Brexit.

[Arkady Arkright]

I see the DUP are staying 'bought & paid for' - "The DUP's Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson says his party will support the prime minister in tomorrow's no confidence vote." - Obviously Jeremy hasn't offered them enough cash yet...

OTOH, perhaps they could get back into running their own province, the job they're *actually* elected and being paid for.

 

[Luisa Land]

ok... and now?
Who is able to lead the UK out of this mess?

Corbyn? Even if labour wins new General Elections (stm opinion polls see them behind the Conservatives, but of course that can change)
His statements today in british Parliament .He will go to the EU and negotiate a better deal
How will that happen?
More Unicorns
His credo is "We cant stop Brexit"
So even if reports are true, that Corbyn's support in his own party is crumbling. Labour might be absorbed by inner fights for a new stance and maybe a new leadership for the next time..

 

[Arkady Arkright]

Kier Starmer would be acceptable to me.

 

[Tigger]

Kier Starmer, I could vote for Lammy too

 

[Tigger]

 

[Luisa Land]

well it is expected, that the Non-confidence-vote will be rejected tomorrow..
so we have to wait for the Plan B of the present PM... but have not found any information that creates hope, that the plan could offer any solution

Meanwhile the view of the EU is, that the danger for an exit without deal is increasing high

 

[Tigger]

With May's deal dead there are two possible outcomes left, no deal, no brexit. This was a necessary step to put no brexit back on the table. The chance of no deal has increased, but so has the chance of cancelling the entire mess.

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

Pull the fucking ripcord. You don't need a second fucking referendum because the first was advisory and is now seen to be bad advice.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Pull the fucking ripcord. You don't need a second fucking referendum because the first was advisory and is now seen to be bad advice.

I am pretty convinced that this is hardly possible, because the power of triggering of A50 back then in 2017 was transfered by the House of Commons to the prime minister: European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill: Commons stages - News from Parliament

So I am unsure that May could withdraw this all on her own without needing the backing of the parliament.

And if you are just looking at the unholy mess and divide between remainers and brexiteers, and there again soft/hard, within this parliament, it is quite unlikely that you are going to find the needed majority for a withdrawal at the moment.

Of course the could hand back over the question to the people, which would mean in the end admitting the own incompetence in handling the first referendum. But then again I am pretty sure, that most Brits nowadays already view most of their politicians as incompetent fools, so there would not be much harm done by choosing that way.

Or you could go for general elections in the hope that the EU might extend the period before A50 comes into action, where the outcome is even more unpredictable.

 

[danielravennest]

With May's deal dead there are two possible outcomes left, no deal, no brexit. This was a necessary step to put no brexit back on the table. The chance of no deal has increased, but so has the chance of cancelling the entire mess.

News from the future: Dateline 2021 - Britain applies for EU membership after disastrous two years.

 

[Porsupah Ree]

So, what are everyone's prognostications regarding May's response, due within three Parliamentary business days? (Would this actually mean Friday?)

Much as I'd love her (and Corbyn) to come clean about the disaster that Brexit would be, and withdrawing A50, I suspect that's as likely as Rees-Mogg defecting to the Greens. My completely wild-assed guess is she'll propose trying to go back to Brussels for another deal, even if nonesuch is available, if only to help run out the clock.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Since the scale of May's defeat makes it very clear that the Withdrawal Agreement can't pass, and since May has apparently suggested that she's now (somewhat belatedly, some might say) prepared to talk to the Opposition about a more bipartisan approach, I think the first order of business has to be to go back to Brussels to ask for more time while the UK tries to sort out what on earth to do next.

Since the EU certainly don't want the UK to crash out without a deal, I think that request will probably be met with quite sympathetically. It may be that both party leaders will be able to agree a much softer Brexit -- without a lot of the problematic red lines -- that they could hope to sell to their respective parties, but I think one way or the other, a second referendum will have to be part of the final decision-making process, possibly a binding referendum which either ratifies the soft Brexit agreement or opts to Remain and automatically cancels A50 irrevocably.

That, I think, would provide a route to a solution the EU and the UK government and opposition could live with, and would probably end up with the second referendum cancelling Brexit completely.

