Brexit.

[Kara Spengler]

To avoid the no-deal Brexit that just about every country in the world, let alone the EU, wants to avoid.
Where do you get these odds from? There's no precedent for this situation, after all, and, as I said, "no deal" is something the EU wants to avoid almost as much as does the UK.

From the fact that some people are saying it will happen and others not? I just put 50/50 as a shorthand for 'maybe yes/maybe no' but was more making the second half of the point: that a second extension is unlikely but good luck convincing a politician of that.

 

[detrius]

FFS, no.

No more negotiations, no deadline shifts. Not by a single day.

All this uncertainty puts huge amounts of stress on all of Europe's economy, its governments and everybody's bank accounts.

Britain just wasted two years of everyone's time and money on this completely avoidable mess and yet, there are still people who seem to think it has some sort of goodwill credit left - like that useless prick, Jeremy "shit-for-brains" Corbyn.

No, you don't havy any credit left. No more "surely, the EU will grant us clemency". We're past this, fuck your delusions.

The Republic of Ireland is more important than the UK.
The economic situation of the providence of Cadiz in Spain is more important the the UK.
Even fucking Volkswagen matters more than the fucking UK.

That was the deal, you rejected it, now it's time for the EU to focus on the needs of its remaining member states.

The UK is now officially a burden and a drain to European resources.

Like a thirty-something-years-old man-child living in the basement of his parents' house.

If it wants to negotiate a delay, it needs to pull a ticket and move to the back of the line.

By now, I'm not even sure I want the British government to cancel Brexit, because all those extremists who voted for it are still there. If the apocalypse they gleefully campaigned for gets canceled, they'll become even more radical and it won't take long before the first bombs go off. I'd rather have these British Taliban terrorize London instead of Paris.

Britain has two options: either it finally fucks off and crashes out without a deal by March 29th or it cancels Brexit.

And if Brexit gets canceled, I don't want to hear anything about the UK leaving the EU for at least the next decade. Heck I even think the UK should make some kind of safety deposit, because I don't thrust that fickle British government to keep its word.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Since the process has never been used before, I don't think anyone has much idea of what's going to happen in practice.

If the UK and EU fail to reach an agreement on the withdrawal deal by March 2019, they can decide to continue talks and extend the two-year period. It would, however, require both sides to want to continue talks; for the EU, that would mean agreement by all 27 member states. It is not possible for the UK to unilaterally extend the two-year Article 50 period.

If a withdrawal agreement is reached and ratified by March 2019, it could include provisions for a transitional period, or implementation phase, which would extend the negotiating period for the future relationship. It would provide time for negotiations on the future UK-EU relationship to continue before substantive change in the UK’s status takes place.

The nature of any transition provision or extension is unclear. As no-one has triggered Article 50 and exited the EU before, there is no precedent for how timelines can be extended or how they will adapt if the UK’s Prime Minister changes.

Negotiating timeline: threats and options for extension

I'd say that the EU27's decision on any request for more time will presumably depend on the specific nature of the request and is likely to be guided by rational self-interest (unlike the British government's attitude over the last three years).

The Republic of Ireland is more important than the UK.
The economic situation of the providence of Cadiz in Spain is more important the the UK.
Even fucking Volkswagen matters more than the fucking UK.

I don't know about Cadiz, but certainly a no-deal Brexit would be very bad news for Volkswagen (and other EU manufacturers who either sell to or buy from the UK) and pretty disastrous for the Republic of Ireland, would it not?

 

[Sid]

At this point the EU should take a strong and clear position in this matter now IMHO:
It is either this deal, no deal or no Brexit on March 29. No negotiations what so ever.
Postponing the date is only an option in case of new general elections in the UK or a new referendum on the matter.
We need an answer before <insert deadline here> otherwise it is no deal.

As Detrius has indicated above, the UK has wasted enough of the time and money from the remaining 27 countries.
UK gov's shameless misguidance is screaming for a tough reaction from the EU.
May and her government must have known long time that their efforts were leading nowhere. I mean losing with 230 votes.

The longer I think about it the more furious I get.

 

[detrius]

I don't know about Cadiz, but certainly a no-deal Brexit would be very bad news for Volkswagen (and other EU manufacturers who either sell to or buy from the UK) and pretty disastrous for the Republic of Ireland, would it not?

Yes, and as I've said, you can cancel it.

