Coronavirus Updates

Salome

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eta: Watched the interview. Sanders does not take credit for the provisions in the bill, and at several points makes clear that he knows the general outlines of the plan, but has not seen the details (which only people on the negotiation team have so far). He says "we" and not "I" when talking about efforts to get better protections for workers.
According to the acknowledgments going around today it was Michael Bennett that got the improved unemployment benefits into the bill.
 

Kara Spengler

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Be careful getting deliveries. Remember current estimates indicate the virus lives on cardboard approximately 24-48 hours and plastic up to a week. Wash Everything!

Getting our lunch delivery was basically a chore in itself. Go meet them to get it, bring it upstairs, bring it from the bags to inside so the actual bags did not enter the apartment, clean all the plastic containers with alchohol.
 
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danielravennest

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Be careful getting deliveries. Remember current estimates indicate the virus lives on cardboard approximately 24-48 hours and plastic up to a week. Wash Everything!
Here's my procedure from food shopping on Monday: I wore gloves while shopping, and taking the shopping bags inside. Since I don't know who among the store staff or delivery trucks might be contagious, I disposed of the shopping bags immediately, and put the pantry items on the dining table. Then I wiped my gloves with an alcohol-soaked rag and took them off. Then washed my bare hands with soap and water. After 2 days (today), the cardboard stuff went in the pantry (mostly pasta). Plastic containers will sit longer (I read 3 days for plastic, do you have a source for a week?).

Refrigerator items I had to put in the fridge right away (mostly meats), but I haven't seen any information on virus survival while refrigerated. So when those items come out, they get wiped down with alcohol before I open the package (they are sealed plastic).

For deliveries to your door, the same logic applies to the supply chain. Everyone from the delivery person back to the warehouse are unknowns. If possible, just park the box and contents until enough time has passed. I discovered that old pill bottles are airtight, and my soaked rag has stayed wet for over a week. But any airtight container will do. Just find some rag material (I used old t-shirt fabric from my rag box), pour in enough alcohol to soak it, and close it up. You can then pull it out to wipe whatever you need to, then put it back for next use. The rag is self-sanitizing, so you can use it over and over, occasionally adding alcohol if its getting dry.

Note that regular soap, dish-washing detergent, and probably laundry detergent will kill the virus. They break up the fatty coating of the virus. So will anything with sodium hypochlorite, the active ingredient in bleach. That works differently. It breaks down anything organic chemically, including your skin at full concentration, so wear gloves. Hospitals use bleach solutions to disinfect, but it shouldn't be used on some surfaces, and always diluted. Read the label.
 
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bubblesort

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I just crunched some numbers for Pennsylvania. Maybe somebody can sanity check me here, but it looks like in 2 weeks we will overrun our available hospital beds more than 3 times over.

According to this web site, we currently have 1127 diagnosed corona cases. Lets figure out how many undiagnosed cases are out there...

The most recent doubling rate looks to be roughly 2.5.

It takes a week for symptoms to present. You can't be tested for corona without symptoms. I found out the other day from a friend who probably has corona that in PA it takes a week to see results from the test she got at a drive through testing site. So there's a 2 week gap between infection and a positive corona test result.

So lets take out the 15 cases we had in Pennsylvania from 2 weeks ago, because we can assume that everybody they infected has now been diagnosed.

That leaves us with 1112 cases, doubled every 2.5 days, for a total of 5.6 doubles.

That gives me 56,935 undiagnosed Corona infections. Most of them are probably asymptomatic, spreading the disease.

We currently have 13,917 hospital beds. In two weeks, we are projected to have 16,916 beds.

That means that in two weeks we will have around 337% more corona patients than beds. I can't find numbers on how many ventilators we have, but I know we have less ventilators than beds.

These look like Italian numbers. Their mortality rate is currently around 10%.

That means roughly 5,694 people will die, just in Pennsylvania.

If we had more testing, those numbers would probably be worse.

Stay safe out there. Don't leave the house if you can help it.

ETA: This is with the self quarantine and shelter in place controls from the past two weeks baked into the data.
 

Salome

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Plastic containers will sit longer (I read 3 days for plastic, do you have a source for a week?).
I will see if I can find it, but I’m pretty sure it was one of the MedCram updates. I know the paper all the news outlets quote from said three days on plastic, but one of the updates I watched about a week ago (I think?) noted that a group of researchers had found one of the strains survived longer (up to 6 days) on plastic and stainless steel. I’m not sure if that’s outdated. But when passing on info, I err on the side of caution.

ETA: And just in case, it’s worth noting that surface traces were found on cruise ships up to 17 days after passengers had disembarked.

A high proportion of asymptomatic infections could partially explain the high attack rate among cruise ship passengers and crew. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted (Takuya Yamagishi, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, personal communication, 2020).
 
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eku zhong

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Kamilah Hauptmann

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Big Mac Index might help with relative spending power.



Japan appears to sit at about 80% of the Euro Area. So back of the napkin math means 82 euro in Japan might mean ~100 euro in Europe. Paid under the table. in a bio hazard.