Nobody Cares About World News

[bubblesort]

Maybe Putin will take the day off...

I don't gamble, categorically... but if I did, I would bet money that Russia will not invade on Wed. The media is telegraphing that it's not going to happen, because CNN is spending all day on this story. Historically, CNN does not tell you about things that actually happen. CNN only covers things that didn't happen, like Trump getting removed from office (this time they got him, honest!), and pee tapes (we background checked this source, honest!), and senator Manchin growing a heart (he's totally gonna change his mind this time!), and now they do invasions that didn't happen (american intelligence agencies aren't lying through their teeth this time, honest!).

If something happens, then I might go to CNN for coverage of it, but probably not. Even if you know nothing about what's going on in the world, you can tell from their lack of diversity of stories that they don't actually employ any journalists at CNN any more. Everybody else hits a dozen stories in the time it takes CNN to cover one opinion regarding one issue, about a thing that has not happened. I can get more information surfing twitter than I can get from CNN, and that's a super low bar. I can probably get more information than twitter just sitting at my local dive bar and overhearing conversations from stupid rednecks (which is my analog version of Fox News).

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

I'd be perfectly happy if they don't invade - I've family over there, apparently, in both countries, not to mention the region as a whole.

 

[bubblesort]

Maybe Putin will take the day off...

Looks like I was right! Today is the big day, and there's no invasion. I'm glad that there's no invasion. I'm also happy to dance on the grave of our American intelligence agencies tattered reputations. Again...

You'll never go wrong betting against the American intelligence agencies, especially when it comes to war. Our defense agencies are the most expensive losers in the world. They can't even predict something as massive as an invasion in Ukraine. Aside from intelligence, the rest of the military is garbage, as well. They can't beat a bunch of goat herders in Iraq or Afghanistan, or Korea, or Vietnam, and they belong at the hague for what they did to central and south America. At what point do we cut off their funding and admit that this having a standing military experiment is fucking stupid?

 

[bubblesort]

Looks like Biden made a new prediction! On Thursday (Feb 17), he said that Russia will invade Ukraine in, "several days." He has the courage to make a new prediction, literally the day after his last prediction failed. "Several" is less specific than the last 2 day prediction, so the new prediction is a bit more conservative. I still say he's full of crap.

So how long should we say 'several' means this time? Just so I know when I can point and laugh and say "I TOLD YA SO!" again. I like that game. I'm thinking 4 days is reasonable. Biden made the prediction on Feb 17, which means Russia will invade by Feb 21. That's Monday. So if Russia doesn't invade by Monday, everybody gets to laugh at senile old Joe Biden, all over again. What a clown.

Biden Says Russia Will Attack Within ‘Several Days;’ Blinken Lobbies For Peace at UN

Russians “edge closer to that border,” with troops, combat aircraft, ships, and blood supplies, says Austin at NATO HQ.

www.defenseone.com

 

[Soen Eber]

If the weatherman says the 30 day outlook calls for heavy snow and ice and it doesn't snow a week in, it doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong.

 

[Noodles]

If the weatherman says the 30 day outlook calls for heavy snow and ice and it doesn't snow a week in, it doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong.

I don't understand why the weather prediction is so god awful anymore. Feels like with all the years we have been studying weather, it should really be an exact science that a computer could spit out with 100% accuracy based on everything happening.

 

[Grandma Bates]

As the shelling in Ukraine's Donbas region grows more intense the Russians appear to have prepared in advance to use this totally unrelated situation to their build up to their advantage:

 

[danielravennest]

I don't understand why the weather prediction is so god awful anymore. Feels like with all the years we have been studying weather, it should really be an exact science that a computer could spit out with 100% accuracy based on everything happening.

Weather patterns are a classic example of "chaos theory", where small differences in starting conditions lead to large changes in the result. If you look at the swirly weather patterns across the world, that's "turbulence", which happens randomly. The best we can expect is about 3 day forecasts that are reasonably accurate. After that it gets fuzzy.

