Brexit.

[Sid]

All this chaos in December has me wondering what HM's Christmas Speech will be like.

"We abdicate. Have a good one".

 

[Tigger]

Small but amusing note on the legal advice - which has now been published in full.

Originally the AG presented a summary of his advice to parliament, which was a document 43 pages long.
The full advice has now been presented which is a letter consisting of 6 pages.
Somehow the summary grew to be over 7 times the size of the document it was summarising.

On the positive side, the DUP could hardly be more angry at the content of those pages and it seems like the "supply and confidence" deal is now deader than the entire population of Dodos.

Tone of full Brexit legal advice is very different

 

[Luisa Land]

Well for a foreigner like me the whole uk-situation becomes more and more confusing....

In former times one saw mainly 2 parties in the UK Parliament, with often 2 different views. Sometimes there was a minority within one party with a different view. But after a few weeks or seldom months of fighting / discussions the outcome was predictable.
Now we read about a lot of different groups within a party with different attitudes sometimes with clear aims, often without. the groups also constantly changing (at least some of them) Coaltions between MPs of different parties are build, fighting against other groups of the same parties.


The german leading weekly "Die Zeit" remind s on the 700year old tradition of the british Parliament and writes
"What no war, no revolution effectuated, Brexit accomplishes it: the Parliament at "the edge of a nervous breakdown", in the mood of despair"

Brexit: House of Chaos

 

[Innula Zenovka]

All this chaos in December has me wondering what HM's Christmas Speech will be like.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Well for a foreigner like me the whole uk-situation becomes more and more confusing....

In former times one saw mainly 2 parties in the UK Parliament, with often 2 different views. Sometimes there was a minority within one party with a different view. But after a few weeks or seldom months of fighting / discussions the outcome was predictable.
Now we read about a lot of different groups within a party with different attitudes sometimes with clear aims, often without. the groups also constantly changing (at least some of them) Coaltions between MPs of different parties are build, fighting against other groups of the same parties.


The german leading weekly "Die Zeit" remind s on the 700year old tradition of the british Parliament and writes
"What no war, no revolution effectuated, Brexit accomplishes it: the Parliament at "the edge of a nervous breakdown", in the mood of despair"

Brexit: House of Chaos

The problem is that, whatever happens next, there's no majority in the House of Commons for it to happen, whether that it is accept the Withdrawal Agreement, Crash out of the EU with no agreement, or Remain.

Some MPs on both sides -- and it's often difficult to be sure in a particularly case if they are serious but badly misinformed or if they're simply mendacious (though some, like Boris Johnson, are probably both) --- seem to think it's still possible to renegotiate terms with the EU 27, but that's complete fantasy.

The simple fact of the matter is -- as some of us argued at the time of the referendum -- that the only way to enjoy the same advantages of EU membership that we currently have is to remain a full member of the EU. There's no two ways round it -- people might argue that some benefits to be gained by leaving outweigh particular disadvantages, but they've never made that case at all, since the whole basis of the Leave campaign was that there were no disadvantages to leaving the EU and, on the contrary, there would be more than enough pie in the sky for everyone.

I can see the logic that led Theresa May to appoint David Davies, Boris Johnson and Dr Liam Fox to the three key Brexit posts (well, in Fox's case it's a non-job, but it keeps him out of mischief), since that way they can't avoid the blame for the fiasco for which they campaigned, but the problem is that this has meant that for the last two-and-a-half years the government have had to pretend that all the problems inherent in leaving are just "remoaners" not being able to accept "the will of the people."

What we're seeing is reality crashing in around the government and more and more MPs coming to recognise that the best option is somehow to renege on their previous position and remain in the EU.

The Opposition are similarly divided, though less obviously so. This is partly because, while most Labour MPs (the vast majority) want to remain in the EU, about 60% of them represent constituencies that voted "Leave." That doesn't -- to my mind -- mean that they should now support "Leave" simply because their constituency voted that way, but obviously it's a consideration that they have to bear in mind.

To my mind, we're seeing the pro-Remain people on both sides (and this includes Kier Starmer, who runs the Brexit team for Labour) trying to work towards a situation where ignoring the Referendum and revoking the A50 declaration is possible, but that's very difficult and has to be taken one step at a time. They're only going to get one shot at this, and they have to get it right.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

That is, of course, the problem. The default if no action is taken is leaving with no agreement, a hard Brexit. No sensible person wants that outcome, but every other outcome requires some degree of action and it is unclear that any of those actions can get enough support in the necessary quarters to happen.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

"We abdicate. Have a good one".

