Brexit.

[Khamon]

It would seem to be the fastest way to resolve it with the minimum mess. Actually the best would have been to treat the vote as what it was advertised as: ADVISORY. Not something that needed to be triggered right away, debate the pros and cons first.

The problem is someone needs to fall on their sword to withdraw it. Politicians as a subspecies are notorious for not doing that often, no matter what country they are from.

I reckon that a delegation of Scottish MPs intend to visit Brussels to discuss the option. One of them referenced the plan in the question session we saw on CSPAN yesterday evening. The PM's response was that it would never happen. In fact the entire session consisted of the following:

MP: The EU will have controlling influence over UK trade agreements
PM: The EU will have no influence over UK trade agreements

MP: Brexit will destroy the Scottish fishing industries
PM: Brexit will have no economic effect on the Scottish fishing industries

MP: A soft border will be detrimental to Ireland, NI, the UK, and the EU
PM: Everyone will tolerate the soft border in Ireland and no issues will arise from it

MP: The supposed Brexit savings are being paid to the EU in this agreement
PM: The Brexit savings will be used to shore up public services as promised

MP: We are expressing legitimate and practical concerns
PM: Y'all are dumb as fence posts and can't read

ETA: corrected on to no

 

[Chin Rey]

PM: Everyone will tolerate the soft border in Ireland and on issues will arise from it

Please tell me that wasn't a typo!

It never occured to me until now that PM is MP spelled backwards. Coincidence? I think not.

 

[Khamon]

Sorry, it was a typo, and has been corrected.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Background -- the House of Commons voted last week (with the government abstaining) to require the government to publish the full legal advice it's received from the Attorney General on the Withdrawal Agreement. This is very usual -- legal advice is normally confidential.

The government, again very unusually, has refused to comply with the instruction. Instead, the AG published a precis of the advice he'd given, and came to the House to answer detailed questions.

This isn't enough for the opposition parties (including the DUP, on whose support the government depend, and who are probably more worried about the advice, as it relates to the NI "backstop" , than is anyone else), and they've asked to debate the matter first thing tomorrow, Tuesday.

Mr Speaker agrees. The glare he gives the government Chief Whip is quite fierce

 

[Myficals]

What the? If I was running a pharmacy and had to stockpile drugs top priority would go to lifesaving ones. I would not even worry about drugs like that until I already had at least a year's supply of every lifesaving drug on hand.

The story is clickbait. The company in question specialises in sexual dysfunction, hence why viagra and not say, insulin or amoxicillin. In any case, important drugs (anything that's on this list for instance) is normally stockpiled by manufacturers and distributors as a matter of course, and a quick googling indicates that there is quite a bit of "over and above" stockpiling going on across the board in preparation for Brexit.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I don't much care for Momentum's cult-like devotion to Jeremy Corbyn but they've made a very good video here:

 

[Khamon]

Khamon fails to grok backstop.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Khamon fails to grok backstop.

So does the Government, some would say.

Northern Ireland has featured heavily in discussions about Brexit.

Both the UK and the EU want to avoid a physical border - with guard posts and checks - between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (here's why).

But trying to find a way to avoid this if the UK leaves the EU without agreeing a trade deal has proved problematic.

So they've agreed to put in place a backstop - that's a sort of safety net to make sure a hard border never happens.

It would mean that Northern Ireland - but not the rest of the UK - would still follow some EU rules on things such as food products.

The Northern Ireland "backstop" is meant to be a last resort - the prime minister insists that if all goes as planned it will never be used.

Brexit: A really simple guide

Pro-Brexit hardliners object that the "backstop" -- the guarantees necessary to ensure there's no hard border between NI and the RoI -- represents an open-ended commitment to a customs union with the EU, which is anathema to them.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

Since the government can't find a solution to the NI border issue now, the Backstop kinda seems permanent. Staring at the problem for a few more years won't solve it.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Yes, that's exactly what the Hard Brexit crowd object to -- they fear (not unreasonably) that we could be locked into a permanent customs union without any say in making the rules. But this was obvious from the start. It's so infuriating that perfectly obvious problems like this were blythely dismissed by people like Johnson and Gove for so long.

 

[Kara Spengler]

The story is clickbait. The company in question specialises in sexual dysfunction, hence why viagra and not say, insulin or amoxicillin. In any case, important drugs (anything that's on this list for instance) is normally stockpiled by manufacturers and distributors as a matter of course, and a quick googling indicates that there is quite a bit of "over and above" stockpiling going on across the board in preparation for Brexit.

I am going to guess that is a sample and not current? Some of the anticonvulsants are pretty much useless.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

The European Court of Justice's Advocate General has given a non-binding opinion that the UK may, if it chooses, revoke its A50 notification unilaterally.

Law officer says UK can cancel Brexit

This opinion is non-binding, but the full court generally (though by no means always) follows the AG's opinion.

The full court will deliver a judgment "at a later date," which is apparently expected to be before Christmas.

I find this encouraging, since it reminds MPs that we don't have to jump off that cliff (with or without a parachute) if we don't want to.

 

[Daniel Voyager]

Just one week to go until the vote.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

David Allen Green (respected British legal commentator and lawyer) analyses the Advocate General's (non-binding) opinion: Evernote link because FT Paywall.

Tl;dr If the full court adopts this opinion, it's clearly good news for remainers but withdrawing the A50 notification is still going to be difficult in the time available.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

The government must be feeling that “When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions,” as Hamlet Act IV, Scene V, was so fond of remarking.

Not only has the Advocate General suggested the UK can unilaterally withdraw the A50 notification but parliament has voted 311 to 293 to find the government in contempt of parliament for failing to disclose the full legal advice it's received on the Withdrawal Agreement. The advice will now be published tomorrow, it seems.

Furthermore, parliament has just voted to ensure that, if (more like when) the main motion on the EU withdrawal agreement is defeated at the end of the five day debate that's just starting, and if the government then come back in January, as they will have to, parliament will be able to order the government not to implement a "No Deal" WTO-terms hard Brexit.

See Full Brexit legal advice to be published after government loses vote and Theresa May opens main Brexit debate after three Commons defeats – Politics live for more details.

Things are not looking too good for the government. At last reality may be catching up with them, after two-and-half very long years.

We're not out of the woods yet, by a long way, but I'm feeling somewhat more optimistic about the chances of reversing Brexit than I was a week ago. I've never seen it as a foregone conclusion, and today's events have certainly made it considerably less likely than it seemed some months ago.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Well, even if the parliament gets the full legal advise, I guess there's not so much standing in it what's going to be a surprise or would change much.

And if the deal gets rejected, the problem is still not within the government, but the parliament itself, which is split into two opposing fractions which don't have to tell much each other.

And given the fact that there are so many Hard Brexit lovers in it, it would be a tough call I guess to be able to tell the government not to go for a No Deal Brexit.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

And given the fact that there are so many Hard Brexit lovers in it, it would be a tough call I guess to be able to tell the government not to go for a No Deal Brexit.

I don't know how you come to that conclusion. All the opposition parties plus the Government and most Conservative MPs are opposed to "Hard Brexit." The votes for a "Hard Brexit" simply aren't there.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

It was the impression I got while talking with my British colleagues here in London; might be though I got it wrong.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I don't think anyone knows how Brexit will work out but, at least to my mind, a "Hard Brexit" is the least likely of all the possible outcomes. It's not impossible (as a result of accident rather than anyone's plan) but I don't think it's at all probable.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Nigel Farage QUITS Ukip in protest over new leader Gerard Batten's appointment of Tommy Robinson as adviser on 'Muslim rape gangs'