I just crunched some numbers for Pennsylvania. Maybe somebody can sanity check me here, but it looks like in 2 weeks we will overrun our available hospital beds more than 3 times over.
According to
this web site, we currently have 1127 diagnosed corona cases. Lets figure out how many undiagnosed cases are out there...
The most recent doubling rate looks to be roughly 2.5.
It takes a week for symptoms to present. You can't be tested for corona without symptoms. I found out the other day from a friend who probably has corona that in PA it takes a week to see results from the test she got at a drive through testing site. So there's a 2 week gap between infection and a positive corona test result.
So lets take out the 15 cases we had in Pennsylvania from 2 weeks ago, because we can assume that everybody they infected has now been diagnosed.
That leaves us with 1112 cases, doubled every 2.5 days, for a total of 5.6 doubles.
That gives me 56,935 undiagnosed Corona infections. Most of them are probably asymptomatic, spreading the disease.
We currently have 13,917 hospital beds. In two weeks, we are projected to have 16,916 beds.
That means that in two weeks we will have around 337% more corona patients than beds. I can't find numbers on how many ventilators we have, but I know we have less ventilators than beds.
These look like Italian numbers.
Their mortality rate is currently around 10%.
That means roughly 5,694 people will die, just in Pennsylvania.
If we had more testing, those numbers would probably be worse.
Stay safe out there. Don't leave the house if you can help it.
ETA: This is with the self quarantine and shelter in place controls from the past two weeks baked into the data.