But first things first -- May has to ask the EU for more time and to pass legislation back home that stops the clock on the EU (Withdrawal) Act. And I think that when that happens, the chances of Brexit actually happening go way, way down.

 

[Kara Spengler]

May's lost by 230 votes. That is a massive defeat.

eta.

And now Corbyn has gone for the no confidence vote.

Now this farce of some people thinking it will pass is over with and they can move things forward at least.

 

[Tigger]

Just watch this from one of the high vis jacket brigade. If you can make any sense of what his view is please explain it to me. I really don't know how she can actually try to talk to someone with this level of lunacy.

 

[Sid]

The tricky part is, that the EU has upcoming elections this year for the EU parliament. And as always, politicians in every democracy are at times more concerned about their own job security after the elections, than the real problems on their political plate.
This will make that all kinds of political parties and prominent MP's throughout Europe will mingle in the discussion when campagning time starts and make it harder for the EU to cope smoothly with the Brexit failure matter.
I think a hard Brexit has come a lot closer yesterday evening and maybe even turbulent times in the remaining EU, when Brexit becomes an election topic.

 

[OrinB]

HAHAHAHAHAHA... no really... LMFAO... i wish i cared more... FFS HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!

/rant over

 

[OrinB]

Since the scale of May's defeat makes it very clear that the Withdrawal Agreement can't pass, and since May has apparently suggested that she's now (somewhat belatedly, some might say) prepared to talk to the Opposition about a more bipartisan approach, I think the first order of business has to be to go back to Brussels to ask for more time while the UK tries to sort out what on earth to do next.

Since the EU certainly don't want the UK to crash out without a deal, I think that request will probably be met with quite sympathetically. It may be that both party leaders will be able to agree a much softer Brexit -- without a lot of the problematic red lines -- that they could hope to sell to their respective parties, but I think one way or the other, a second referendum will have to be part of the final decision-making process, possibly a binding referendum which either ratifies the soft Brexit agreement or opts to Remain and automatically cancels A50 irrevocably.

That, I think, would provide a route to a solution the EU and the UK government and opposition could live with, and would probably end up with the second referendum cancelling Brexit completely.

But first things first -- May has to ask the EU for more time and to pass legislation back home that stops the clock on the EU (Withdrawal) Act. And I think that when that happens, the chances of Brexit actually happening go way, way down.

We still don't know what we actually want! I have no doubt the EU will tell us to fuck off even about asking for more time. More time for what? TO what end? With what agenda? We cannot ask for more time without knowing EXACTLY what we want! The fuckers in our government haven't thought this through in any shape or fomr. Theresa May's beligerant "well you asked for it... here it fucking is.." attitude is coming to a head. In some ways this is the plan she always wanted to invoke to prove how much of a STUPID, idiotic plan it was for David Cameron to even suggest we have a referendum in the first place.

I for one, feel the only option we have now is to pull out of article 50. Rethink and have a proper plan before we invoke article 50. WE HAD NO NEGOTIATION PLAN!

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

I am pretty sure if general elections would be held soon, that moving the 29. of March to a later date is quite likely and possible from the EU's side. But they for sure won't give them let's say another year after the new government has been formed for them to making their mind up, nor go back to negotiating everything again.

They would expect the newly formed government for sure to come quickly to terms what they want, and what not. And I am pretty convinced this kind of extension will be possible only one time.

 

[Kara Spengler]

I am pretty sure if general elections would be held soon, that moving the 29. of March to a later date is quite likely and possible from the EU's side. But they for sure won't give them let's say another year after the new government has been formed for them to making their mind up, nor go back to negotiating everything again.

They would expect the newly formed government for sure to come quickly to terms what they want, and what not. And I am pretty convinced this kind of extension will be possible only one time.

Yes, I give the odds about 50/50 on getting an extension of March 29. The odds of a second extension are pretty close to zero though.

The annoying thing is politicians will 'work' under the assumption that they will get that second extension right up until they do not though.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

More time for what? TO what end?

To avoid the no-deal Brexit that just about every country in the world, let alone the EU, wants to avoid.

Yes, I give the odds about 50/50 on getting an extension of March 29. The odds of a second extension are pretty close to zero though.

Where do you get these odds from? There's no precedent for this situation, after all, and, as I said, "no deal" is something the EU wants to avoid almost as much as does the UK.