 

[Soen Eber]

Weather patterns are a classic example of "chaos theory", where small differences in starting conditions lead to large changes in the result. If you look at the swirly weather patterns across the world, that's "turbulence", which happens randomly. The best we can expect is about 3 day forecasts that are reasonably accurate. After that it gets fuzzy.

I'm pretty sure she was riffing on me who was riffing on Bubblesort's "It didn't happen Wednesday! Biden and the CIA are liars!" post.

 

[Noodles]

I'm pretty sure she was riffing on me who was riffing on Bubblesort's "It didn't happen Wednesday! Biden and the CIA are liars!" post.

Nah, I was actually expressing disgust with weather forcasts being reliably unreliable.

 

[bubblesort]

As the shelling in Ukraine's Donbas region grows more intense the Russians appear to have prepared in advance to use this totally unrelated situation to their build up to their advantage:

I guess I am probably having a bit too much fun with this. It is a military situation, I guess, technically... it's just that every entity in public life that I despise is falling all over themselves, acting like buffoons, over this Ukraine thing, so yeah, I'm gonna make fun of all of them, for as long as this continues, because they deserve it.

If you want to know why I really think they are all full of crap, specifically with regard to the real situation at Ukraine's border right now... it's more than just the lies about Iraq and Afghanistan and all the previous lies they told us, to create pretext to murder hundreds of thousands of people at a time for political expediency.

The fact is, the actual situation in Ukraine does not support Biden's wild assertions of imminent invasion, because Russia physically can't occupy Ukraine. They lack the resources for it. To put it in terms of a Risk game: Saying Russia is going to take Ukraine is like worrying about two soldiers in Kamchatka taking out two canon in Alaska. It's a mathematical possibility, sure, but it's highly improbable. If you go back 6 months or more, Biden himself says that we don't have to worry about Russia's sabre rattling because their economy is too small, so it's not like I'm totally disagreeing with Biden. I'm agreeing with what he was saying before his approval numbers took a dive.

Basically, I agree with this foreign policy magazine article, written by a European studies professor, who probably has a lot less conflicts of interest than the American government, and more serious credentials than the talking heads most people are listening to right now.

Evernote Link to article, titled, "Russia Couldn't Occupy Ukraine if it Wanted to"

Speaking of under-educated talking heads... I didn't mean to just focus on Biden and the CIA being liars. I also think the 24 hour news media are worth laughing at, because they never, ever talk about anything that actually happens, because they don't employ any journalists, any more. Go ahead, turn on CNN, all they talk about all day long are Trump prosecutions that will never happen, or bills that will never pass congress, or this, which is an invasion that will never happen. Their reporting is pure fantasy. They might as well report about the battle of the black gate. The story has the same amount of factual information, but at least the Battle of the Black Gate had orcs.

Everybody progressives despise is mixed up in this: CNN, Biden, the Pentagon, and even Hillary Clinton, who caused this situation by doing nothing, and watching Putin take Crimea, while she was secretary of state.

To be clear, I don't actually want to see an invasion, but I also know an invasion won't happen, so I'm really not worried about it. It's funny because nobody is actually getting hurt. Except maybe Biden's approval ratings, LOL

 

[Sid]

I guess I am probably having a bit too much fun with this. It is a military situation, I guess, technically... it's just that every entity in public life that I despise is falling all over themselves, acting like buffoons, over this Ukraine thing, so yeah, I'm gonna make fun of all of them, for as long as this continues, because they deserve it.

There is very little fun in it, when the war zone will be situated in ones backyard, like for a several EU countries and NATO members. and in fact for whole Western Europe and the Ukraine itself of course.

I have the feeling, when scanning this thread, that the US news shows are drumming things up to the max again, not that I can watch them (yay).
And that Biden keeps announcing an attack might be needed to get enough political backup support in the USA, but it doesn't help very much to ease the situation.

The more subtle diplomatic efforts from Macron and Scholz seem more important, than the behind his desk and in front of TV cameras loud ones from Biden.

 

[Soen Eber]

Basically, I agree with this foreign policy magazine article, written by a European studies professor, who probably has a lot less conflicts of interest than the American government, and more serious credentials than the talking heads most people are listening to right now.

