Brexit.

Sid

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Yup, mister Schneider was right: More to come:


Analysis by the London School of Economics and UK in a Changing Europe says “a no-deal Brexit would represent a further major shock to a UK economy” with a “major set of changes” to the economic relationship with the country’s largest trading partner.
“Our modelling with LSE of the impact of a no-deal Brexit suggests that the total cost to the UK economy over the longer term will be two to three times as large as that implied by the Bank of England’s forecast for the impact of Covid-19,” says the report.
“In the long run, Brexit is likely to be more significant” depressing the country’s economic output over 20 years, says the report, titled 'What would no deal mean?
20 years??? 😢
 
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Aribeth Zelin

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I'm so happy to see Frankfurt is doing well. I lived there as a very small child, and I have vague memories still.

Otherwise, I don't know whether to laugh that at least the US isn't the only ones where the inmates are running the asylum, or cry because we're not the only ones in this boat, and if everyone else is, who is going to save the day, as it were?
 

Innula Zenovka

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Yup, mister Schneider was right: More to come:






20 years??? 😢
I'm a bit mistrustful of anyone's attempts to forecast what things are going to be like in 20 years' time, except those of us who're still alive to see them will be 20 years older, since the world today was as unimaginable in 2020 as was the world of 2000 in 1980, and so on, and Covid-19 and Brexit both seem bound to have at least as far reaching and unpredicatable effects on the UK, EU and world economies as anything that's happened in my lifetime, such as the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the USSR.

But yes, a no-deal Brexit would be a catastrophe. We'll just have to see whether Johnson's bluffing, and if he is -- which I think is the case -- if he and Dominic Cummings can manage not to trip over their own feet and take everyone over the edge with them.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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Thread:


I'm not trying to follow news about the negotiations, but this does tend to support my view that a lot of Johnson's theatrics are intended to prepare his supporters to accept a deal that many of them are bound to dislike because of its lack of unicorns.

Evernote link because paywall
 
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Sid

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What?
No unicorns?
But.... but.....
 
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Veritable Quandry

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Brexit travel permits designed to avoid 7,000-lorry jams come January depend on software that won't be finished till April

Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove told the House of Commons this week: "That system has been developed, it's being shared with business and we want to make sure that people use a relatively simple process in order to get what will become known as a 'Kent Access Permit', which means that they can then proceed smoothly through Kent."

But KAPs, as they have become known, would only be issued to truck drivers who get a green or amber rating from the online Smart Freight system, which the government has yet to introduce.
 

Arkady Arkright

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Beebo Brink said: "Democracies have been lost by relying on the belief that "he can't do that" because there are laws and regulations against it. ... is proof that rule of law is growing increasingly irrelevant to any outcome."

The UK is rapidly heading down the same hole...

12 pages of new laws, with heavy punishments, came into force yesterday - little of which had been even heard-of by either house of parliament.
Very right-wing Boris-supporters being drafted into into major positions in media and communications ( BBC Chairman, head of OFCOM).
Students being confined to their room in university accomodation, with security heavies and police patrolling the corridors (some of those detained students received no food for 2 days, but I daresay that was incompetence rather than malice).

And hypocrisy by the bucketload - it was only after an outcry that the bars in parliament will be closing at the same time as pubs and bars in the rest of the country, there's an official campaign to get other countries to 'obey the rule of law' when we've already said we're going to break international treaties, etc. etc...

The list is endless - I once again repeat that "we're fucked"...
 
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Innula Zenovka

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Beebo Brink said: "Democracies have been lost by relying on the belief that "he can't do that" because there are laws and regulations against it. ... is proof that rule of law is growing increasingly irrelevant to any outcome."

The UK is rapidly heading down the same hole...

12 pages of new laws, with heavy punishments, came into force yesterday - little of which had been even heard-of by either house of parliament.
Very right-wing Boris-supporters being drafted into into major positions in media and communications ( BBC Chairman, head of OFCOM).
Students being confined to their room in university accomodation, with security heavies and police patrolling the corridors (some of those detained students received no food for 2 days, but I daresay that was incompetence rather than malice).

And hypocrisy by the bucketload - it was only after an outcry that the bars in parliament will be closing at the same time as pubs and bars in the rest of the country, there's an official campaign to get other countries to 'obey the rule of law' when we've already said we're going to break international treaties, etc. etc...

The list is endless - I once again repeat that "we're fucked"...


Asked to clarify how the rules would affect millions of households in the north-east, Keegan was unable to answer.

She told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I’m sorry I can’t clarify that. I don’t know the answer to that question but I’m sure they can find out the answer to that question.”

Pressed on how people are meant to keep up to date with the latest restrictions when ministers cannot, she added: “I’m sorry I can’t answer that question. I’m sure there are many people who could. I don’t represent the north east.”
 

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Innula Zenovka

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I'm not so sure about that one. If you look at the contentious guidance, you'll see it refers to materials produced by extremist groups, not to the content of those materials:


Many organisations actively promote external resources to schools. You should assess all resources carefully to ensure they are age appropriate, meet the outcome of the relevant part of the curriculum, and are in line with your school’s legal duties in relation to impartiality.

Schools should not under any circumstances use resources produced by organisations that take extreme political stances on matters. This is the case even if the material itself is not extreme, as the use of it could imply endorsement or support of the organisation. Examples of extreme political stances include, but are not limited to:
  • a publicly stated desire to abolish or overthrow democracy, capitalism, or to end free and fair elections
  • opposition to the right of freedom of speech, freedom of association, freedom of assembly or freedom of religion and conscience
  • the use or endorsement of racist, including antisemitic, language or communications
  • the encouragement or endorsement of illegal activity
  • a failure to condemn illegal activities done in their name or in support of their cause, particularly violent actions against people or property
(my emphasis).

The guidance catches the publishers of the material, not its content, or so it seems to me, so a lot of the criticism I've read seems misguided.
 

Argent Stonecutter

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Schools should not under any circumstances use resources produced by organisations that take extreme political stances on matters.
The guidance catches the publishers of the material, not its content, or so it seems to me, so a lot of the criticism I've read seems misguided.
Who gets to define what an "extreme political stance" is?
 

Innula Zenovka

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Who gets to define what an "extreme political stance" is?
The guidance I quoted gives examples, but ultimately I guess it's either the Department for Education or OFSTED -- I'm not familiar with the decision-making process in the British education system, but teachers and head teachers must be.
 

Innula Zenovka

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I don't give much for its chances in the Lords, but I think this is simply Johnson's political theatre now -- "We did all we could but the unelected lords stabbed us in the back to frustrate the will of the people."
 
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