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Beebo Brink

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*massive human die off.
:qft:
For all the solutions that are generally debated, drastically reducing our population never appears to be on the table. And yet it's central to so much of the damage that we do, from deforestation to greenhouse gas emissions.

Telling people to stop having children -- which is the only realistic long-term solution when we live on a finite planet -- is even more of a non-starter than telling them to give up petroleum products.
 
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:qft:
For all the solutions that are generally debated, drastically reducing our population never appears to be on the table. And yet it's central to so much of the damage that we do, from deforestation to greenhouse gas emissions.

Telling people to stop having children -- which is the only realistic long-term solution when we live on a finite planet -- is even more of a non-starter than telling them to give up petroleum products.
It isn't a suggested solution, just a certain possibility. If 99% of us die we might solve global warming or it might be too late anyway.
 
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Brenda Archer

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Unfortunately that ship has sailed at least a decade ago; even the goals of Paris 2015 have become obsolete. If we really want to make an impact we need to act until 2030, not until 2050.

Energy consumption in a country typically is splitted between households, transportation, industry and trade/services area. Looking at below graph for example and comparing it to other countries you will notice that the American industry is an energy hog. If we really want to reduce and cut CO2 emissions the only way in a capitalism world is emitting CO2 in the long run so expensive that people finally have to move their lazy asses and look for alternatives; people need to invest. The industry needs to invest, too.



And remodeling those areas at large can only be disruptive, nothing more, nothing less. But disruption must not always be come with bad experiences - the iPhone was disruptive, but in a positive kind of way looking at how ubiquitious it is nowadays.

Only if energy becomes expensive enough and there is suddenly a demand for low fuel consumption cars in America people will get them. Or switch over directly to Tesla. Because that's the simple logic of capitalism, as long as something is dirt cheap people will flock around it; if you want something to change it needs to get much more expensive.

In short I am convinced that it cannot be done without stepping on many peoples toes, who might cry in the short term. But that's the price of doing over three decades doing just "business as usual" and doing nothing to improve the situation.

So in short if cutting down emissions is really the goal, one viable mechanism of choise is an over the years increasing CO2 emission tax. And of course people are going to cry about it, because they always do, but that's the way it is and in the long end the question is: can we just move on like that, or do we need change? If we come to the conclusion that we do need change, our lifestyle has to change and get a much much lower carbon footprint. Period.
With a large gas tax you’re effectively calling for rural people to move to the cities, which they can’t easily do because of unaffordable rents and housing. If they did, the cities would have to be rebuilt. It’s not a ten year plan.

When I lived in rural NH the nearest jobs were all thirty minutes to an hour away and no transit. Even people in urban areas get forced into commuting by skyrocketing housing costs.

Every part of an issue like climate change has to be addressed with social justice in mind. It also has to be locally implemented. Rural areas could go with electrified transportation and greater use of wind and solar. This is probably going to be cheaper and it’s not trading one set of problems for another.

Electrification and making sure rural regions have internet would also allow economic activity to migrate out of urban cores, into small towns and regions that are economically depressed.
 

Brenda Archer

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So what I’m proposing is not a gas tax, but an electrification subsidy. Poor people drive old, barely functional cars but it’s going to require a subsidy to get them off the roads without causing unemployment. Too much unemployment tends to cause social disorder.

In other words, a lot of problems have different kinds of solutions and austerity is definitely not the only one or even the best one.

Most poor people here are already holding down their personal costs as much as they can. I certainly do not take extra road trips out of convenience. It’s money I need for necessities.
 
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Chalice Yao

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It isn't a suggested solution, just a certain possibility. If 99% of us die we might solve global warming or it might be too late anyway.
Dark twist:
If *that* only 'might' solve it, all the other stuff we do definitely won't.
 
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Wow, rephrasing Nietzsche. Must be some sort of ubermensa.
 
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Wow, rephrasing Nietzsche. Must be some sort of ubermensa.
A friend of mine in the 1980s with whom I've sadly lost touch, a university lecturer in philosophy whose reputation for being a lesbian feminist was as widespread as was her reputation as a dominatrix with a particular interest in lesbian BDSM, used to have huge fun lecturing students on the meaning of the line in Thus Spoke Zarathustra, 'When you go to woman, take the whip along,' though I've always thought Lou Andreas-Salomé was the one most likely to be brandishing the whip in that relationship (unless Nietzsche had in mind his sister when he wrote that, in which case who can blame him?).
 

danielravennest

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"What does not kill me simply postpones the inevitable," as Nietzsche probably meant to say.
"God is dead." -- Nietzsche

"Nietzsche is dead." -- God

Source:
Bathroom graffiti in the physics building of Columbia University, when I was a student there.
 
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With the following addendum, it's been around universities for 50 years or more:

"Do be do be do." Frank Sinatra
 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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You know we need to address climate change urgently. I know we need to address climate change urgently. The devil in the details is addressing how to get the general public on board with addressing climate change urgently. Beebs is right: Without immediate consequences, people don't see the urgency and are reluctant to leave their comfort zones. However, the most guaranteed way to lose the war on climate change is to force personal and societal change suddenly and drastically, particularly when the average person simply can't afford to make that transition.
Indeed, but you see the issue is that politics didn't act on it on time when we still could effortlessly do so and we are going to waste more time if this thing is still to be allowed to be a showstopper. So the clock is now ticking quite fast while the time space decreases madly.

