funding for this weapon technology.

My favorite part of the video is when Sabine Hossenfelder, who has a PhD in physics, is laughing about the voodoo technology proposed during the TED talk to make supersonic civil flights reality.

 

[Sid]

I also read from a British source that they've found the Ukranians to be very quick studies, cutting the training time on Leopard and Abrams tanks by several weeks.

And the first batches will be already trained combat pilots. Not on F16's, but with the MIG's.
Of course they have to learn a lot of new things, but a lot of basic stuff will be learned much quicker by them than by the average starting pilots, I guess.

 

[Chin Rey]

And the first batches will be already trained combat pilots. Not on F16's, but with the MIG's.
Of course they have to learn a lot of new things, but a lot of basic stuff will be learned much quicker by them than by the average starting pilots, I guess.

Having a head start helps too. Remember that what we are told about the aid to Ukraine is only the tip of the iceberg and although we don't know for sure, there are some rather strong indications that Ukrainian pilots have been training on F-16 for a while already.

 

[Soen Eber]

Having a head start helps too. Remember that what we are told about the aid to Ukraine is only the tip of the iceberg and although we don't know for sure, there are some rather strong indications that Ukrainian pilots have been training on F-16 for a while already.

Doesn't Poland, the Balkans, and maybe some other east European NATO countries fly F-16s?

 

[Chin Rey]

Doesn't Poland, the Balkans, and maybe some other east European NATO countries fly F-16s?

The Balkans is not a country.

At the moment Poland is the only former East Block country to fly F-16 and they probably need them themselves for a while.

The most likely suppliers to Ukraine are the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway in that order.

The Netherlands replaced their 213 F-16s with F-35s only a few months ago. Not all of the planes are in operational order of course but we're certainly talking about a three digit figure of available ones.

Denmark has just started upgrading to F-35. They have/had 88 F-16s in total but again, I don't know how many are in working order. They probably can't spare them all until they've received all the F-35 they've ordered but they should be able to backfill and replace the losses.

Norway decomissioned their F-16s less than two months before the invasion of Ukraine. The 44 operational planes have been sold, 12 to Draken (a US company flying as targets for he USAF to practice on), the rest to Romania. But apparently the planes haven't been delivered to their new owners yet and the way both the US and the Norwegian government are acting makes me wonder if there's some kind of deal where the buyers receive American F-16s instead, freeing the Norwegian ones for Ukraine. I'm quite sure this is a solution they've discussed at least since it's such an obvious way for USA to ensure Ukraine gets their planes without technically providing them themselves.

Edit:
I forgot to say that Norway also have 28 F-16s they've decided aren't in good enough condition to overhaul and sell. Maybe they will reevaluate this now and at least there should be some quite useful spare parts to retrieve from them.

 

[Sid]

Having a head start helps too. Remember that what we are told about the aid to Ukraine is only the tip of the iceberg and although we don't know for sure, there are some rather strong indications that Ukrainian pilots have been training on F-16 for a while already.

One thing is for sure, the last months I haven't heard that many F16 passing by in years.
I think the Dutch military is busy making them operational again. Shaking them down to get them on their feet again.
And who knows who fly that test flights.

 

[Chin Rey]

One thing is for sure, the last months I haven't heard that many F16 passing by in years.

Hmmm, that's weird. According to Wikipedia, only 24 F-16s are still in service in the Netherlands now, the rest were decomissioned last year. And it's not as if the Dutch pilots need to practice that much on a plane they're not going to keep for long. Oh, and a few days ago the Netherlands suddenly cancelled a sale of 12 F-16s to Draken. Then there's this Ukrainian flag that's been flying outside a certain Dutch airbase for several months...

I can't imagine what's going on; It doesn't seem to make any sense at all.

 

[Sid]

Then there's this Ukrainian flag that's been flying outside a certain Dutch airbase for several months...

We host a lot of Ukrainian refugees at the moment, so... yeah plausible, right?

 

[Soen Eber]

We host a lot of Ukrainian refugees at the moment, so... yeah plausible, right?

Niets te zien hier, ga verder!

Nothing to see here, move along!

 

[Sid]

An unexpected plot twist?

Guardian| Anti-Putin militia claims to have overrun Russian border village

Fighting has broken out along the Russian border with Ukraine after self-described Russian partisan forces launched a cross-border raid and claimed to have overrun a border village for the first time in the war.

The Freedom of Russia Legion, which describes itself as an anti-Kremlin militia seeking to liberate Russia from Vladimir Putin, claimed to have crossed the border and overrun the settlement of Kozinka, while sending units into the town of Grayvoron in Russia’s Belgorod region.

It is not yet clear how many people have been injured in the fighting, which continued into the evening. Footage of the raid, purportedly from a border checkpoint in Grayvoron, has shown casualties, including video of a Russian officer lying facedown in a pool of blood next to Russian passports and other documents scattered on the floor. The video also showed armoured vehicles appearing to overrun the post.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

 

[detrius]

I also read from a British source that they've found the Ukranians to be very quick studies, cutting the training time on Leopard and Abrams tanks by several weeks.

Well, the German Gepard AA tanks that were delivered to Ukraine since 2022 are based on the Leopard 1 chassis.

So if Ukraine received 100 Gepard tanks but trained 200 crews for those tanks, that means they'd have 100 crews that could switch to a similar vehicle with relative ease.

Sure, the weapons are different, but the propulsion system, maneuverability, communications etc. are quite comparable.

Likewise, even if there are no Ukrainian pilots training in F16s, they could be flying training planes like the Northop T-38 instead.

At least that's how I'd do it.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Dimitri Medvedev, deputy head of the Russian security council, former Russian president and very close friend with Putin, has outlined the Russian ideas/plans for peace with Ukraine. So this means he's quite likely pretty much in line with Putin.

His outrageous proposal is to split the Ukraine into three parts. The western parts should be given to several EU states, while the eastern parts should belong to Russia. The middle parts of Ukraine then should have a referendum about joining Russia.

Medvedev states that with this "solution" the conflict will end with a long lasting peace and sufficient guarantees that a new war will not follow soon.

There's also an interim "solution", namely splitting Ukraine between EU and Russia, while in the EU an Ukranian exile government is being build.

Medvedev though thinks that the war at the moment will last for a longer time, like maybe 3 years of truce and then again 2 more years war.

Russischer Ex-Präsident Medwedew fabuliert über Aufspaltung der Ukraine

Russlands Ex-Präsident Medwedew ist für krude Einlassungen im Ukrainekrieg bekannt. Nun schlägt er eine Zerschlagung des Landes in einen russischen und einen EU-Teil vor – und droht erneut mit Atomschlägen.

www.spiegel.de

 

[Cindy Claveau]

Dimitri Medvedev, deputy head of the Russian security council, former Russian president and very close friend with Putin, has outlined the Russian ideas/plans for peace with Ukraine. So this means he's quite likely pretty much in line with Putin.

His outrageous proposal is to split the Ukraine into three parts. The western parts should be given to several EU states, while the eastern parts should belong to Russia. The middle parts of Ukraine then should have a referendum about joining Russia.

First you have to avoid being kicked out of the country you illegally invaded!

 

[Sid]

The Netherlands replaced their 213 F-16s with F-35s only a few months ago. Not all of the planes are in operational order of course but we're certainly talking about a three digit figure of available ones.

Today I read in a Dutch paper, that we only have 48 F16 in The Netherlands at the moment, 24 of them operational. The other 24 can be made operational again. So I guess we have sold a lot already over the years and dismantled a lot that wasn't worth keeping or selling.