Evernote Link to article, titled, "Russia Couldn't Occupy Ukraine if it Wanted to"

That is a very good article: content-rich and well-reasoned as is the standard for Foreign Policy magazine. I just wish I could swing the price and time for a subscription to it :/

 

[bubblesort]

There is very little fun in it, when the war zone will be situated in ones backyard, like for a several EU countries and NATO members. and in fact for whole Western Europe and the Ukraine itself of course.

I have the feeling, when scanning this thread, that the US news shows are drumming things up to the max again, not that I can watch them (yay).
And that Biden keeps announcing an attack might be needed to get enough political backup support in the USA, but it doesn't help very much to ease the situation.

The more subtle diplomatic efforts from Macron and Scholz seem more important, than the behind his desk and in front of TV cameras loud ones from Biden.

I like Macron's and Scholz's approaches, as well.

Unfortunately, when it comes to president Biden, his dire predictions are coming from concerns about his own domestic approval polls, rather than actual intelligence. His polls are through the floor, because progressives resent him for lying during his campaign, and we're more powerful than before the pandemic (corona killed a lot of old people). The more progressives hurt Biden politically, the louder he cries about Putin, because it's old boomer conventional wisdom in America that war is good for presidential poll numbers. I don't think that's categorically true any more, but that's what the old people believe.

I get the impression that Boris Johnson is playing the same game as Biden. His poll numbers are down, for many reasons, so he's warning that Putin will start, "the biggest war in Europe since 1945, just in terms of sheer scale." As stupid as Biden has been, I don't think he's said anything quite that hyperbolic and out of touch with reality, yet.

 

[Katheryne Helendale]

Looks like Biden made a new prediction! On Thursday (Feb 17), he said that Russia will invade Ukraine in, "several days." He has the courage to make a new prediction, literally the day after his last prediction failed. "Several" is less specific than the last 2 day prediction, so the new prediction is a bit more conservative. I still say he's full of crap.

So how long should we say 'several' means this time? Just so I know when I can point and laugh and say "I TOLD YA SO!" again. I like that game. I'm thinking 4 days is reasonable. Biden made the prediction on Feb 17, which means Russia will invade by Feb 21. That's Monday. So if Russia doesn't invade by Monday, everybody gets to laugh at senile old Joe Biden, all over again. What a clown.

Biden Says Russia Will Attack Within ‘Several Days;’ Blinken Lobbies For Peace at UN

Russians “edge closer to that border,” with troops, combat aircraft, ships, and blood supplies, says Austin at NATO HQ.

www.defenseone.com

"Sir, enemy at three o'clock!"

"Great! That gives me plenty of time for lunch and a quick nap!"

 

[Dakota Tebaldi]

I don't understand why the weather prediction is so god awful anymore. Feels like with all the years we have been studying weather, it should really be an exact science that a computer could spit out with 100% accuracy based on everything happening.

It IS pretty good, like if a meteorologist tells you it's going to rain or snow in four days, you can usually bet on it; even if the spot you're standing on doesn't get wet, somewhere within a couple of miles probably did.

Most of the problem comes from the business end of it. Providers like commercial weather forecasters and TV stations need a gimmick to make themselves "the best source", so they do things like publish 30-day model projections which have always existed but have never been used in the past exactly because they're so unreliable. They act like it's special information they have or can produce that sets them above the rest but it's not really.

Knowing the general limits of weather prediction helps you ignore all the BS; a week out isn't too bad, but past that the real data is just too fuzzy to make reliable predictions with. In the US, the NWS is the best and most honest weather info provider. Yes, if you dig on their website you can find everything, including all that deep raw fuzzy data, but they do a very good job of surfacing only the reliable and useful information for everyday users who just want to know if it's going to rain tomorrow.

 

[Dakota Tebaldi]

If the weatherman says the 30 day outlook calls for heavy snow and ice and it doesn't snow a week in, it doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong.

It's really interesting what the US is doing right now. I don't think they've ever done it before.

Usually when the intelligence agencies get information they tend to hold it pretty close to the vest, only sharing what's needed for the rest of the government/military to prepare for what seems like it's about to happen.