"We have come to realize that some of our recent experiments, such as Parliament, have not lived up to expectations. We shall be resuming Our God-given role as absolute monarch of United Kingdom and the North American Colonies below Canada. You are most welcome and a Happy Christmas to all."

 

[Innula Zenovka]

That is, of course, the problem. The default if no action is taken is leaving with no agreement, a hard Brexit. No sensible person wants that outcome, but every other outcome requires some degree of action and it is unclear that any of those actions can get enough support in the necessary quarters to happen.

I think the most likely plan is a second referendum, offering the choice of this deal (or a renegotiated one, if the EU agree) and remain. That's the only clear way to resolve the problem.

 

[Chin Rey]

But that kind of reasoning undercuts May's strategy which apparently is against the interest of the state.

Did you really intend to say May's strategy is against the interest of the state or was that a Freudian slip? It's absolutely lovely anyway.

 

[Ashiri]

I think the most likely plan is a second referendum, offering the choice of this deal (or a renegotiated one, if the EU agree) and remain. That's the only clear way to resolve the problem.

Could that be done in the time remaining?

 

[Porsupah Ree]

Not that I remotely expect the monarchy to step into this briar patch, but speaking purely hypothetically, might HRH be able to be the one to withdraw Article 50, if there proved to be no will in Parliament to actually agree on a way forward? Even if only in the most technical sense, she does remain Head of State, with the government beneath her.

Bonus: watching the hard-core Brexiteers' heads explode as the balance up pursuing their dogma versus loyalty to the Queen. ^_^

 

[Porsupah Ree]

Perhaps some Labour MPs' positions in opposing Brexit may be easing:

More voters than ever before think Brexit is a mistake, new poll finds

More voters than ever before think the decision to leave the EU was a mistake, a new poll has found. Just 38 per cent of people believe the UK was right to vote for Brexit, while almost half (49 per cent) think it was the wrong decision.

The gap is the widest recorded by YouGov since the referendum, while the number believing Brexit was a mistake is at its highest level and those thinking it was right at its lowest.

Of course, that's only the average result - to really answer the question, we'd need to have a poll within those specific areas, rather than a presumably national poll. Even one focusing at the top n Brexit-supporting constituencies would be interesting to see.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Could that be done in the time remaining?

Realistically, I think the EU would need to agree to an extension to allow time for the referendum to take place. Provided it's a good-faith application on a referendum to ratify or remain, I gather they would probably be willing, not least because Britain crashing out without an agreement is something everyone (other than the Brexit Taliban) wants to avoid.

 

[detrius]

Nigel Farage QUITS Ukip in protest over new leader Gerard Batten's appointment of Tommy Robinson as adviser on 'Muslim rape gangs'

Romanians are of course EU citizens and wouldn't need traffickers to enter another EU country.

Farage is and always has been a racist and racism has been an integral part of his politics.

He's just the kind of guy who hides the swastikas and steel-capped boots behind bow-ties and business suits to make racism more acceptable.

This is just a rat leaving a sinking ship.

When he finally dies, the words "racist, liar and traitor to our country" need to be put on his tombstone.

 

[Tigger]

Did you really intend to say May's strategy is against the interest of the state or was that a Freudian slip? It's absolutely lovely anyway.

Whether Veritable meant to say it or not, it is entirely true.

 

[Tigger]

Realistically, I think the EU would need to agree to an extension to allow time for the referendum to take place. Provided it's a good-faith application on a referendum to ratify or remain, I gather they would probably be willing, not least because Britain crashing out without an agreement is something everyone (other than the Brexit Taliban) wants to avoid.

This is why it's so important to get May's deal voted down. There is no way to re-negotiate, the EU will not agree and there is no time left for it.
Once May's deal is dead there become only two options, no deal or no brexit. At which point Parliament has to face reality.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Did you really intend to say May's strategy is against the interest of the state or was that a Freudian slip? It's absolutely lovely anyway.

For sure enough many MPs have clearly said exactly that - that May's strategy does not benefit the state at all, and is against it.

 

[Kara Spengler]

I am sure the VPN traffic to the BBC site would be interesting if it could be reliably calculated. Probably more people going there for the news than things like dramas.

 

[Sid]

The only thing I'm interested in is the outcome of the debates, not the debates itself, to be honest.

 

[Kara Spengler]

Leave 'very likely' won Brexit referendum due to illegal overspending, Oxford professor to tell High Court

For those of us more used to US election laws ...