So in the end if we are serious about it, then politics has to move out the people slowly out of their comfort zones, otherwise it is never going to happen. Hence the idea of a carbon tax. Such a tax though is only going to show the wanted effects it you are going to feel its presence right from the beginning, not with an overwhelming presence - but the impact needs to be felt, and to increase over time. Otherwise a change is never going to happen soon enough.

Sweden for example introduced its carbon tax already in 1991. Anyway... if mankind is too dumb to turn the boat around, then so be it., then all what is coming to us is well deserved.
 
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Beebo Brink

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So in the end if we are serious about it, then politics has to move out the people slowly out of their comfort zones...
You make this broad, vague statement that has no tether to reality, at least not in the U.S. "Politics" is elected government officials who are often controlled by oil industry interests and vulnerable to the vote of the people. This is no mechanism for "has to" that isn't dictated by those groups. Government is also constrained by rule of law, which means new policies move very slowly and in a divided country barely at all. Government also has limits into what behavior it can demand.

Hence the idea of a carbon tax. Such a tax though is only going to show the wanted effects it you are going to feel its presence right from the beginning, not with an overwhelming presence - but the impact needs to be felt, and to increase over time.
This idea will have a very difficult time becoming actual legislation that is approved by both our House and Senate. For this type of policy they will follow, not lead. Significant pressure will have to come from the voters.

In the U.S., the government is unlikely to lead the charge against climate change. They will follow the times and enact change when it's safe to do so, when it's not a losing issue at the voting booth. There is no mechanism for moving people outside of their comfort zone, unless industry suddenly decides to go green with a vengeance. I'm not holding my breath for that.

Otherwise a change is never going to happen soon enough.
Yes, exactly. Which has been my prediction for a very long time, given what I'm seeing of human psychology and our quasi-democratic government. Meanwhile, China -- which is not tethered by these democratic institutions -- is leading a construction movement of mammoth proportions, and Brazil is burning to the ground. So non-democratic government isn't doing any better.

Sweden for example introduced its carbon tax already in 1991.
If the U.S. were Sweden, Bernie Sanders would be president right now.

Anyway... if mankind is too dumb to turn the boat around, then so be it., then all what is coming to us is well deserved.
We're not stupid, we're just facing a problem that exceeds our psychological and cultural ability to cope, especially on a global scale. But I'll concede that "stupid" works as shorthand.
 
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Stupid. It's just a word I guess. It seems to me a large portion of the American populace is stupid. Maybe I'm stupid for not understanding them.

 

Beebo Brink

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Stupid. It's just a word I guess. It seems to me a large portion of the American populace is stupid. Maybe I'm stupid for not understanding them.
To be utterly pedantic, I think calling contrary opinions "stupid" is misleading and not very helpful. For the most part, I believe that people DO vote for their own interests, and when we're baffled by the results it's usually because what WE consider to be in someone's best interest just doesn't match their reality.

For instance, a common lens (or set of blinders) involves judging people for voting against their own economic interests. Calling them stupid for doing this rests on the assumption that money is the primary motivation for everyone's actions, or that it should be. That actually says more about the "us" than the "them" we're deriding.

I'm more inclined to see fear, rather than stupidity, as the motivating force behind a lot of actions, especially for conservative voters. Conservatism is more than just a political ideology; it's a state of mind. There is a marked preference for the status quo and a fear response that is triggered by change and by differences.

So next time you're tempted to call someone stupid for an action you consider to be daft or inexplicable, try asking "What are they afraid of?" It tends to be much more illuminating. It doesn't make them right, but it could help explain why they're so wrong.
 
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Well, yeah that's all true Beebo. It's just frustrating reading that 30% of the population are big Trump supporters when he is so evil. They seem to have so much hate. I don't understand their motivation well. I wish I had a better understanding. He doesn't do anything good for them economically or any other way that i know of.
 

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Yup, the root problem is simply too many humans. Even if climate change weren't an issue our overconsumption of everything edible on this planet, our destruction of habitat for our own uses, our abuse of potable water sources, and the toxic pollution of our industries will catch up with us eventually. The longer we persist and the greater the population we carry on a global scale, the more massive will be the carnage at the other end.

As for what finally brings down the house of cards... gosh, so many strong contenders. If I had to pick a favorite, however, it would be a global pandemic cultivated in Asia or the tropics, bolstered by the increasingly warm temperatures.
It is what typically happens whenever a closed system has too many apex predators. Eventually the system has to do a reset. Assuming a die-off is not a palatable option the next two options are not to reproduce as fast (name a GOOD reason why 1st world countries need to have kids, just replace your population with immigrants) or start collonizing other places (yes, it will cost with current tech, but there are other good reasons to be a multiplanet species).
 
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