Brexit.

[detrius]

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Yikes!

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I don't think I can link the video directly but it's worth watching

 

[Porsupah Ree]

Yikes!

As Robert Peston's intro noted, we now find this mess getting even messier. ^_^;

So, with this additional factor in mind, how does that flowchart change, or is it "only" the timing? It seems to me that assuming the EU grants an A50 extension (which they've been signalling may come with conditions, perhaps alluding to a referendum, given the inability of Parliament to come to any conclusion), May has to act either immediately on her return from Brussels this week, or maybe as late as Monday, in order to avoid the world's biggest ball of legislative yarn from unraveling.

 

[Kara Spengler]

You can put all three options on the table - just use some form of ranked choice voting.

What I was thinking. It is not like you can go back and say 'A or B' again in a few months. You need a way to say 'what would people have picked if a certain option is off the table'.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

As Robert Peston's intro noted, we now find this mess getting even messier. ^_^;

So, with this additional factor in mind, how does that flowchart change, or is it "only" the timing? It seems to me that assuming the EU grants an A50 extension (which they've been signalling may come with conditions, perhaps alluding to a referendum, given the inability of Parliament to come to any conclusion), May has to act either immediately on her return from Brussels this week, or maybe as late as Monday, in order to avoid the world's biggest ball of legislative yarn from unraveling.

So it would seem.

However, on reflection, it seems to me that this can't come as a surprise to May and HMG at least, since the government lawyers must have made her aware of the timetabling issues as soon as she started considering asking for a postponement.

So she must, last week, when she reluctantly said she'd ask for either a short or a long extension, have known she'd have to set the Statutory Instrument process in motion as soon as possible.

In an emergency, I'm sure sure it could be pushed through even faster, but it would get messy.

 

[Galen McGinnis]

I'm sure Larry will be fine.

 

[detrius]

Much as I like the idea of using the Australian System in England, ARE YOU FUCKING CRAZY? You wouldn't need gunpowder, exploding heads would bring down the Houses of Parliament.

Sounds all good to me.

What's the downside?

 

[Ariane]

 

[Porsupah Ree]

Theresa May to ask for three-month Brexit delay

Revolt by pro-Brexit cabinet ministers forces PM to request only short extension from EU

www.theguardian.com

Main points:

- May's asking for only a three month extension, with the Cabinet revolting over anything longer
- Juncker doesn't think a decision on an extension will be made this week

Quite where that leaves the exit date.. might Parliament have to proceed with altering it by three months before the decision's been made on whether to grant it?

 

[Daniel Voyager]

Theresa May to ask for three-month Brexit delay

Revolt by pro-Brexit cabinet ministers forces PM to request only short extension from EU

www.theguardian.com

Main points:

- May's asking for only a three month extension, with the Cabinet revolting over anything longer
- Juncker doesn't think a decision on an extension will be made this week

Quite where that leaves the exit date.. might Parliament have to proceed with altering it by three months before the decision's been made on whether to grant it?

It's probably going to be left until the last minute late next week. They should dissolve government and start again.

 

[Sid]

Ah well..... still 9 days and a handful of hours and minutes to go, so no worries. No worries at all. No, no worries whatsoever... no, no......
what could there possibly go wrong.

That Juncker wants to wait until next week can IMHO only mean 2 things:
The EU27 plays along with the game TM is trying to play with high pressure on the UK parliament to say yes to the WA.
Or (and that frightens me more) Juncker knows, that not all 27 members will agree on an extension at the summit this week and there have to be additional talks to get them (hopefully) supporting a delay in the Brexit date.

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Ah well..... still 9 days and a handful of hours and minutes to go, so no worries. No worries at all. No, no worries whatsoever... no, no......

IsN't MoDeRn PoLiTiCs ExCiTiNg?

 

[Sid]

They are damn good at creating a cliffhanger, that's for sure.

 

[detrius]

For those who don't know: Arte, the Strasbourg-based "European culture TV channel", is a cooperation between German and French public broadcasting services.

It's a great little channel with intelligent programming and dedicated to cultivating the friendship between all nations - but if you show it to a Brexiteer, this is all they'll see:

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Ah well..... still 9 days and a handful of hours and minutes to go, so no worries. No worries at all. No, no worries whatsoever... no, no......
what could there possibly go wrong.

That Juncker wants to wait until next week can IMHO only mean 2 things:
The EU27 plays along with the game TM is trying to play with high pressure on the UK parliament to say yes to the WA.
Or (and that frightens me more) Juncker knows, that not all 27 members will agree on an extension at the summit this week and there have to be additional talks to get them (hopefully) supporting a delay in the Brexit date.

Thread by Peter Foster, laying out various options under consideration.

One possibility is EU offering her only until April 12 to pass her deal (deadline for starting to organise UK participation in EU elections) and telling her that if it's not settled by then, she has to go for a much longer postponement.

 

[Da5id Weatherwax]

Private Eye nails it again....

 

[Tigger]

Im seeing a lot of suggestions that Macron will veto May's extension, and would possibly veto ANY request for an extension. Nothing concrete yet though.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

I really wonder why France would do that - and what's in it for them.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I really wonder why France would do that - and what's in it for them.

Maybe he's unhappy about the short time-scale, and wants guarantees that the UK will be ready to participate in the EU elections if WA isn't agreed in time.

That's my big concern -- at the moment both the Conservatives and (it appears) Labour are making policy on the hoof, with no real thought for what happens if and when things go wrong.

The problem is that May is in such a weak position domestically, and both the Conservative and Labour parties are so badly divided on what should happen next, it really needs the EU to put its foot down and insist on realistic proposals, otherwise we'll be here again in a couple of weeks' time when the deadline for starting the Election arrangements comes.

I'd also, if I were the EU27, want some guarantees about how the UK government will behave during any extension -- I'd be worried about (for example) Boris Johnson taking over as PM and then pulling Boris-like stunts like threatening to veto the EU budget if he doesn't get his way. There's certainly a non-zero chance of that happening if the EU doesn't protect itself.