But it's like the script has been flipped and the US is now basically, immediately declassifying and publicly announcing every report they get about Russia's movements and preparations for invading Ukraine. It makes things difficult for Putin because he has an interest in discrediting US intelligence agencies' public statements, but the only way to do that is to keep delaying an invasion in order to "prove them wrong". Saying "I've removed some troops from the border area" only for the CIA to publicly announce "nope, he hasn't actually removed a single troop lol" has got to be aggravating af.

I wonder how long that can last, though. Capturing and annexing all of Ukraine is super important to him personally and I don't know if he can put it off forever.

 

[Grandma Bates]

I guess I am probably having a bit too much fun with this. It is a military situation, I guess, technically... it's just that every entity in public life that I despise is falling all over themselves, acting like buffoons, over this Ukraine thing, so yeah, I'm gonna make fun of all of them, for as long as this continues, because they deserve it.

If you want to know why I really think they are all full of crap, specifically with regard to the real situation at Ukraine's border right now... it's more than just the lies about Iraq and Afghanistan and all the previous lies they told us, to create pretext to murder hundreds of thousands of people at a time for political expediency.

The fact is, the actual situation in Ukraine does not support Biden's wild assertions of imminent invasion, because Russia physically can't occupy Ukraine. They lack the resources for it. To put it in terms of a Risk game: Saying Russia is going to take Ukraine is like worrying about two soldiers in Kamchatka taking out two canon in Alaska. It's a mathematical possibility, sure, but it's highly improbable. If you go back 6 months or more, Biden himself says that we don't have to worry about Russia's sabre rattling because their economy is too small, so it's not like I'm totally disagreeing with Biden. I'm agreeing with what he was saying before his approval numbers took a dive.

Basically, I agree with this foreign policy magazine article, written by a European studies professor, who probably has a lot less conflicts of interest than the American government, and more serious credentials than the talking heads most people are listening to right now.

Evernote Link to article, titled, "Russia Couldn't Occupy Ukraine if it Wanted to"

Speaking of under-educated talking heads... I didn't mean to just focus on Biden and the CIA being liars. I also think the 24 hour news media are worth laughing at, because they never, ever talk about anything that actually happens, because they don't employ any journalists, any more. Go ahead, turn on CNN, all they talk about all day long are Trump prosecutions that will never happen, or bills that will never pass congress, or this, which is an invasion that will never happen. Their reporting is pure fantasy. They might as well report about the battle of the black gate. The story has the same amount of factual information, but at least the Battle of the Black Gate had orcs.

Everybody progressives despise is mixed up in this: CNN, Biden, the Pentagon, and even Hillary Clinton, who caused this situation by doing nothing, and watching Putin take Crimea, while she was secretary of state.

To be clear, I don't actually want to see an invasion, but I also know an invasion won't happen, so I'm really not worried about it. It's funny because nobody is actually getting hurt. Except maybe Biden's approval ratings, LOL

I certainly hope you are right. It should be noted that the article you linked includes a number of options for the Russians that are quite bad and fall just short of a full scale conflict. It also bases its arguments on failures that resulted from a number of different armed confrontations which is evidence itself that people who wield power do not always do so wisely. Having known too many Russians who agonize over the world's perception that they are "weaker" since Soviet times, I do not trust an analysis based on rational and long term self interest. My feelings have been summarized by others:



As for nobody getting hurt, the events in the Donbass region over the last couple days have not been encouraging. The ceasefire violations have been rising steadily over the last several days. The longer this continues the less likely it will be for cooler heads to step in and maintain calm. The West's approach of letting the US provide bellicose warnings while the Europeans present calm alternatives and appeals to the better angels is a gamble that may not appeal to Russia's leadership who does not seem to know the difference between respect and fear.

Edit to add: With respect to Dakota Tebaldi 's comment about the US releasing intelligence information. A large amount of the information that is coming out is from remote sensing sources that are available commercially. This is something that was not available a decade ago and has radically changed the landscape with respect to sharing information. For example, the recent reports about the bridge the Russians built over the Pripyat River was based on commercial satellite imagery.

