The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

Innula Zenovka

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* At the moment the kill ratio is that on 1 dead Russian soldier there are 8-10 dead Ukrainian soldiers.
Where does he get that figure from? No one other than the governments involved knows what the figures actually are, but I see back in November Gen Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff suggested the ratio was more like 1:!.
The most senior US general estimates that around 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured in the war in Ukraine.
 

Grandma Bates

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"Potential security advisor to Donald Trump" means nothing. The information quality of your post wouldn't have changed one bit if you had left out that sentence.

Based on your post alone, he's just some dude with a military background.

Seriously, you could just as well cite Binkov's Battlegrounds.
Col. Macgregor is an experienced war fighter with an impressive list of military accomplishments. Once you look past that, though, he is a hot mess of prejudice and anger. He has advocated for extrajudicial execution of people trying to cross the southern US border, said that the Russian army was too gentle in its invasion of Ukraine, and has a long history of racist comments. With respect to his broader views of the military, he has advocated for disbanding the Marine Corp as an out of date organization while also saying that the Army should be reorganized into smaller, more independent units similar to the Marine Corp. Col. Macgregor's position is that the world should sit back and let Russia have its way in Ukraine.


His appointment as ambassador to Germany was blocked by the US Senate. He has repeated myths about George Soros, and the Anti-defamation league has raised concerns about his history of anti-Semitic remarks. Col. Macgregor has said that it US involvement in World War II was a disaster. He has also said that Germany's approach to admitting its past experiences with the NAZI party was debilitating, and this is the guy that former Pres. Trump thought would be an ideal ambassador to Germany.


The notion that Col. MacGregor's assessment of anything other that small unit tank formations should be given any consideration is revolting.
 

Bartholomew Gallacher

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Well renowned US foreign policy magazine "Foreign Affairs" has an article called "Russia's Rebound: How Moscow has party recovered from it's mistakes."

The article goes something like this:

* Russia has done many dumb things in the past and still does, but lately many of their decisions make much more military sense than before.
* Most likely the conflict will turn into a war of attrition, its unlikely that Russia will come to its senses and abandon the war.
* Putin will throw about 300000 more people to the front, a mixture of experienced people and rookies.
* The retreat of Kherson makes military sense, because this decreased the front line from 1000 to 600 miles.
* The bombing campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure is quite effective, and forces Ukraine to divert ressources between the war and repairing it.
* The new goal seems to hold the land Russia has seized. The strategy to do so is two fold, one part of it is creating a dense defense where regaining territory means paying a high price, the other the destruction of the energy infrastructure.

 

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Bartholomew Gallacher

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I disagree with the PM of Finland, Ukraine trying to join NATO would have most certainly triggered a Russian war against Ukraine before the joining process was finalized. Just have a look at what Russia did 2008 to Georgia, when Georgia wanted to join NATO. There's a pattern how Russia behaves under Putin when neighboring states are warming up too much for NATO, this is dividing that state, getting it into war and therefore preventing the state to join under NATO rules, because NATO regulations prevent states joining which are at war/conflict.

And before 2013 public support for such a thing in Ukraine was really low.
 
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Aribeth Zelin

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I disagree with the PM of Finland, Ukraine trying to join NATO would have most certainly triggered a Russian war against Ukraine before the joining process was finalized. Just have a look at what Russia did 2008 to Georgia, when Georgia wanted to join NATO. There's a pattern how Russia behaves under Putin when neighboring states are warming up too much for NATO, this is dividing that state, getting it into war and therefore preventing the state to join under NATO rules, because NATO regulations prevent states joining which are at war/conflict.

And before 2013 public support for such a thing in Ukraine was really low.
Yes, because not joining has them so much at peace right now.
 

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Well Aribeth, it seems that you simply don't understand: like the USA would have not tolerated during the cold war Canada, Mexico or Cuba becoming full members of the Warsaw pact due to them having borders with the states or being pretty near, there are certain things which Russia will not tolerate. One of this is Ukraine becoming a full NATO member.

I am not saying that this is ok as behaviour, but that's the way it is and how powerful states tend to behave, and based on that neighboring states have to adjust their security politics. Russia has clearly told the whole world that they don't want Ukraine to become a NATO member, which makes strategically sense since it is easy to invade Russia there.

