#BYEDON 2020 - The End Better Fucking Be Near

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Innula Zenovka

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Trump says a great many things, though, some of which I am sure he believes at the time he says them, but they don't all turn out to be true.

He has no choice but to tease people with the prospect he'll run -- both his influence over the Republican party and much of his income depend, at least for the time being, on there being a serious possibility of his announcing his candidacy at some point in the future, and the Republicans have no choice but to go along with that, at least for now.

What may or may not happen in two years' time is completely unpredictable -- surely if the last five or six years have taught us anything, they're taught us that.

Trump, assuming he's still alive and not bankrupt, tied up in court or otherwise engaged, will do as he's always done -- what he thinks is in his best interests at the time he's forced to take a decision, even if it's incomprehensible to everyone else and he regrets taking it a day or so later, but until that happens, no one, including him, has any idea what it'll be be.
 
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bubblesort

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Trump says a great many things, though, some of which I am sure he believes at the time he says them, but they don't all turn out to be true.

He has no choice but to tease people with the prospect he'll run -- both his influence over the Republican party and much of his income depend, at least for the time being, on there being a serious possibility of his announcing his candidacy at some point in the future, and the Republicans have no choice but to go along with that, at least for now.

What may or may not happen in two years' time is completely unpredictable -- surely if the last five or six years have taught us anything, they're taught us that.

Trump, assuming he's still alive and not bankrupt, tied up in court or otherwise engaged, will do as he's always done -- what he thinks is in his best interests at the time he's forced to take a decision, even if it's incomprehensible to everyone else and he regrets taking it a day or so later, but until that happens, no one, including him, has any idea what it'll be be.
I think he will run. I doubt he will win, but... let me play devil's advocate and say he can. How can he possibly win?

Trump is absolutely evil, but he's still the most effective public speaker in the country right now. If only somebody who was benevolent could marshal public support like Trump, the world would be a much better place. I still see Trump booths at the local flea markets. So at the very least, he can at least out-talk Biden at stump speeches and debates. The law has no way to stop him. Even if we convict him for Jan 6, he can still run from a prison cell. Our constitution was deliberately written to allow us to elect a felon as our president. A felon can't vote, but they can run. As far as media goes... Trump doesn't have his old Twitter and Facebook presence, but maybe he doesn't need it. He can still suck the air out of the media cycle by just doing an interview, or posting on his own web site. The idiot pundits on the 24/7 news channels will boost him all day long, on both sides of the aisle (CNN and Fox both love covering him).

I would love to see him run and lose, to humiliate him and the Republican party, and discredit his ideas, but I don't see him losing if we don't treat him as a serious threat.
 

Innula Zenovka

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I think he will run. I doubt he will win, but... let me play devil's advocate and say he can. How can he possibly win?

Trump is absolutely evil, but he's still the most effective public speaker in the country right now. If only somebody who was benevolent could marshal public support like Trump, the world would be a much better place. I still see Trump booths at the local flea markets. So at the very least, he can at least out-talk Biden at stump speeches and debates. The law has no way to stop him. Even if we convict him for Jan 6, he can still run from a prison cell. Our constitution was deliberately written to allow us to elect a felon as our president. A felon can't vote, but they can run. As far as media goes... Trump doesn't have his old Twitter and Facebook presence, but maybe he doesn't need it. He can still suck the air out of the media cycle by just doing an interview, or posting on his own web site. The idiot pundits on the 24/7 news channels will boost him all day long, on both sides of the aisle (CNN and Fox both love covering him).

I would love to see him run and lose, to humiliate him and the Republican party, and discredit his ideas, but I don't see him losing if we don't treat him as a serious threat.
You doubtless know what's happening in your own country better than do I, but considering a majority of Americans who identify as Republicans still seem to believe, despite everything, that the last presidential election was marred by widespread vote-rigging on behalf the the Democrats, and a considerable number believe it was stolen and that Trump actually won.

Add to that attempts currently being made by Republican legislatures in many states both to disenfranchise potential Democratic voters, and to place obstacles in the way of those who are able to register to vote, and the steps they are also taking to bring the actual counting under the control of politically-partisan officials rather than elected public servants, and the preparations that are doubtless already being made to mount somewhat less insane and ad-hoc challenges, and add to that the fact there was an attempted insurrection by Trump's supporters last January which the Republican Party can't find it in itself to condemn because it's simply not interested in the democratic process except when it suits them, and I'm extremely concerned about what happens in 2024, regardless of how the vote goes.

Come on, if he runs and loses, what makes you think he and his supporters will be any more willing to accept defeat than they are prepared to accept they lost last year?
 

Katheryne Helendale

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Trump may be ineligible to run, due to the insurrection clause in the 14th Amendment, and this law:
They need to convict him first. And so far, nobody has shown they possess the intestinal fortitude to bring him up on charges, much less convict him.
 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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Ever heared about the Alliance of Democracies? Nope? Time to change that!

It's a non profit organization founded back in 2017 by former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. It's mission: uniting the world democracies.

To reach that goal the AoD makes a yearly poll in many countries, asking people about their opinion about democracies. It's called the Democracy Perception Index, sub title: "The world’s largest annual study on how people perceive democracy." They've asked 53000 people from 53 different countries including China, India, Saudi Arabia and all the Western Democracies as well.

Looking into that document give some quite interesting insights, as:
* the USA are viewed as bigger threat to democracy than either China or Russia (p. 28).
* the people of Ukraine have a bigger fear that elections might be manipulated than the Russians.
* "Democracy is not important" - the top country agreeing to that are the Japanese with whopping 62%
* The mainland Chinese do considerer their democracy as much more democratic than most other countries - exception is Scandinavia, who have high approval ratings

And much more, really interesing stuff.
 

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