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The Economist: Has China obtained the world’s most important machine?
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Particularly noteworthy is the scepticism with which Mr Lutnick's claims have been met not only by the machine's manufacturers but also by the Dutch government.*Could Dutch know-how have just tilted the global balance of power again? So the Trump administration alleges. Since 2019 America has blocked the export to China of the extreme ultraviolet, or EUV, lithography machines that make the world’s most advanced semiconductors. These machines, whose creations power the most capable artificial-intelligence models, are made only by ASML, a Dutch company. In recent weeks, however, America’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, has thrown the company into crisis by sharing with it his concerns that one of these machines may have found its way to China.
Impossible, says ASML. Europe’s most valuable company has told American officials that it knows the exact location of all 340 EUV machines it has produced, including 26 decommissioned ones. None is in China, it says. What is more, only ASML can transport the highly sensitive machines, which it monitors online, and components that it ships are handled by ASML engineers in customers’ fabs. “ASML has never shipped an EUV machine to China nor have we shipped to China any component, module or equipment specially designed to be used in an EUV machine,” the company says. Despite repeated requests, ASML has yet to be provided with any evidence to support Mr Lutnick’s allegation.
*ETA and by The Economist, come to that:The Dutch government, while taking the American claim seriously, is pushing back too. On a visit to Washington in late June, its trade minister, Sjoerd Sjoerdsma, sought to convince Mr Lutnick, other officials and members of Congress that the Dutch government strictly enforced its export controls, including on EUV technology. In an interview with The Economist on July 2nd, Mr Sjoerdsma declined to provide details of any conversations about Mr Lutnick’s claim. But he says that the Dutch government is not, at present, investigating the American allegation. “If there were things to be investigated or perhaps even to be prosecuted, then obviously we would do so,” he says.
The dispute hinges, at first glance, on whether there is any basis to Mr Lutnick’s allegation. Although no information supporting it has been made public, some people briefed on it describe it as “unverified” yet “not unfounded”. Many industry experts consider it highly unlikely that an entire EUV machine from ASML was shipped to China. But some believe that related components could have been, perhaps via ASML’s own suppliers or other third parties. Others think the issue is more likely to be ASML’s export to China of its older deep ultraviolet, or DUV, lithography tools and related parts and services, most of which are not covered by export controls. ASML’s DUV-related exports to China accounted for about a third of its revenues in 2025.
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