And despite on how mad, sick, ill and so on our own propaganda is depicting Putin at the moment the truth is that security wise it would be better that he's still got some sanity left, so that he will not go full nuclear. So this is what in secret most politicians do hope, that Putin has not gone completely mad already and is still sane enough to not denotate some nuclear warheads.

One of the few red lines in this war which all supporters in NATO do not want to cross is this: no direct NATO involvement in the war, because all don't want to anger Russia too much. So they take this threat and red line very serious. This is also why there are no parts of the Polish army fighting in Ukraine against Russia, because this would mean NATO involvement more or less.

And again: look at what happened to Georgia when they officially bid for NATO membership, the same would have happened to Ukraine. Russia would have never, ever allowed Ukraine to become a member state, they would have acted before with Ukraine like they did in Georgia.

 
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Innula Zenovka

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Norway has a border with Russia, and joined NATO in 1947. More recently, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined NATO in 2004 without provoking a Russian invasion.

Seems to me, though, a bit pointless to argue about counterfactuals, and what might have happened had different decisions been taken 20 years ago. Rightly or wrongly, people acted as they did rather than as they might have done, and we're now living with the consequences.
 

Bartholomew Gallacher

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You do mean 1949, because the NATO was founded on 4th April of 1949. And this was back then the USSR, and the new tensions between USSR and the West were still developing.

Aside that, some look at history and a map might be helpful, so let's have a look at a map of Europe with some markings done by me:



As it is evident, the border of Norway to Russia is small, while it is around 200 km most of this are mountains and rivers/seas, so area where an easy passage is possible is maybe around 40 km long, marked in black. This is something a good army can handle, and will not give major headaches to any country. Aside, as mentioned, the blocks were still building and heating up in 1949, so this is probably why the USSR didn't bother back then too much about it.

The border of Finland to Russia is a different beast, marked in yellow - around 1340 km long. It's also flat, and just mostly forest. That's something which is indeed hard to defend, also keep on mind Finland was founded in 1917, before it belonged to Russia. So the USSR definitely had issues with this border, which is why it fought two wars about it, the Winter War in 1939 and lost. In 1941 there was the Continuation war, which the USSR also lost. Before these wars this border was always one full of tensions. So in the end after loosing two wars in a row against small Finland the USSR had a change of mind, and switched over to a "If you can't beat them, put them on a short leash" type of mentality, which lead to Finland becoming neutral and the signing of the Finno-Soviet-Treaty of 1948.

The Kola peninsula which I have also marked next to Finland is nowadays one of the main areas where Russia has its ICBM launch bases. Of course they came much later, but nowadays are a thing which affects security policies. There is only one major road/train line from Russia to this peninsula, not far away from the Finnish border, so Finland becoming a NATO member is for Russia a security nightmare, because sabotaging the infrastructure to Kola pensinsula in case of a conflict can be done easily by Finland, while it is almost impossible to defend that long border. Also Finland is one of the most militarised societies in Europe, if not the whole world.

Estonia and Latvia? Well, in 2004 Putin at least pretended to be still willing to lean more west ward. Back in 2004 three days after the Balticum joined Putin officially declared that he is quite happy about the improvements in the relationship of Russia with NATO. Also it's about 400 kms of border to Russia, and the vast population majority of Russia lives east of these two countries. So that's more of an annoyance probably to Russia right now.

Ukraine to Russia on land is 1974 km long, and much sparse populated. So much easier to invade Russia there.

Also now for some piece of history, this here was one of the initial planning of Nazi German on how to invade the USSR.



When looking about the first phase of attacks, 3 groups of the Wehrmacht were supposed to invade from nowadays Ukraine, one through the Baltic states and two through Belarus. And the Germans were not the first who enjoyed marching into the USSR/Russia through the Ukraine.

So whether we like it or not, nowadays Russia has its own opinion about the importance of that border for its safety, even more when taking history into account and given the fact that Ukraine is now independent as well.

Then there is also this famous quote by Brzezinski: "It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire."

