Brexit.

[Free]

Well, we have koalas and minions.

That sort of interbreeding gets you something more akin to a dog, not a cat.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

The petition hit 5 million signatures a little while ago

 

[Sid]

So at least 12 million more to go?

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Sure, let's do some more tribal dancing. No matters of any importance on the table, so why not have some fun finding a new MP?
Who knows, we even might get some extra air time on the BCC commenting on the new MP. So let's do it.
But not before Tuesday afternoon please, because I have an appointment with my hairdresser in the morning.

Sid, I'm sorry but I don't think you appreciate how serious is the political crisis here.

There's currently no majority in Parliament for any course of action and Theresa May is a big part of the problem.

Getting rid of her will, it is hoped, enable a new PM to build a parliamentary coalition behind some serious proposals he or she can take back the the EU 27, unhampered by the previous contradictory promises and commitments represented by TM's "red lines."

For once, this isn't Parliament doing "tribal dancing" or whatever. It's Parliament trying to force the Executive to negotiate seriously, and to show some flexibility and honesty, with the EU negotiators.

We're in this mess, in great part, because we have a Prime Minister who is uniquely unqualified for, and dysfunctional in, the position into which she's blundered, dragging the rest of us with her.

I can understand your -- everyone's -- frustration with the UK at the moment.

Many people in the UK share that frustration, I assure, and a lot of them were on that march yesterday and have signed the petition. Replacing TM is the first step to resolving the log-jam other than by crashing out with no deal at all, which would be a disaster for both the UK and the EU.

 

[Sid]

There is no majority for TM's Brexit. There is no majority for a hard Brexit. There is no majority for any form of soft Brexit. There is no majority for remain. I don't see a new PM solving that problem within a few weeks.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

There is no majority for TM's Brexit. There is no majority for a hard Brexit. There is no majority for any form of soft Brexit. There is no majority for remain. I don't see a new PM solving that problem within a few weeks.

One of the main reasons there's no majority for anything at the moment is that, rather than seeking to build a cross-party consensus, Theresa May has done everything she can to reduce the question to the Withdrawal Agreement (on terms imposed by her unilateral and contradictory "red lines") vs No Deal vs Revoke A50.

She's not tried to create a majority. Rather, she's simply sought to threaten and bludgeon people into supporting a Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration that no one much likes. And the reason no one much likes them is that they attempt to combine her contradictory promises and thus satisfy no one.

Possible solutions -- I don't know whether they would be acceptable to the EU or not, but at least they would avoid the no-deal neither side wants -- might include accepting the Withdrawal Agreement subject to ratification by a second referendum or seeking to re-open negotiations with the EU27 on a different basis, such as a soft Brexit that included membership of the Customs Union and Single Market (for which there probably be cross-party majority).

An early General Election now seems inevitable, too, though I don't think it would help to have one right now.

Alternatively, and this is an unlikely outcome but could happen under a different PM, the UK could simply say, "This hasn't worked, and we're going to rescind the A50 notification. If we want to try again some years hence to leave, then a different government might do that*, having been elected on a platform that included realistic proposals for leaving. But this attempt just hasn't worked out."

That could happen, but not with Theresa May in charge.

The problem may be insoluble. I don't know. But I am sure that TM is a big part of the problem now, and removing her as PM would be a necessary first step to most sensible solutions.

*But please God, not again in my lifetime.

 

[Sid]

But what if Boris Johnson gets it, because every sensible Conservative (with ambitions for his/her career) will most likely think:"Whomever at this moment, but not me"?

 

[Tigger]

There's currently no majority in Parliament for any course of action and Theresa May is a big part of the problem.
...
Many people in the UK share that frustration, I assure, and a lot of them were on that march yesterday and have signed the petition. Replacing TM is the first step to resolving the log-jam other than by crashing out with no deal at all, which would be a disaster for both the UK and the EU.

However who is likely to replace her that isn't either as bad or worse? If she steps down the most likely replacement tory leaders are mouth foaming brexit ultras. If a general election is called it will be Corbyn or May's replacement. Corbyn will fare no better than May.

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

But what if Boris Johnson gets it, because every sensible Conservative (with ambitions for his/her career) will most likely think:"Whomever at this moment, but not me"?

Quite the capstone on the clown show that is the Tories since Thatcher.

 

[Porsupah Ree]

However who is likely to replace her that isn't either as bad or worse? If she steps down the most likely replacement tory leaders are mouth foaming brexit ultras.