 

[bubblesort]

I certainly hope you are right. It should be noted that the article you linked includes a number of options for the Russians that are quite bad and fall just short of a full scale conflict. It also bases its arguments on failures that resulted from a number of different armed confrontations which is evidence itself that people who wield power do not always do so wisely. Having known too many Russians who agonize over the world's perception that they are "weaker" since Soviet times, I do not trust an analysis based on rational and long term self interest. My feelings have been summarized by others:



As for nobody getting hurt, the events in the Donbass region over the last couple days have not been encouraging. The ceasefire violations have been rising steadily over the last several days. The longer this continues the less likely it will be for cooler heads to step in and maintain calm. The West's approach of letting the US provide bellicose warnings while the Europeans present calm alternatives and appeals to the better angels is a gamble that may not appeal to Russia's leadership who does not seem to know the difference between respect and fear.

Edit to add: With respect to Dakota Tebaldi 's comment about the US releasing intelligence information. A large amount of the information that is coming out is from remote sensing sources that are available commercially. This is something that was not available a decade ago and has radically changed the landscape with respect to sharing information. For example, the recent reports about the bridge the Russians built over the Pripyat River was based on commercial satellite imagery.

I don't necessarily think Putin is less motivated by emotions. I think he is more motivated by simple economics. Russia simply can't afford to have a blunder in Ukraine the size of America's blunders in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Putin knows it. It's like... think about another disaster, like... Windows ME, for example. Windows ME was terrible, but it didn't put Microsoft under. It was just a dip in stock price, that they eventually recovered from. No big deal. If a company the size of Linden Lab released a disaster the relative size of Windows ME, though, the banks would be auctioning them off for parts by the end of the day. Russia is more like Linden Lab than they are like Microsoft.

This hasn't slowed down Biden's sabre rattling one bit, though. About an hour ago, CNN said that Biden announced that the Russians have, "given the order to invade" Ukraine. I still say he's full of shit, but we will see what happens tonight, I guess. Also, Secretary Blinken has apparently taken to towing Boris Johnson's line, saying that this invasion will be the worst since 1945, which is patently absurd. Even if some kind of stupid invasion did happen (it won't), there's no world in which that scale comparison makes any sense.

I just hope our leaders are smart enough to feel embarrassed. The prospect that they might actually believe their own bullshit is way more terrifying than the prospect tha they are lying through their teeth, again.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

I don't necessarily think Putin is less motivated by emotions. I think he is more motivated by simple economics. Russia simply can't afford to have a blunder in Ukraine the size of America's blunders in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Putin knows it. It's like... think about another disaster, like... Windows ME, for example. Windows ME was terrible, but it didn't put Microsoft under. It was just a dip in stock price, that they eventually recovered from. No big deal. If a company the size of Linden Lab released a disaster the relative size of Windows ME, though, the banks would be auctioning them off for parts by the end of the day. Russia is more like Linden Lab than they are like Microsoft.

This hasn't slowed down Biden's sabre rattling one bit, though. About an hour ago, CNN said that Biden announced that the Russians have, "given the order to invade" Ukraine. I still say he's full of shit, but we will see what happens tonight, I guess. Also, Secretary Blinken has apparently taken to towing Boris Johnson's line, saying that this invasion will be the worst since 1945, which is patently absurd. Even if some kind of stupid invasion did happen (it won't), there's no world in which that scale comparison makes any sense.

I just hope our leaders are smart enough to feel embarrassed. The prospect that they might actually believe their own bullshit is way more terrifying than the prospect tha they are lying through their teeth, again.

So, if Navalny is to be believed [and if my spouse with a background in Soviet era Russian international affairs is correct], then Putin isn't motivated with economics, accept to try and make himself Emperor.

He wants back to take back, one way or another, all of Russia's historical 'lands'. And he's behind not only 1/6, the Canadian 'truckers' protests [with US help], and has even progressives spouting things like how the US installed a Nazi government in the Ukraine in 2014. Like, really, the gullibility to Putin's propaganda because so many people trust their sources of information and don't bother to try and confirm the sources.