So this puts Ukraine into a very special, delicate place and position. And that's the reason why Russia also has its own mind about Ukraine being in NATO. The tough question is how to deal with it.
 
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Chin Rey

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Then there is also this famous quote by Brzezinski: "It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire."
With Ukraine suborned, subordinated, subdued and subservant... The Ukrainians have to pay a hefty price for the Russians to feel secure.

And there isn't even a genuine military threat to Russia from the west. There hasn't been for more than 70 years and there won't be in the foreseeable future. It's all a delusion in the collective Russian mind.
 
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Aribeth Zelin

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Well Aribeth, it seems that you simply don't understand: like the USA would have not tolerated during the cold war Canada, Mexico or Cuba becoming full members of the Warsaw pact due to them having borders with the states or being pretty near, there are certain things which Russia will not tolerate. One of this is Ukraine becoming a full NATO member.

I am not saying that this is ok as behaviour, but that's the way it is and how powerful states tend to behave, and based on that neighboring states have to adjust their security politics. Russia has clearly told the whole world that they don't want Ukraine to become a NATO member, which makes strategically sense since it is easy to invade Russia there.

And despite on how mad, sick, ill and so on our own propaganda is depicting Putin at the moment the truth is that security wise it would be better that he's still got some sanity left, so that he will not go full nuclear. So this is what in secret most politicians do hope, that Putin has not gone completely mad already and is still sane enough to not denotate some nuclear warheads.

One of the few red lines in this war which all supporters in NATO do not want to cross is this: no direct NATO involvement in the war, because all don't want to anger Russia too much. So they take this threat and red line very serious. This is also why there are no parts of the Polish army fighting in Ukraine against Russia, because this would mean NATO involvement more or less.

And again: look at what happened to Georgia when they officially bid for NATO membership, the same would have happened to Ukraine. Russia would have never, ever allowed Ukraine to become a member state, they would have acted before with Ukraine like they did in Georgia.

One, I understand perfectly. And honestly, this has nothing at all to do with Ukraine maybe trying to join with NATO or the EU. They didn't try in 2014, but were still attacked. And really, the attack never really stopped, did it, because look at what has been going on in the Donbas region for almost 10 years now.

For someone who shared those videos with Navalny, it seems weird you think that Putin's actions have anything to do with the West, and everything to do with someone with aspirations to an Imperial Crown.

Also, NATO still has NOT attacked, even now having justification [the bombs landing in Poland]. And when Cuba became communist, I guess the US just bombed them into oblivion [oh wait, no, we didn't].

ETA: By the way, The US/Cuba situation is and was not all that different from Russia and Ukraine, and the US is certainly not the good guy in them....

.
 
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GoblinCampFollower

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Where does he get that figure from? No one other than the governments involved knows what the figures actually are, but I see back in November Gen Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff suggested the ratio was more like 1:!.

My guess is that came right out of someone's ass for propaganda purposes, and/or they are including a lot of civilians as "soldiers."

With Ukraine suborned, subordinated, subdued and subservant... The Ukrainians have to pay a hefty price for the Russians to feel secure.

And there isn't even a genuine military threat to Russia from the west. There hasn't been for more than 70 years and there won't be in the foreseeable future. It's all a delusion in the collective Russian mind.
It's just so sad... I wish there was some way for the regular Russian people to know that NOBODY in the West had any serious interest in fighting them. Kind of like how a lot of dictatorships like North Korea also use us as their boogieman as if anybody cared enough to want to mess with them just because.
 

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The company used by Putin to put 50,000 Russian mercenaries in Ukraine will be deemed a 'transnational criminal organization' by the US - NewsBreak

The new designation puts the Wagner Group in the same category as international drug cartels, organized crime syndicates and human traffickers, but stops short of deeming it to be a "foreign terrorist organization."
Wagner has been notoriously brutal in Ukraine, both toward Ukrainian forces and civilians, as well as its own fighters. Russian prisoners sent to fight in Ukraine for Wagner say they've witnessed public executions of deserters and those who failed to obey orders.

Wagner mercenaries have also been accused by the United Nations and Human Rights Watch of committing human rights abuses in a number of African nations, including the Central African Republic , Libya and Mali .