It's a legitimate concern, but, consider that Sunday Times story - given the paper, I'd expect it to have some actually connected sources, and they're thinking May's most likely to step down for Lidington, MP for Aylesbury, who's apparently a Remainer. (And as such, not blessed by the ERG - but we saw their true power in the failure of their confidence vote)

 

[OrinB]

However who is likely to replace her that isn't either as bad or worse? If she steps down the most likely replacement tory leaders are mouth foaming brexit ultras. If a general election is called it will be Corbyn or May's replacement. Corbyn will fare no better than May.

Those candidates don’t actually want the job tforced upon them this time as there is no guarantee their political careers will continue long enough for them to have a prime ministerial tenure of any length for them to harvest goodwill to give them their knighthoods and a wealthy retirement.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I don't think Johnson is in with much of a chance. While he's undoubtedly very popular with the Conservative Associations, who decide between the last two candidates left in the race after Conservative MPs have voted in the preliminary rounds, I don't think his colleagues in the Parliamentary Conservative Party regard him very highly, either as a colleague or a potential leader.

Nor do I think that, right now, the Conservatives are looking for a long-term leader. They want someone to take over, navigate us through this horrible mess TM has put us into, if that's at all possible, and then to stand down while they choose a more permanent leader who can, they hope, lead them into a successful general election.

The serious leadership candidates -- Dominic Raab, Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt and the like -- are keeping very quiet at the moment (as, indeed, are Boris Johnson and Michael Gove). They don't want the job right now.

They want someone else to get us out of the mess, upsetting a lot of Conservatives in the process (which is going to happen, whatever the outcome) and then to step down, suitably rewarded, and let someone new take over with a clean slate.

That person, whoever it is, will then be able to say that, while they share colleagues' discontent with some aspects of whatever solution their predecessor was able to implement, that's now past history, and they want to get on with making it (whatever "it" turns out to be) work.

 

[Porsupah Ree]

The Guardian's run a little profile of Lidington:

‘Mr Europe’ David Lidington: the man who could replace May

Deputy PM is mooted as interim leader, but his pro-remain record would be a problem

www.theguardian.com

This stood out:

In an interview with the Observer during the referendum campaign in 2016, Lidington criticised Conservative colleagues who wanted to leave the bloc. “I do find it extraordinary that those who want Britain to leave the EU seem to hold to two utterly contradictory propositions at the same time,” he said. “Their first belief is that inside the EU we cannot achieve any meaningful change and that too often the other countries are in some sort of nefarious conspiracy against our interests. But their second belief, which they hold equally firmly, is that outside the EU these very same countries and governments would rush to give us some new deal that has all the benefits of EU membership with none of the things that apply to others.”

In that 2016 interview he also pointed to the positions of Switzerland and Norway, which are often held up as templates for Britain’s future outside the EU. “They both have higher EU migration rates than we do, they both have to pay into the EU budget, they both have to accept EU rules and regulations as the price for access to a free-trade single market. There is no getting away from that. I think the leave campaign is still in a state of confusion about what they actually mean by leave.”

I admit, I've become rather used to Conservative gaslighting. To read (albeit from 2016; he may have new opinions now) one actually speaking from the same reality I know is rather jarring.

 

[Tigger]

Surprising no one.....

Brexit trade deals will be worse than current EU deals, says Liam Fox's former trade chief

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Kara Spengler]

That sort of interbreeding gets you something more akin to a dog, not a cat.

Well, it looks like the latest like button only allows you to pick one or the other.

 

[Kara Spengler]

Hmmm ....

 

[Porsupah Ree]

The Guardian's got a reasonable summary of Sunday's happenings, or lack thereof.

Brexit: leave-backing MPs pile on pressure as May’s deal drifts away

High-stakes Chequers summit breaks up without agreement

www.theguardian.com

Basically, the Brexit Taliban - with Rees-Mogg, Davis, and Baker present - remains implacable, and Johnson's column in the Torygraph says the UK should leave the EU immediately. Meanwhile, Lidington and Gove are, at least in public, fully behind May. Which all adds up to a big case of "great job, nothing needs to change", which in turn suggests May may yank Tuesday's MV3.

If May doesn't present her WA, what then? Could the Commons present and vote on it regardless, allowing for the submission of amendments hopefully to include Kyle-Wilson?

Monday appears to be the day for various indicative votes, so we'll see if Saturday's brought about any less nervousness about canning the whole wretched misadventure, or - perhaps more likely - offering a new referendum.

(Has any Brexiteer, recently, offered any actual reasoning for their position? Uniformly, at least in the press, it all seems to be the same "Will of the People" and variations on that theme, without ever explaining why this all such an amazing proposition that must be rammed through at any cost whatsoever)

 

[Ariane]

From Reddit:

 

[Tigger]

Floppy haired dickhead thinks he's Moses....