But there's no third option, there's nothing more to negotiate. And none of the other governments in the EU are going to let their economic interests being taken hostage by their incompetent British counterpart. The way the stuck together during the negotiations should have made that point clear by now.

What would even be the point of granting an extension? At the end of the day, you'd still only have two choices: no deal or no Brexit.

The EU is under no obligation to grant the UK more leniency - to the contrary: your country owes the rest of us clarity on this issue and an end to the farce that's going on with your government.


March 29, not a single day longer.


ETA: Cadiz is the Spanish province neighbouring Gibraltar. There are thousands of people crossing the border on a daily basis because they live in one but work in the other.

 

[Luisa Land]

I'd say that the EU27's decision on any request for more time will presumably depend on the specific nature of the request and is likely to be guided by rational self-interest (unlike the British government's attitude over the last three years).

Yes it is in the interest of all to avoid a crashing without deal.

And this can only be avoided if instead of foment emotions, reason will come back to be the basis of decisions and acts.
Sure at the moment mainly at the british side seems there are a lot of ppl who are not approachable for rational arguments and discussions. I dont know how high the percentage of those people is in Britain. But I know there are a lot of others, who are able and willing to find a solution in the interest of all.

And we should consider that also the most other EU-Countries have their share of ppl who follow simple slogans of populists, which will not solve any problem of the modern world, but create additional ones.
So hopefully the more reasonable ppl in europe will find a way to secure what Europe has achieved in the last decades and maybe also improve it.
and not going back to a thinking of nationalism.

 

[Sid]

I dont know how high the percentage of those people is in Britain. But I know there are a lot of others, who are able and willing to find a solution in the interest of all.
.

I've been watching BBC world News for hours yesterday and it was a coming and going of MP that were interviewed.
It looks like if many of them have their constituency on the backside of the moon. It was at times like watching a freaking clown show.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

It looks even more like the only viable option is a new referendum between the current deal, however unloved, and remain. And the EU would in all likelihood grant an extension on that basis, But a general election in which neither of the two main parties have a clear position on Brexit, and many individual members are backing options that are unacceptable to the EU (hard Brexit or some flavor of renegotiation) would not help anything. Especially if the poll numbers hold and May gets a majority that is still not unified on their Brexit demands.

 

[OrinB]

To avoid the no-deal Brexit that just about every country in the world, let alone the EU, wants to avoid.
Where do you get these odds from?

That's the goal! From what i've heard, the EU won't accept that as a valid reason, as they have already agreed a deal to thatgoal. WE have to come up with a better option to make the extension negotiations plausible otherwise what's the point of the extension?

 

[Luisa Land]

british parliament sets priorities:
or "Not all European standards are bad."

"Britain threatens to sink into chaos following the rejection of the Brexit Treaty in parliament, but the people's representatives set priorities: even before the vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Theresa May on Wednesday evening, the parliamentarians deal with the height of letter slots in front doors.

Conservative MP Vicky Ford, who lodged the motion in the House of Commons, said there was "great support" for her draft law amending door building regulations. It is also a question of "health and safety" for postmen.

The constant stooping not only leads to back pain, but also create stress. Ford emphasized: "Not all European standards are bad." For example, the EU stipulates a minimum height of 70 centimeters for letter slots in doors"

just found , source german "SpiegelOnline" google translate

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

I've been watching BBC world News for hours yesterday and it was a coming and going of MP that were interviewed.
It looks like if many of them have their constituency on the backside of the moon. It was at times like watching a freaking clown show.

Go smell some damned tulips; you're poisoning your brain with the BBC right now. (Unless it's nature documentaries on BBC Earth.)

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Egyptian museum claims dibs on Tower of London after UK falls into post-Brexit turmoil

The Museum expects that, within a few short months, priceless British artifacts ranging from the Crown of Queen Elizabeth II to Prime Minister May’s signed copy of the Brexit deal will need to be protected from roaming football hooligans and therefore placed in foreign museum for centuries to come.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

That's the goal! From what i've heard, the EU won't accept that as a valid reason, as they have already agreed a deal to thatgoal. WE have to come up with a better option to make the extension negotiations plausible otherwise what's the point of the extension?

Everyone seems to be agreed that In the (to my mind somewhat improbable) event that Jeremy Corbyn gets his General Election and Labour go on to form the next government, the EU 27 would be minded to grant an extension to A50 even though, going by what some members of the shadow cabinet have said recently, Corbyn's goals for the negotiation would be as impossible as anything Boris Johnson ever dreamed up.

If the EU27 would be prepared to grant an extension for what would clearly be a waste of time -- since eventually Corbyn would have to come back to Parliament with a very different Withdrawal Agreement from what he was seeking --- why should they not be minded to grant an extension with a view not to prolonging negotiations but to giving the UK time to decide how best to resolve the situation, thus avoiding the no-deal outcome that no sane person wants?

I don't expect any request for an extension to come immediately -- first I expect the EU 27 to make it clear, yet again, that the Withdrawal Agreement isn't up for renegotiation, unless maybe the "red lines" change dramatically, though the the UK's subsequent relationship with the EU would be, and to wait for that to get through the heads of the Conservative Brexiteers.

Eventually, I hope it's going to become clear to Jeremy Corbyn that he's not going to get his election and to the Conservatives that they're not going to be able to renegotiate anything in the WA, and that the only sane choices are ratify the WA or Remain. However, there's no parliamentary majority for either option, so the only way out of the impasse is to organise a referendum to resolve the issue. That would mean passing legislation to give force to the WA if confirmed by a referendum and otherwise cancel A50.

But although that's the only workable solution I can see to this mess, it's going to take time for the two main parties to come round to accepting that. And then the necessary legislation and other arrangements are going to take the best part of a year to set up. However, the disadvantages of delaying to enable that to happen are nowhere near as great as those associated with crashing out with no deal, which would be seriously bad news not just for the UK but for the EU and the rest of the world economy.

Delay, not to allow more time-wasting negotiations but to give the UK time to come to its senses, seems to me by far the least bad option for everyone.

 

[Khamon]

I love the way he shouts "division clear the lobby" but that tie, whoa, Sweeney wins today's tie award.

 

[Khamon]

306 Aye and 325 No, the Nos have it, barely, and the Government is intact.

 

[Porsupah Ree]

306 Aye and 325 No, the Nos have it, barely, and the Government is intact.

In much the same way as your average late-stage zombie..

 

[Veritable Quandry]

Since all this is futile, I suggest a trade. If we let Parliament work on our budget, Congress can have a crack at Brexit.

There is a slight chance that you'll end up with a wall down the middle of the English Channel, but at least that would help with employment.

eta: Even your Conservatives would budget more for healthcare than our Republicans, so I could probably live with it.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Germany and France have signalled their willingness to delay Brexit as Michel Barnier offered to renegotiate with Theresa May should she be able to build a majority with Labour in favour of a closer relationship with the EU.

EU ambassadors also discussed the issue for the first time at a meeting in Brussels, as the member states attempted to plot out their terms for extending the negotiating time beyond 29 March.

With Downing Street opening cross-party talks after the government’s historic defeat, EU politicians and officials were looking ahead in the event that the prime minister finds a majority in the Commons for a fresh approach.

Peter Altmaier, Germany’s finance minister, suggested he would see it “as a reasonable request” if the UK wanted an extension. Nathalie Loiseau, France’s EU affairs minister, confirmed that a delay would be possible in the right context.

A similar argument was made by Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, during a late-night private meeting with senior members of the European parliament in the hours immediately after the Commons vote. The EU has previously suggested that only a general election or second referendum could persuade them to delay Brexit.

Germany and France signal willingness to delay Brexit

ETA: The Times -- Brexit: EU ready to delay withdrawal until next year

 

[Veritable Quandry]

306 Aye and 325 No, the Nos have it, barely, and the Government is intact.

The motion was premature. Might have had a better chance after May presents her Option B next week. Tory backbench and now Corbyn have managed to strengthen May's position even if she still doesn't have any options.

 

[Porsupah Ree]

We've all been wondering just how a referendum could be initiated; here's one option.

‘This obscure law could save us from May's Brexit deadlock’

Not rediscovered until recently as a substantive assertion of parliamentary sovereignty (as against its traditional ceremonial role), the "Humble Address" is a mechanism under which a House of Parliament can make its desires and opinions known to the Crown. It cannot, however, be moved in relation to any legislation.

Addresses have – in the words of Erskine May, the authoritative guide to Parliamentary procedure – historically comprised “every matter of foreign or domestic policy”. The mechanism has recently been used with dramatic effect, first to compel the release of economic assessments relating to Brexit and then to force the publication of the attorney-general’s full legal advice on the Irish backstop. In the latter case, the speaker accepted the proposition that for the government to refuse to comply with a Humble Address would be a contempt of parliament, at which point the government caved in.